Calldown
by Alexander Wugalter
 previous page
|
1 2 3 |
next page 
|
Notes:
· In this article, the term „made hand“ will refer to a hand with showdown value and just a few outs.
· Working with probabilities and expected values in poker often requires making good estimates about what has already been observed as well as a good understanding of people. For this reason, some values in this article are given as speculative values derived from experience or are simply assumptions made for argument's sake. Since these calculations are concerned with the order of the values and not the exact numbers, this speculation is justified.
A good player stands out because he is a TAG. That is, he has a moderate WentToSD value and a high aggression factor (Though these numbers on their own do not make a winning player. On the other hand, if they deviate too far from the optimum it is usually found that the player can only beat very weak opponents in the long run). A high aggression factor means that most actions are either folds (checks) or bets (raises). Calls should usually be avoided. From the beginner's section, it should be known that calls only make sense for a drawing hand when you have the necessary odds. Furthermore, since poker is a game of incomplete information situations can arise where one should call with a made hand, usually until the showdown, which is notable because it is there that the switch to complete information is made. It is these situations that we will examine more closely in this article. We will start with post-flop situations where the hero can (or must) choose between calling, raising, or folding.
The basic principle of poker is to make the moves with the highest expected value. The expected values are calculated by considering the information available to each and every player. Since the EV of folding seems to be 0, it is always good to check whether calling or raising (as long as you aren't capped) has a positive EV. If you are probably leading with your made hand, raising is clearly (almost) automatically +EV. Depending on the situation and the folding tendencies of your opponents it is probably even worth it to raise with slightly worse showdown chances. With particularly good hands, the possibility of the slow play should be kept in mind. All of these cases are explicitly excluded from this discussion. Instead, we will examine the frequently made choice between calling or folding.
In the context of a made hand, the EV of a call depends on the probability (calculated from all available information) that one's own hand will be in the lead at the showdown, the cost of getting to the showdown, and the size of the pot at the showdown. Since we assume a made hand with showdown value, it's usually correct to call in later streets too after the first call is made since the cost to see the showdown falls while the size of the pot increases. A fold, then, is unthinkable unless a particularly bad card turns up that drastically reduces the value of your own hand or makes the betting action something special. Alternatively, a made hand could be improved by one of it's few outs, so that you would rather bet and raise in the later streets. Both cases are exceptions. For this reason, one will call or take a free card on the later streets in 80% of cases where one has already called once with a made hand. There is also the calldown. If the EV of a call with made hand is nearly the same as the EV of a calldown (the EV of a call is at least as high as a calldown, since with a calldown there is a small, but finite, probability of making a less than optimum call somewhere in the later streets). The following formula is valid for the EV of a calldown:
EV(calldown)= -EV(cost of showdown)+ EV(pot at showdown)*EV(share of pot at showdown)
where EV(cost of showdown) refers to the big bets we'll have to pay to see the showdown,
EV(pot at showdown) is the EV of the number of big bets in the bot at showdown and EV(share of pot at showdown), also called equity, is the probability that we will win moderated by the possibility of having to share the pot.
Now if
EV(share of pot at showdown) > EV(cost of showdown)/EV(Pot at Showdown)
and a raise is not reasonable, one should call the hand.
· In this article, the term „made hand“ will refer to a hand with showdown value and just a few outs.
· Working with probabilities and expected values in poker often requires making good estimates about what has already been observed as well as a good understanding of people. For this reason, some values in this article are given as speculative values derived from experience or are simply assumptions made for argument's sake. Since these calculations are concerned with the order of the values and not the exact numbers, this speculation is justified.
A good player stands out because he is a TAG. That is, he has a moderate WentToSD value and a high aggression factor (Though these numbers on their own do not make a winning player. On the other hand, if they deviate too far from the optimum it is usually found that the player can only beat very weak opponents in the long run). A high aggression factor means that most actions are either folds (checks) or bets (raises). Calls should usually be avoided. From the beginner's section, it should be known that calls only make sense for a drawing hand when you have the necessary odds. Furthermore, since poker is a game of incomplete information situations can arise where one should call with a made hand, usually until the showdown, which is notable because it is there that the switch to complete information is made. It is these situations that we will examine more closely in this article. We will start with post-flop situations where the hero can (or must) choose between calling, raising, or folding.
Basic requirements for calling with a made hand
The basic principle of poker is to make the moves with the highest expected value. The expected values are calculated by considering the information available to each and every player. Since the EV of folding seems to be 0, it is always good to check whether calling or raising (as long as you aren't capped) has a positive EV. If you are probably leading with your made hand, raising is clearly (almost) automatically +EV. Depending on the situation and the folding tendencies of your opponents it is probably even worth it to raise with slightly worse showdown chances. With particularly good hands, the possibility of the slow play should be kept in mind. All of these cases are explicitly excluded from this discussion. Instead, we will examine the frequently made choice between calling or folding.
In the context of a made hand, the EV of a call depends on the probability (calculated from all available information) that one's own hand will be in the lead at the showdown, the cost of getting to the showdown, and the size of the pot at the showdown. Since we assume a made hand with showdown value, it's usually correct to call in later streets too after the first call is made since the cost to see the showdown falls while the size of the pot increases. A fold, then, is unthinkable unless a particularly bad card turns up that drastically reduces the value of your own hand or makes the betting action something special. Alternatively, a made hand could be improved by one of it's few outs, so that you would rather bet and raise in the later streets. Both cases are exceptions. For this reason, one will call or take a free card on the later streets in 80% of cases where one has already called once with a made hand. There is also the calldown. If the EV of a call with made hand is nearly the same as the EV of a calldown (the EV of a call is at least as high as a calldown, since with a calldown there is a small, but finite, probability of making a less than optimum call somewhere in the later streets). The following formula is valid for the EV of a calldown:
EV(calldown)= -EV(cost of showdown)+ EV(pot at showdown)*EV(share of pot at showdown)
where EV(cost of showdown) refers to the big bets we'll have to pay to see the showdown,
EV(pot at showdown) is the EV of the number of big bets in the bot at showdown and EV(share of pot at showdown), also called equity, is the probability that we will win moderated by the possibility of having to share the pot.
Now if
EV(share of pot at showdown) > EV(cost of showdown)/EV(Pot at Showdown)
and a raise is not reasonable, one should call the hand.
 |
Register now and enjoy all advantages of PokerStrategy! |
|
previous page
|
1 2 3 |
next page
|