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Strategy: SNG: Sit and Go Tournaments

Odds and Outs - How Should You Play Draws?

by shakin65 & Michael

Video: Click here

Introduction

In this article

Which cards can help you (outs)?
Risk-benefit analysis
Why not every out is actually helpful

When we talk about draws or drawing hands, we are talking about incomplete hands that need help from the coming community card(s) in order to turn into a made hand.

The strength of a draw depends on the number of cards that can help. These cards are referred to as outs. Another factor that determines the strength of a draw is the so-called 'fold equity.'

Fold equity is your probability of winning the hand by making everyone else fold. Your fold equity is generally higher when you are facing fewer and more cautious opponents, simply because they are much more likely to fold if you bet or raise.

You have to understand the mathematics of poker in order to play a draw correctly. This is how you determine how likely you are to complete your draw and whether or not it will be profitable to stay in the hand. This article will introduce you to the mathematics of poker and teach you ...

... how to calculate your probability of completing a draw.
... a strategy for playing drawing hands in the early, middle and late phases of a tournament.

Next article: Advanced strategies for postflop play

That's not the entire article...

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Comments (29)

#1 styc0, 15 Apr 08 18:37

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#2 nVIDIA69, 31 May 08 16:41

()

#3 paddygo, 02 Sep 08 21:00

nice article

#4 mouse89, 06 Oct 08 14:24

#5 pokerst4r, 19 Oct 08 13:01

many thanks

#6 greerepesc, 05 Jan 09 08:01

what if hero gets eaten by a dragon ?

thanks for the tips ;)

#7 Vargan, 05 Feb 09 18:36

<",><| - a fish was here recently.

#8 moscow1818, 18 Feb 09 17:21

8.2 Hand 2 - Would noone go ALL-IN and hope to catch the Ace high flush?

#9 moscow1818, 18 Feb 09 17:30

8.3 Hand 3 - Why does it matter if Hero checks/re-raises ALL-IN, or bets 200 then re-raises ALL-IN? Either way he's going ALL-IN? Can anyone explain further?

#10 mChavez, 25 Feb 09 22:25

#11 mChavez, 26 Feb 09 00:05

RE9:
"Hero's bet of 200 chips in this hand is not appropriate"

#12 DaveX77, 09 Apr 09 12:16

RE9:
When you go all-in first (check/raise all-in here), then your opponent can fold his hand. You need to have some fold equity to go all-in with draws profitably. If you call an all-in with draw, then your only chance to win the hand is to hit one of your outs to win.

#13 Mpincham, 18 Apr 09 22:10

brilliant article... the more i read of these the more i realise that i previously didnt know how to play poker

#14 Vasco911, 14 Jun 09 07:16

LOL Mpincham I agree with you 100% because thats how I feel as well.

I've been playing for 5 years and just today learned what the odds are of hitting a OESD on the turn.

Great website.

Many thanks!

#15 theboydave, 24 Jul 09 00:05

although a lot to take in even having a rough idea of odds and outs should improve my decision making.good article as always

#16 hahahihi, 06 Aug 09 18:10

nice thing... may prove useful in my poker career :D

#17 madis252, 25 Aug 09 13:49

Example 1, why hero doesn't raise with QKs in late phase, doesn't that reduce odds to win the pot?

#18 Sinnology, 25 Sep 09 17:49

Hi!Just read this for second time and I am still bit confused.

If we calculate odds by formulas below:

Non-outs = # of unknown remaining cards - # of outs
Odds = non-outs : outs

And if there is 9 players are the table, 7 of them folded, and you have lets say 8 outs and OESD.
Should we count cards from all other players that folded as well when calculating UKNOWN REMAINING CARDS???
In examples above the author didint include folded cards when calculating odds???

#19 mrshikasta, 03 Oct 09 00:47

folded cards and burn cards are still unknown so does not change possible cards out there unless for some reason any of these dead cards have been revealed to you [eg were turned over while going into the muck - obviously not a problem on the internet]
hope that helps

#20 Hahaownedlolz, 02 Jan 10 02:37

hmm im not sure about this. so it basicaly is never profitable to call with an OESD or flush draw on the flop?

since the odds you hit them on the turn are ~20% and a bet of $2 in a $10 pot is simply rediculous and i don't think i've ever seen that before.

more realistically someone will bet $5 giving you the wrong odds.. Will definetly have to play draws less agressively then.. or atleast try to bluff with them and not call bets with them...

#21 GruenerT, 22 Jan 10 20:10

if you play against one opponent, you will rarely have situations, where people will bid low enough, but imagine 5 people postflop.
10$+5*4$ in the pot with 5$ for you to call and suddenly it doesnt look so bad.

#22 Koshburger, 10 Feb 10 01:57

#23 travator, 16 Feb 10 14:03

very nice articals here.

#24 vega0823, 03 May 10 01:08

thanks.. very important article..

#25 Arthibald1, 03 May 10 22:44

@17

It's actually the early phase.

I don't like raising KQs here, you have little to no fold equity and its quite a drawy hand. Seeing cards for as cheap as possible isnt bad. KQ isn't that great a hand anyway, I'm pretty sure all the Ax hands are ahead.

It's also quite hard to play out of position on the flop if you hit top pair bet and get raised or hit a pair with an Ace on the board, there's a fair chance someone limp calling pre will have a middle ace.

Better to keep the pot small to allow you to draw at flushes and straights with greater implied odds if you hit.

I'd recommend raising only JJ+/AK here, maybe TT or AQs. The small blind is a really bad position early phase with many deep stacked noobs.

Thoughts??

#26 Alexana13, 15 Jun 10 14:40

good article.:D

#27 tlng925, 29 Sep 10 03:51

time is too short to count pot odd for online game

#28 kastad, 22 Nov 10 18:38

Hi Guys ,i think that the article says : Dont call OESD or flush draws in tournaments. Right?

#29 Maloco87, 13 Feb 11 20:57

In example 2 I would find it very hard to fold the nut flush draw with two cards to come

but I do know there are time when you dont head your out and you lose a big pot,

I also dont think you would see too many top pros folding it either

I do like the article though as I already knew about outs and proability etc but still find it hard at times to work out the odds

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Strategy Sections

Article Contents

Introduction
Outs - Which cards are helpful?
Odds - What is the probability of completing your draw?
Pot odds - Can I play my hand profitably?
The early phase
The middle phase
The late phase
Examples
Conclusion

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