Introduction

• The Predominance of short-term luck
  
• How to act on an upswing
  
• How to act on a downswing
  

You might play any arbitrary hand entirely correctly and still lose. This is not rare, indeed it happens very frequently, and can go on for long periods of time. On the other hand, you can play a hand all wrong and win a lot of money. Short term results depend not only on your playing style but also on luck.

Nevertheless, it pays to play better than your opponent. In the long term, only skill matters, so you will win if you play well. Occasionally, you will play hundreds or thousands of hands and lose (a downswing), and sometimes you will win much more than on average (an upswing). When these extreme events happen, you must take care to act right.