Introduction

• The purpose of continuation bets
  
• The role of position
  
• Continuation bets on the turn
  

When you don't have a pocket pair, you will only hit the flop for a made hand (pair or better) or a strong draw 1/3 of the time. You usually won't have a hand you can continue to play on the flop when your pre-flop raise gets called.

On the other hand, your opponents are in the same situation. Cases in which no one has a hand worth showing occur relatively often. This is where being the pre-flop aggressor gives you a decisive advantage: Your bet/raise before the flop signaled strength to your opponents.

This allows you to represent a strong hand. This can be enough to scare off opponents with marginal hands like small pocket pairs and weak top pairs, all of which have you beat. Your opponents are so intimidated by your pre-flop action that they don't want to stay on their marginal hands, even though they have the best hand at the moment.

You can win a lot of pots without hitting the flop by continuing your pre-flop aggression. This bet, which is intended to continue your pre-flop story and win the pot directly, is called a continuation bet, or contibet for short.

This article will introduce you to the factors that determine whether or not a continuation bet will be profitable. You will learn about the mathematics behind this move and the conditions that must be met for it to promise success. You will also learn about delayed continuation bets (when you wait for the turn to continue your pre-flop aggression) and 2nd barrels (when you make a second continuation bet on the turn after getting called on the flop).

The theory

A continuation bet is a bet made on or after the flop by the player who raised (or made the last raise) before the flop. The name basically says it all:

The pre-flop aggressor continues his aggression and bets (with the intention of winning the hand with this bet) even if he has not improved.

A bet is a continuation bet when:

• The bet is being made by the pre-flop aggressor, meaning he raised before the flop and has initiative (meaning he was also the last player to raise pre-flop).
• The pre-flop aggressor is allowed to bet on the flop (i.e. his wager is not a raise).
• The player making the contibet missed the flop, meaning he has neither a made hand nor a strong draw.

As you can see, you place a continuation bet when you are the pre-flop aggressor and missed the flop, but think you have a good chance at winning the hand with a bet.

You take advantage of the fact that your opponents usually won't hit a very good hand on the flop either and use the aggressive image you created with your pre-flop play to take down the pot with a bluff.

Your show of strength with your pre-flop raise will often intimidate your opponents enough for a continuation bet to be successful.

As with any bluff, the size of your bet and the probability that you will win the hand are closely related when it comes to determining the EV.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (10 handed)

Hero ($51.00)
SB ($48.00)

Pre-flop: Hero is CO with K, A .
6 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 1 folds, SB calls $1.75, 1 folds.

Flop: ($4.50) T , 2, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?;

All the conditions for a continuation bet are met in this example. The only question is: How often will you have to win the pot with your bluff bet for it to be +EV?

You bet $1.50 (1/3 pot) for a chance to win $4.50. This corresponds to 3:1 pot odds. You would therefore have to win the hand more than 25% of the time in order to make a profit.

You bet $2.25 (1/2 pot) for a chance to win $4.50. This corresponds to 2:1 pot odds. You would therefore have to win the hand more than 33% of the time in order to make a profit.

You bet $3 (2/3 pot) for a chance to win $4.50. This corresponds to 1.5:1 pot odds. You would therefore have to win more than 40% of the time in order to make a profit.

You bet $4.50 (pot size) to win $4.50. This corresponds to 1:1 pot odds. You would therefore have to win more than 50% of the time in order to make a profit.

You can see the logic:

The larger your continuation bet, the more often it must be successful for it to be profitable.

It is usually the case, as in this example, that you still have outs to win the hand even if your continuation bet does get called.

In this case you have a weak draw with your overcards. You assume you will be heads up with 4 discounted outs if you do not win the hand with your contibet. Keep this in mind when making your decision.

Let's look at the possible results assuming you will win another $10 on average when your opponent calls and you hit one of your 4 outs:

Your opponent folds to your continuation bet and you win $4.50.

Your opponent calls your continuation bet. The probability of hitting one of your 4 outs on the turn and win another $10 is app. 8.5%. The probability of missing and having to fold on the turn and losing $2.25 is app. 91.5%. Your average loss after getting called is: 0.085 * $10 + 0.915 * (-$2.25) = -$1.20875

You can now determine how often your opponent must fold to your continuation bet in order for this move to be break even (+/- 0).

0 = P(fold) * $4.5 + (1 – P(fold)) * -$1.20875

The result is: P(fold) = 0.21

In order for your continuation bet to be +EV your opponent must fold more than 21% of the time. This figure includes the possibility that you could still hit an out on the turn and have the best hand.

Of course, this calculation has been heavily reduced. The actual amount you will win if you hit one of your outs and the number of outs you can actually count on are, by necessity, rough estimations.

But it does give you an idea of how your outs influence the amount of fold equity you need to generate with your continuation bet in order for it to be +EV. You can also take a similar approach with gutshot draws. In general: The more willing your opponent is to pay, the more helpful is to have additional outs.