previous page

1 2 3

next page

Introduction

In this article

• The mathematical background of semi-bluffs
• The practice application of semi-bluffs
• When they are worthwhile, even on the river

A semi-bluff, just like its pure bluff counterpart, has the aim of getting the opponent to fold better hands. In contrast to the pure bluff however, you have a hand with moderate to good chance that it is still the best, or may become the best.

With a semi-bluff, we are trying to maximise our expected profit by combining fold equity and hand strength.

In this article we will discuss the mathematical foundations of semi-bluffs using examples, and explain the conditions where they are suitable at a poker table.

Example:

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A , Q
4 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls

Flop: (4,5 SB) T , 7 , 2 (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls

Turn: (3,25 BB) J (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises …

You have a monster draw: 9 outs to the flush, 3 more for the kings (we exclude the king of spades) plus two overcards, which can count as another ~3 outs - makes a total of 15 outs. You have a good chance of having the best hand by the river, but are unlikely to have the best hand on the turn.

You decide to raise here on the turn because you know that there are better hands that the opponent can fold here. How often must they fold a stronger hand here in order to make our semi-bluff profitable? How do we know whether a raise is better than a call? How do we assess whether the opponent folds better hands sufficiently often? These and many other questions concerning semi-bluffs will be discussed in the next section.