Short Stack Strategy: Implied Pot Odds
by Michael
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Introduction
In this article- Implied odds are improved pot odds
- Everything is dependent on how much your opponent is prepared to pay
In the previous article about outs, odds and pot odds, you learned the fundamental mathematical method of determining whether you can play your draws profitably or not. You count the cards which improve your hand (the outs), determine the probability of one of those cards being dealt (the odds), and finally compare them with the pot odds (the relationship between the possible profit and the bet which has to be called).
But there is still more. Pot odds only take the current pot into account, even though other opponents will frequently invest more money in the pot if you complete your draw. The calculation of the pot odds doesn't include this additional profit.
The implied odds come into play here. Implied odds are a variation of the pot odds. They not only take the current pot into account, but also the potential money that any of your opponents might invest in the hand on the following streets. However, implied odds aren't simply about mathematics; they involve some speculation as well. You have to make an assumption about how much more your opponent is willing to pay if you do complete your draw.
You'll learn what you have to look out for when estimating their willingness to pay.
 Video: Implied Pot Odds |
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You can also watch the content of this article in video format. Simply click the picture to open the video. You should still read the article to ensure that you have completely understood the strategy. Your bankroll will be grateful. |
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#1
Rven, 17 Jul 08 10:46
Implied odds assume you are going to hit your draw.But what if you don't hit it?
Then you actually made a bad call on the flop, since you were betting against your normal (pot)odds. Or am I missing something here?
#2
lyly13, 29 Jul 08 12:04
yep u are missing something, pot ods refer to the amount of chips allready on play on the flop, in the long run u will lose if u call a bet of 4$ on a 10$ flop if u have a flush draw...ull lose 6$ overall .... but when implied ods come into play u'll have to take account that u can get more than 6$ after the turn card comes and u get ure flush draw... reflect on this :)
#3
mouse89, 05 Oct 08 15:01
ok#4
Smileyphil, 30 Oct 08 12:12
The sss suggests getting most of the money in preflop or on the flop. How do implied odds work in this situation?#5
yzystyle, 29 Nov 08 00:05
i think rven made a good point, can somebody comment on that? i also have a question... where can i find the new starting hands chart for the sss strategy? i heard about it in a video by hasenbraten...#6
Devolucian, 15 Dec 08 13:33
I think you are missing a point with the term that implied odds aren't just mathematical...Implied odds can't be looked the same way as normal pot odds, you must know when it's good time to use them, there is no simple rule here and in my opinion better use implied odds only in rare cases when you really have a good feeling about it, not just every hand, or all over, implied odds are here for improving your winnings now and then, not a fact on which you should base your play...
#7
SadisticNature, 02 Jan 09 19:11
For flop considerations you should also consider negative implied odds, sometimes by calling hoping to hit you make the pot large enough to force you to call again on the turn and when the situation is considered as a whole you are making a net -ve play. But I guess this might be too complicated for this level of article.#8
janissilapriede, 06 Jan 09 21:58
I'm reading this article forth time in two days, but I still can't whirl my brain around that "implied odds" thing..It seems too speculative for me, and I don't see longterm gain from risking money where I can just fold.Can someone explain this article a bit more understandably?
#9
Shadow01011979, 05 Feb 09 09:42
On the long run for a beginner is not very worthwhile....And besides that when playing with fish that with J10o allready go All in it's more than risky.
This situation only applies for sitting in the BB and having a freeplay....(According to SSS!)
And I prefer not to risk my money in an extrem situation. I agree that it can be a very profitable situation sometimes, but in the stage I am (very beginner) this will only take to long terms loses....
I'll try to study and understand this part o poker too......
#10
STR82ACE, 21 Feb 09 15:13
Implied odds are less about 'math' than they are about reads and gut feels. You have to have a decent read on your opponent(s) and the pot has to be a certain amount for you to continue with your hand. If you have outs to the nuts, and your read on your opponent is loose aggressive, it can be very profitable to chase. However, it is not something you should do all the time, only sparingly, and try not to get into multiway pots just yet with it (although thats when implied odds REALLY pay off).#11
darrhhh, 18 Mar 09 11:06
implied odds can only work if you play normal or deep stack, there is no profit in playing these in short stack scenario we start at in bronze level. WITH NO MORE MONEY TO COME DO NOT EVEN BOTHER WITH THIS PLAY LOL. implied odds can only work if you can bet more money after you have called on a draw which did not offer you sufficent odds to call. u only do this if you A.) have more money to bet and B.) think that your opponent will call extra bets when you make your draw. For example if I call a pot size bet on the flop to my inside straight i have insufficient odds to call, but provided i know the opponent will slow down (let me see the river cheaply) and call my extra large bet on the river when I do make my draw, it is reason enough to call. Opponent and hand reading has everything to do with this PLAY since certain hands/opponents will not pay you off as their hands are too weak or they are too conservative on the river, but very aggressive on the turn. BE CAREFUL SOME DRAWS ARE OBVIOUS AND WONT PAY YOU OFF SUFFICENTLY TO PLAY (FLUSH DRAW). hope this explanation helps, feel free to add and ask, critique...#12
darrhhh, 18 Mar 09 11:09
as all things, poker is a game of situation. I was in an extremely loose live game the other week where any flush draw was paid of royaly, so exceptions do exist but are not very common ;)#13
DevilChess, 12 May 09 16:05
Implied pot odds: Its the money you can get your opponent to call from you, AFTER you've hit your draw.Playing only the current pot odds (the pot at the time you make the decision to call, bet or fold) is, as a matter of fact, a MISTAKE, a MISCALCULATION, in other words you LOSE money if you only consider the pot at the time of your decision.
