	{"id":5599,"date":"2012-12-01T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-12-01T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/cs\/5-nejhorsich-trendu-v-pokeru\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T11:30:22","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T11:30:22","slug":"5-nejhorsich-trendu-v-pokeru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/cs\/5-nejhorsich-trendu-v-pokeru\/","title":{"rendered":"5 nejhor\u0161\u00edch trend\u016f v pokeru"},"content":{"rendered":"<?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><p>S trendy se setk&aacute;v&aacute;me na ka&#382;d&eacute;m kroku a poker je dle m&#283; jedna z oblast&iacute;, kter&aacute; je k psychologick&yacute;m a statistick&yacute;m trend&#367;m nejv&iacute;ce n&aacute;chyln&aacute;. <\/p><p>To z d&#367;vodu, &#382;e poker zahrnuje p&#345;&iacute;li&scaron; mnoho nejistot. Nev&iacute;me, co hr&aacute;&#269;i u stolu dr&#382;&iacute;, jak&eacute; karty p&#345;ijdou nebo zdali jsou n&#283;&#269;&iacute; v&yacute;sledky spolehliv&yacute;m ukazatelem jeho schopnost&iacute;. Nev&iacute;me ani, jak bude vypadat budoucnost pokeru, jeliko&#382; je tato modern&iacute; hra st&aacute;le p&#345;&iacute;li&scaron; mlad&aacute; na to, aby m&#283;la n&#283;jak&eacute; zajet&eacute; koleje, jako existuj&iacute;c&iacute; zajet&aacute; odv&#283;tv&iacute;. <\/p><p>S tolika nejistotami a nekompletn&iacute;mi informacemi se p&#345;irozen&#283; sna&#382;&iacute;me tyto mezery zaplnit sami a s vysokou pravd&#283;podobnost&iacute; je zapln&iacute;me trendy. <\/p><p>Jsou zdokumentov&aacute;ny doslova stovky r&#367;zn&yacute;ch statistick&yacute;ch a psychologick&yacute;ch trend&#367;. J&aacute; vybral p&#283;t z nich, kter&eacute; se dle m&#283; nejv&iacute;ce t&yacute;kaj&iacute; pokeru:<\/p><h2>Gamblerova myln&aacute; p&#345;edstava<\/h2><table border=\"0\" align=\"right\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/doyle-brunson-949.jpg\" alt=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/doyle-brunson-949.jpg\" width=\"230\" height=\"288\" align=\"right\" style=\"margin-left: 12px;margin-bottom: 6px\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><em><span style=\"color: #888888\">Doyle zbo&#382;&#328;uje 10-2<br><\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><p>Gamblerova myln&aacute; p&#345;edstava se t&yacute;k&aacute; myln&#283; p&#345;edur&#269;en&eacute;ho z&aacute;v&#283;ru akce &#269;ist&#283; z&aacute;visl&eacute; na n&aacute;hod&#283;, na z&aacute;klad&#283; p&#345;edchoz&iacute;ch pokus&#367;. <\/p><p>Pokud tedy na flop p&#345;i&scaron;lo v p&#345;edchoz&iacute;ch t&#345;ech hr&aacute;ch eso, budete p&#345;edpokl&aacute;dat bu&#271;, &#382;e je <em>pravd&#283;podobn&#283;j&scaron;&iacute;<\/em>, &#382;e na dal&scaron;&iacute; flop p&#345;ijde tak&eacute; eso, jeliko&#382; dnes esa chod&iacute;, nebo <em>m&eacute;n&#283;<\/em> pravd&#283;podobn&eacute;, jeliko&#382; esa p&#345;i&scaron;la t&#345;ikr&aacute;t po sob&#283;. <\/p><p>Pravdou je, &#382;e nez&aacute;le&#382;&iacute; na tom, jak&eacute; karty se objevily v minulosti, na budouc&iacute; ud&aacute;losti to nem&aacute; &#382;&aacute;dn&yacute; vliv.<\/p><p>Dal&scaron;&iacute;m p&#345;&iacute;klad v pokeru je vlastn&iacute; &scaron;&#357;astn&aacute; &#269;i obl&iacute;ben&aacute; handa. P&#345;&iacute;kladem budi&#382; Doyle Brunson a jeho deset-dva offsuit, se kterou vyhr&aacute;l oba sv&eacute; Main Event &scaron;ampion&aacute;ty. <\/p><h2>Dunning\/Krueger efekt<\/h2><table border=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/dunning_kruger.