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hello all, i've been thinking about this hand of mine:

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with J , J .
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) K , 3 , 4 (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB.

according to korn, the hand was well played. i can see that. the raise will let me bring QQ to fold and stop a 6 outer like AQ, who doesn't know he has 6 outs, from seeing the river.

now i want to assume the following case:

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q , Q .
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) K , 3 , 4 (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls

Turn: (5.75 BB) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero???


in my view a clear call. and not a raise.

i think it's the classical way ahead/way behind situation, where my raise will only bring a worse hand to folding, like 99-JJ, which i don't want. and knowing i can fold if he 3 bets doesnt do me any good, since i could see the SD for 2 BB without running the risk of hitting a kamikaze bluff.
furthermore, there are no worse hands that have more than 3 outs against me. so i would rather let him pay the maximum if he's behind and win the minimum if i'm behind.

i'm posting this hand because i'm sometimes unsure when a calldown is preferable to a turn raise.

an old rule from korn is as follows: if you don't have a clue where you stand, then call when he bets and bet when he checks. in contrast to that, a more aggressive play is now being advocated and i wanted to see if i understand it all correctly and that my line of reasoning is not fundamentally flawed.

thx for comments!

 

centrefold:

 

EDIT: I didnt see that it was 6 maz. This just makes UTG more likely to have AQs and KQs...

If we assume that UTG has some sense in his head, he'll have a capping range from AA (6 times), KK (3 times), QQ (6 times), AK (12 times). You are ahead of an unlikely AQs (4 times) and behind an unlikely KQs (4 times).

Hand 1)
You are behind all hands in UTG's capping range with the exception of AQs (which is unlikely). That means  31:4=7.75:1 that you are behind (you are probably behind all 27 likely hands, since imo KQs and AQs should not be counted).

Therefore, it is good to wait until the turn, imo. Unlike in Korn's HU situations guide, you have an open raise from UTG before you and no possible steal raise from CO, BU, or SB. The probability that your opponent has a very good hand is therefore disproportionally larger. You are not trying to get "more value on the stronger hands." Therefore, I would also play raise/fold on the flop. You save yourself a BB that way. In my experience, slowplay against a UTG capper is deadly here.

Hand 2)
I'm no so sure if it's really a WA/WB situation. I would have to read about it again. But your position is not so different.

You have a hand o the lower end of the capping range of a halfway sensible UTG. You'll always lose to AA, KK, AK. But you're ahead of KQs and AQs (if you count them). The ratio changes, then to  21:8=2.625. If the UTG caps loosely, then you aren't doing to badly but are still behing. If he caps tightly, then you're behind 21 hands instead of just 27. A 22% improvement. Not overly cute. Therefore, I would hardly play differently from hand 1.

As a supplement:

With a relatively loose capping range, imo:

Quote:

Board: Kc 3h 4d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 16.1097 % 14.68% 01.43% { JdJs } Hand 2: 83.8903 % 82.46% 01.43% { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AKo } Board: Kc 3h 4d 7d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 14.2857 % 12.86% 01.43% { JdJs } Hand 2: 85.7143 % 84.29% 01.43% { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AKo }

against:

Quote:

Board: Kc 3h 4d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 29.6318 % 28.02% 01.61% { QdQs } Hand 2: 70.3682 % 68.76% 01.61% { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AKo } Board: Kc 3h 4d 7d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 28.8123 % 27.20% 01.61% { QdQs } Hand 2: 71.1877 % 69.57% 01.61% { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AKo }

if you're a bit looser still, it looks like this:

Quote:

Board: Kc 3h 4d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 35.1319 % 34.39% 00.75% { JdJs } Hand 2: 64.8681 % 64.12% 00.75% { JJ+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo } Board: Kc 3h 4d 7d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 37.4830 % 36.74% 00.75% { JdJs } Hand 2: 62.5170 % 61.77% 00.75% { JJ+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }

against

Quote:

Board: Kc 3h 4d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 47.6126 % 46.82% 00.79% { QdQs } Hand 2: 52.3874 % 51.59% 00.79% { JJ+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo } Board: Kc 3h 4d 7d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 50.0000 % 49.21% 00.79% { QdQs } Hand 2: 50.0000 % 49.21% 00.79% { JJ+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }

So if he's capping really loose pre-flop, it's a coin toss. Otherwise, you're behind the entire time. Whether  UTG would cap with Qjs, you must decide that for yourself...

 

 

Korn:

 

Here we must look at the numbers under certain assumptions.

Assumptions:


- If the opposition 3-bets the turn we're behind
- Our opponent will fold AQo, AJo etc. against a turn raise.
- Our opponent will fold QQ in 20% of cases against a turn raise, else he will calldown unimproved.
- Our opponent will fold TT, 99 etc. in 80% of cases against a turn raise, else he will calldown unimproved.
- Our opponent will only 3-bet the turn with AA and KK.
- If we raise the turn, our opponent calls and then bets the river we are behind.
- Our opponent will not check-raise on the river and will not check-fold except with K high.

So we give our opponent a cap range of

AK-AJ
AA-99

 

Centefold:

 

Hm. I forgot about the split.

EDIT: At korn's request, the pot is now considered to be 5 BB large.
EDIT: I won't consider JJ because of the split. 2 Outs = 4%, 3 Outs = 7% (rounded)

Hotte Hand 1 (JJ): I assume that we bet if the opponent checks at the river.

Let's go slowly forward.