Why? Because its a FACT you can get more money from your opponent after you've hit your hand, and NOT considering this amount of money equates into LOSING money.
RULE OF THUMB:
Always consider that if you hit your draw, you can get your opponent to call at LEAST as much as he bet in the current round of betting.
Example:
There is $0.25 cents in the pot and you have: KsQs
The board is: As 2s 6c 9d
Your opponent bets $0.10
Giving you 1 to 3.5
Your flush has 20% chance of hitting, meaning you NEED 1 to 4 pot odds to call. Should you fold? No. Why? Because if you do hit your flush, you CAN ASSUME your opponent would call $0.10 on the river (Since the pot would then be $0.35 + $0.10 = $0.45 - he would get 1 to 4.5 pot odds for his hand, even mid-pair is worth calling 1 to 4.5 pot odds on the river)
So in reality, you are playing for a $0.45 pot ($0.35 [current pot] + [$0.10 implied pot]), which gives you 1 to 4.5 pot odds, which would be worth a call given you need 1 to 4 pot odds for your flush draw.
So, as you can see, if you had folded you'd be LOSING money, to be exact, you would be losing AT LEAST that extra 0.5 pot odds. I say AT LEAST, because you may be able to get MORE money from your opponent: for example if you are last to act, your opponent could make a $0.10 bet himself on the RIVER, and you could raise him to $0.20 and get a call, meaning you would get 1 to 5.5 pot odds on the turn.
#14
danmarcus111, 02 Jun 09 16:32
In response to darrhhh: it's true that the majority of times that you move into a pot voluntarily in SSS there will be very little left to bet, but there are still situations where it may be useful to think in this way (think about free flop from big blind, you check, opponent 1 bets...). On top of this, this site is about teaching you skills that you can use to improve your poker game generally, not just SSS - and this is pretty essential!#15
Ratinha, 03 Jun 09 03:27
Let's see if I got something right as a beginner: In the SSS if you face a bet or raise with an OESD or flush draw and you raised preflop you go directly all-in. So you are raising or reraising, not calling. The implied odds theory is about calling. In the SSS strategy you are raising all-in not because of pot odds, implied or not, but on the statistical likeliness that either a) your opponent(s) also have draws, since it's very low stakes or b) they fold to your aggression.I´ve played a number of by-the-rule SSS tables and made a profit, except in some of the deviations I tried. Much of the profit was not from winning all in showdowns but from they folding to my aggrression - provided you leave the table with a 25% profit, which taks discipline. That's why raising is good, irrespective of draw pot odds, provided you raised preflop.
By the way, one deviation that has worked was to include some mid connectors, especially 9Ts and TJs in mid-position, after I folded a lot of hands (but not at the start) and got a tight image. I got a lot of respect even with limpers before me folding to a raise, and a decent chance if called.
#16
MrGoodHurt, 24 Aug 09 06:24
ok read it give me a check#17
bachbach, 25 Sep 09 07:19
Nice!#18
THeGaME23, 15 Oct 09 13:40
I see a lot of people are having trouble understanding. Implied pot odds factor not only what is in the pot but what you could win if you make your hand on the turn or the river. This is influenced by all the things above like how obvious your hand will be. If you have a good deceptive hand like 24o onto a board of 3 5 K, your opponent won't put you on 24o and therefore your implied odds are bigger because you will make more money if you hit your straight with an ace for ex.#19
nategleb, 10 Dec 09 16:47
Ratinha, playing SSS you must should take into consideration the "on the river" odds which are 2:1 for OESD and flushdraws + you have the agressivness on your side (opponent might fold).#20
CreamyGoodness, 31 Jan 11 01:37
I dont think implied odds play much of a role in SSS.On the subject of obvious draws: You have better implied odds when drawing to a straight than a flush: A third flush card is very obvious and may not get paid off, whereas a random card comnpleting your straight is much more concealed.