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/dunning_kruger.jpg\" alt=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/dunning_kruger.jpg\" width=\"230\" height=\"209\" align=\"right\" style=\"margin-right: 12px;margin-bottom: 6px\"><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><em><span style=\"color: #888888\">Dunning Krueger efekt<br><\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><p>Dal&scaron;&iacute; zaj&iacute;mav&yacute; trend vztahuj&iacute;c&iacute; se na dovednosti. <\/p><p>Nezku&scaron;en&iacute; lid&eacute; mohou trp&#283;t iluz&iacute; nad&#345;azenosti, jeliko&#382; nemaj&iacute; dostatek dovednost&iacute;, aby rozpoznali sv&eacute; slabosti. Naopak vysoce zku&scaron;en&iacute; lid&eacute; mohou trp&#283;t &uacute;zkost&iacute; a mal&yacute;m sebev&#283;dom&iacute;m, jeliko&#382; maj&iacute; dostatek znalost&iacute; na to, aby si byli v&#283;domi i t&#283;ch nejmen&scaron;&iacute;ch chyb. <\/p><p>Vra&#357;te se zp&#283;t do doby, kdy jste za&#269;ali poprv&eacute; hr&aacute;t. Je dost mo&#382;n&eacute;, &#382;e se v&aacute;m da&#345;ilo a rychle jste si navykli na pocit por&aacute;&#382;en&iacute; kohokoliv, kdykoliv jste si p&#345;isedli ke stolu. Za&#269;&iacute;naj&iacute;c&iacute; hr&aacute;&#269;i se &#269;asto c&iacute;t&iacute; neporaziteln&iacute;, jakmile za&#269;nou v pokeru poprv&eacute; vyhr&aacute;vat. <\/p><p>A&#382; pozd&#283;ji, kdy&#382; se za&#269;nou vyv&iacute;jet va&scaron;e dovednosti a zku&scaron;enosti, se budete moci ohl&eacute;dnout zp&#283;t a uv&#283;domit si, &#382;e jste byli s nejv&#283;t&scaron;&iacute; pravd&#283;podobnost&iacute; velice &scaron;patn&iacute;. Popravd&#283; jste byli pravd&#283;podobn&#283; mnohem v&iacute;ce sebev&#283;dom&iacute; tehdy, a&#269;koliv jste nyn&iacute; pravd&#283;podobn&#283; mnohem lep&scaron;&iacute;mi hr&aacute;&#269;i. <\/p><p>Dunning Krueger efekt &#269;in&iacute; za&#269;&iacute;naj&iacute;c&iacute; hr&aacute;&#269;e p&#345;&iacute;li&scaron; sebev&#283;dom&eacute;, kv&#367;li &#269;emu&#382; hraj&iacute; hry, kter&eacute; by hr&aacute;t nem&#283;li, a to &#269;in&iacute; z pokeru profitabiln&iacute; z&aacute;le&#382;itost.<\/p><h2>Trend selekce<\/h2><table border=\"0\" align=\"right\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/poker_e_ivey01jr_600.jpg\" alt=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/poker_e_ivey01jr_600.jpg\" width=\"230\" height=\"231\" align=\"right\" style=\"margin-left: 12px;margin-bottom: 6px\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><em><span style=\"color: #888888\">Opravdu se Iveymu na WSOP da&#345;ilo?<br><\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><p>Trend selekce je statistick&yacute; trend zp&#367;soben chybou p&#345;i v&yacute;b&#283;ru &uacute;&#269;astn&iacute;k&#367; pro v&#283;deckou studii. <\/p><p>Dobr&yacute;m p&#345;&iacute;kladem trendem selekce je all time money &#382;eb&#345;&iacute;&#269;ek. Tyto &#382;eb&#345;&iacute;&#269;ky toti&#382; zohled&#328;uj&iacute; pouze <em>vyhran&eacute; pen&iacute;ze<\/em> a nezahrnuj&iacute; informace ani turnaje, kter&yacute;ch se hr&aacute;&#269; z&uacute;&#269;astnil, ale nebral v nich &#382;&aacute;dn&eacute; pen&iacute;ze, jedn&aacute; se tedy o p&#345;&iacute;jmy a ne &#269;ist&eacute; zisky. <\/p><p>All time money &#382;eb&#345;&iacute;&#269;ek nap&#345;&iacute;klad ukazuje, &#382;e Phil Ivey vyhr&aacute;l letos na WSOP $576,052 a z&aacute;rove&#328; se um&iacute;stil 5. v &#382;eb&#345;&iacute;&#269;ku WSOP Hr&aacute;&#269; roku. To v&scaron;e se zd&aacute; b&yacute;t velmi p&#367;sobiv&eacute;. <\/p><p>Ov&scaron;em ne a&#382; tak p&#367;sobiv&#283;, kdy&#382; k tomu p&#345;ipo&#269;teme, &#382;e se Ivey z&uacute;&#269;astnil $1 milion One Drop eventu, ve kter&eacute;m na pen&iacute;ze nedos&aacute;hl. Ve skute&#269;nosti se pravd&#283;podobn&#283; letos z&uacute;&#269;astnil v&#283;t&scaron;iny n&aacute;ramkov&yacute;ch event&#367;, jejich celkov&yacute; buy-in &#269;in&iacute; p&#345;es $1.25 milionu. <\/p><p>&#381;eb&#345;&iacute;&#269;ky pen&#283;&#382; a hr&aacute;&#269;e roku nazna&#269;uj&iacute;, &#382;e bylo leto&scaron;n&iacute; WSOP pro Iveyho skv&#283;l&eacute;, re&aacute;ln&#283; je