We raise the turn:
Against AA: he 3 bets, we are behind. a fold has an EV of 0
Call: we hit our set: he bets, we raise, he calls. we don't hit our set: he bets, we fold.
(0.04 * 15) - (0.96 * 3) = -2.28


Against KK: he 3 bets, we are behind. a fold has an EV of 0
Call: wir treffen unser set: cap und verlust. wir treffen nicht: bet fold.
-(0.04 * 7) - (0.96 * 3) = -3.16


Against QQ: check/call from the opponent on the river
(0.2*6) + (0.04 * 11) - (0.76 * 3) = -0.64


Against TT,99:
(0.8 * 6) + (0.16 * 11) - (0.04*3) = +6.44


Against AK: he calls and bets the river. We lose without a set (we raise, he calls; we fold UI since we are behind according to our assumptions:
(0.04 * 13) - (0.96 * 2) = -1.4


Against AQo and worse: EV +6 (he always folds)
This rule doesn't apply because he will fold AQ and worse:

Quote:

- The opponent will not check raise on the river and won't check-fold except with K high

Against JJ (we've noted in the rules that he only folds QQ 20% of the time, but no matter): if it's split: we share the 5BB pot. We get everything from the turn and river back.
(0.2*6) + (0.8 * 2.5) = 3.2


Call-Down:
Against AA: (we bet raise call, if we hit our set)
(0.04 * 11) - (0.96 * 2) = -1.48


Against KK: (river will be capped if set is hit)
(0.04 * (-15)) - (0.96 * 2) = -2.52


Against AK::
(0.04 * 11) - (0.96 * 2) = -1.48


Against QQ: we hit: bet raise call. we miss: bet call
(0.04 * 11) - (0.96 * 2) = -1.48

Against TT,99: we lose if he hits his set. otherwise he check/calls (fold only with K high)
(0.96 * 9) - (0.04 * 2) = +8.56


Against AQ: we lose if he hits a Q. otherwise he plays check/fold:
(0.93 * 7) - (0.07 * 2) = +6.37


Against AJ: (bet raise call on the river, if he hits, check/fold, if he misses)
(0.93 * 7) + (0.07 * 11) = +7.28


Against JJ: in 100% of cases it's +2.5. We won't win on the turn and river, but we won't win either.

We're comparing:
Against AA: fold -8; raise -2.28; call-down: -1.48
Against KK: fold -8; raise -3.16; call-down: -2.52
Against QQ: raise: -0.64; call-down: -1.48
Against AK: raise: -1.4; call-down: -1.48
Against TT,99: raise: +6.44; call-down: +8.56
Against AQ: raise: +6; call-down: +6.37
Against AJ: raise: +6; call-down: +7.28
Against JJ: raise: +3.2; call-down: +2.5
If we now weight it according to the count of possible individual hands:
AA (6), KK (3), QQ (6), AK (12), TT (6), 99 (6), AQ (16), AJ (16), JJ (1) for a total of 72

for raise:
(6* (-2.28)+3*(-3.16)+6*(-0.64)+12*(-1.4)+12*6.44+32*6+3.2)/72 = 3.18

for call
(6*(-1.48)+3*(-2.52)+6*(-1.48)+12*(-1.48)+12*8.56+16*6.37+16*7.28+2.5)/72 = 3.9

I hope it's right this time. The trend is still the same.

 

for QQ:

AA, KK,AK,TT,99 stay the same. AQ is equivalent to AJ and vice-versa.

Raise:
The question is: opposition has JJ (call check bet call UI)
(0.96 * 13) - (0.04 * 4) = + 12.32

Split with QQ:
(0.2*6)+(0.8*2.5)=3.2


Call-Down
(0.04*11)-(0.04*2)+(0.92*9) = + 8.64

Split with QQ: +2.5

In total, we have:

for raise:
(6* (-2.28)+3*(-3.16)+6*12.32+12*(-1.4)+12*6.44+32*6+3.2)/72 = 4.31

for call
(6*(-1.48)+3*(-2.52)+6*8.64+12*(-1.48)+12*8.56+16*6.37+16*7.28+2.5)/72 = 4.74


The calldown is ahead here as well. I didn't type it all into the calculator 10x or anything, but it seems correct.

 

hm. pokerstove delivers this:

Quote:

--- 63,360 games 0.016 secs 3,960,000 games/sec Board: Kc 3h 4d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 49.7648 % 48.98% 00.78% { JdJs } Hand 2: 50.2352 % 49.45% 00.78% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ } --- --- 2,816 games 0.005 secs 563,200 games/sec Board: Kc 3h 4d 7d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 53.3381 % 52.56% 00.78% { JdJs } Hand 2: 46.6619 % 45.88% 00.78% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ } --- --- 63,360 games 0.015 secs 4,224,000 games/sec Board: Kc 3h 4d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 60.3709 % 59.59% 00.78% { QdQs } Hand 2: 39.6291 % 38.85% 00.78% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ } --- --- 2,816 games 0.005 secs 563,200 games/sec Board: Kc 3h 4d 7d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 63.5653 % 62.78% 00.78% { QdQs } Hand 2: 36.4347 % 35.65% 00.78% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ } ---

But it's not so inconsistent with my results. JJ is pretty much a coinflip. But you probably just lose too much on the raise...

 

Korn:

 

Looks great

So our summary: calldown is better in both cases!

The main reason: There are too few better hands that would fold to our raise.

Which factors could improve a turn raise?
- The opponent is so l oose that we can raise the turn and still bet value on the river (that is, we have an equity edge)

Next article: Food for Thought: The Delay Theory