Concepts: Semi-Bluffs - Theory & Practice
by OnkelHotte & Hazz
| 1 |
Video: Click here
Introduction
In this article- The mathematical background of semi-bluffs
- The practice application of semi-bluffs
- When they are worthwhile, even on the river
A semi-bluff, just like its pure bluff counterpart, has the aim of getting the opponent to fold better hands. In contrast to the pure bluff however, you have a hand with moderate to good chance that it is still the best, or may become the best. With a semi-bluff, we are trying to maximise our expected profit by combining fold equity and hand strength.
In this article we will discuss the mathematical foundations of semi-bluffs using examples, and explain the conditions where they are suitable at a poker table.
Example:
Pre-flop: Hero is MP2 with A
, Q
4 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls
Flop: (4,5 SB) T , 7
, 2 (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls
Turn: (3,25 BB) J
(2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises …
You decide to raise here on the turn because you know that there are better hands that the opponent can fold here. How often must they fold a stronger hand here in order to make our semi-bluff profitable? How do we know whether a raise is better than a call? How do we assess whether the opponent folds better hands sufficiently often? These and many other questions concerning semi-bluffs will be discussed in the next section.
| 1 |
Next article:
#1
DaveX77, 06 Mar 09 15:47
Very nice article, thank you.#2
pumacy, 03 May 10 03:01
very informative, thank you.#3
datsmahname, 20 Jun 11 06:26
Maybe it was mentioned in the article, but I missed it so maybe it wasn't explicit enough.Given our semi-bluff formula:
P(F) > (1–2*EQ)/(P+3–EQ*(P+4))
When EQ=0 and P=1,
P(F) > (1–2*0)/(P+3–0*(P+4))
P(F) > (1–0)/(P+3–0)
P(F) > 1/1+3
P(F) > 1/4 = .25
Which suggests that in a 1 bet pot we can bluff/raise drawing dead as long as he folds >25%... which is wrong.
He would have to fold >50% of the time because we're obviously getting even money, 2:2 odds on our bluff.
The formula only works when EV(call)>EV(fold), or when EV(call)>0.
#4
sigauli, 09 Jul 11 12:17
But when we have 0 EQ this means we are going to make a pure bluff. And you never have a 1 SB pot in FL. Minimum is 2.5 SB HU on the flop in 1/2 SB structure. This means to attack such a board you need.P(fold) > Bets/Pot
P(fold) > 1/2.5
P(fold) > 40%