Turn Bet vs Value Check Behind 1.0

The question is now whether you bet or play check behind turn, call river. This question is complex. 


Reasons for the check-behind

1. You avoid a tough check-raise. A check-raise if tough if you can't really say whether a calldown or fold is correct. Tough check-raises usually come from aggressive-tricky players. Logically, a check-raise can only be tough if your hand is neither very strong (easy call) or very weak (easy fold). Mathematically, a tough check-raise reduces your EV to nearly 0!

2. You'll induce a bluff on the river from a bad hand that would fold against a turn bet.

3. You induce a weak river call from a hand that would have folded to a turn bet.


Reasons for a bet

1. A better hand might fold.

2. A worse hand could call, either on the turn or river. This is interesting with hands that are strong enough for a river bet.

3. You don't give a freecard to weak hands that would fold to a turn bet. Important: the larger the pot, the more dangerous it is to allow a freecard.

4. You'll bring some hands to a fold that would have had the outs for a call. This is often the case when the board shows 3 cards of the same suit on the turn. The opposition will often fold small cards of this suit.


Rules of thumb

We can derive a few rules of thumb from the factors listed above.

Rule 1: A turn check behind should only be considered when the chance that you are behind is relatively large but you could still call a river bet unimproved with a clear conscience.

Rule 2: A turn check behind is out of the question if there is the chance that your opponent will fold a better hand.

Rule 3: A turn check behind is usually out of the question if you could bet on the river for value should your opponent call the turn. This means that you should not consider a turn check behind if you believe that your opponent will call down with a bad made hand.

Rule 4: The larger the pot, the less you should consider a turn check behind. This is because the larger the pot, the higher the cost of giving a freecard to an opponent who would otherwise have folded. 

Rule 5: The great advantage of a turn check behind is avoiding a tough check-raise. If the chance of your opponent check-raising is large and such a move would put you to a difficult decision, then consider seriously a check behind. 


Opponent types

From the rules above, we can derive the following:

You should play check behind more often against tricky, aggressive opponents. You should almost never play it against loose, passive opponents.

Check-behind yes or no – a test

Note: The points given here are just estimates, meaning that you should adjust their values depending on the situation and opponent.

1) Is there a chance that the opponent would fold a better hand on the turn? +3 points

2) If your opponent check-raises the turn or donkbets the river would you have an easy calldown or fold? +2 points

3) If your opponent calls your turn bet and checks the river, could you bet for value? +2 points

4) Does your opponent check-raise often? If yes, then would a check-raise from him on the turn or a donkbet on the river put you to a tough decision since he also likes to bluff? -2 points

5) If you play check behind on the turn, is there a large chance that your opponent will bluff into you with a poor, unimproved hand?-1 Punkt

Results: If you have 0 or more points, then bet. If you have a negative number of points, then play check-behind.

Examples

1. The classic
Your opponent is tricky-tight-aggressive. You have KQo. You raise first-in from MP2. Your opponent in the BB calls.

Flop: K 7 2 rainbow.
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: A
BB checks, Hero ???

Let's use our test:
1) no: 0 points
2) no: 0 points
3) no: 0 points
4) yes: - 2 points
5) yes: - 1 point

Gesamt: - 3 points, so check behind


Further info:
1. 2+2 Article by stoxtrader
2. HPFAP, 87ff
3. WTO, 127ff