ov&scaron;em alespo&#328; p&#367;l milionu dolar&#367; v m&iacute;nusu. Dokonce m&#283;l hor&scaron;&iacute; WSOP ne&#382; nap&#345;&iacute;klad hr&aacute;&#269;, kter&yacute; hr&aacute;l pouze jeden $1,000 event a pouze min-cashoval. <\/p><h2>Trend p&#345;e&#382;it&iacute;<\/h2><table border=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/jerry_yang_2007_wsop.jpg\" alt=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/jerry_yang_2007_wsop.jpg\" width=\"230\" height=\"183\" align=\"right\" style=\"margin-right: 12px;margin-bottom: 6px\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><em><span style=\"color: #888888\">Jerry Yang pouze p&#345;e&#382;il?<br><\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><p>Trend p&#345;e&#382;it&iacute; je forma trendu selekce a je v pokeru velice d&#367;le&#382;it&yacute;. Trend p&#345;e&#382;it&iacute; znamen&aacute; koncentraci na n&#283;co, co p&#345;e&#382;ilo ur&#269;it&yacute; proces, zat&iacute;mco ignorujeme to, co dan&yacute; proces nep&#345;e&#382;ilo. <\/p><p>Nejjasn&#283;j&scaron;&iacute;m p&#345;&iacute;kladem trendu p&#345;e&#382;it&iacute; v pokeru je v&iacute;t&#283;z turnaje. Kdy&#382; n&#283;kdo vyhraje velik&yacute; event, v&#283;t&scaron;inou p&#345;edpokl&aacute;d&aacute;me, &#382;e m&aacute; talent a d&iacute;ky tomu tuto osobu oslavujeme, respektujeme jeho strategick&eacute; rady a dokonce dost&aacute;v&aacute; i sponzorsk&eacute; smlouvy.<\/p><p>Nejv&#283;t&scaron;&iacute;m p&#345;&iacute;kladem tohoto je v&iacute;t&#283;z WSOP Main Eventu, kter&yacute; bude t&eacute;m&#283;&#345; po celou dobu zaps&aacute;n do historie jako jeden z nejlep&scaron;&iacute;ch, bude zmi&#328;ov&aacute;n v all time money &#382;eb&#345;&iacute;&#269;ku a v&#283;t&scaron;inou si bude moci i vyb&iacute;rat ze sponzorsk&yacute;ch smluv.&nbsp; <\/p><p>Co ov&scaron;em m&#367;&#382;eme nebrat a&#382; tak na lehkou v&aacute;hu je fakt, &#382;e doty&#269;n&yacute; mohl m&iacute;t jen &scaron;t&#283;st&iacute;. Nehled&#283; na to, jak nepravd&#283;podobn&eacute; je, &#382;e &#269;lov&#283;k vyhraje velk&yacute; turnaj, jeden to v&#382;dy b&yacute;t mus&iacute;. <\/p><p>Jednou jsem zaslechl pracovn&iacute;ka WSOP, kter&yacute; tvrdil, &#382;e Greg Raymer vyto&#269;il za sv&yacute;m titulem Main Event 2004 &scaron;ampiona 16 coin flip&#367; v &#345;ad&#283;, co&#382; je statisticky velice nepravd&#283;podobn&eacute;, je ale t&eacute;m&#283;&#345; jist&eacute;, &#382;e v turnaji takov&eacute; velikosti se to <em>n&#283;komu <\/em>stane. <\/p><p>Netvrd&iacute;m, &#382;e v&scaron;echny turnaje se vyhr&aacute;vaj&iacute; jen d&iacute;ky &scaron;t&#283;st&iacute;, tvrd&iacute;m jen to, &#382;e &scaron;t&#283;st&iacute; tvo&#345;&iacute; mo&#382;n&aacute; mnohem v&#283;t&scaron;&iacute; roli, ne&#382; je spousta lid&iacute; ochotna p&#345;ipustit. <\/p><h2>Trend podpory<\/h2><table border=\"0\" align=\"right\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/Matusow.jpg\" alt=\"\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2012\/11\/27\/Matusow.jpg\" width=\"230\" height=\"230\" align=\"right\" style=\"margin-left: 12px;margin-bottom: 6px\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><em><span style=\"color: #888888\">Opravdu m&aacute; Mike Matusow tak<br>&scaron;patn&yacute; run, jak tvrd&iacute;?<br><\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><p>Trend podpory znamen&aacute;, &#382;e p&#345;ikl&aacute;n&iacute;te v&#283;t&scaron;&iacute; v&aacute;hu v&#283;cem, kter&eacute; podporuj&iacute; va&scaron;i teorii, a ignorujete v&#283;ci, kter&eacute; ji vyvrac&iacute;. <\/p><p>Bez pochyb je nejv&#283;t&scaron;&iacute;m pokerov&yacute;m trendem podpory hr&aacute;&#269;ovo zhodnocen&iacute; vlastn&iacute;ch dovednost&iacute;. <\/p><p>Jen m&aacute;lokdy je jist&eacute;, zda jste zahr&aacute;li handu spr&aacute;vn&#283;, &#269;i jde o v&yacute;sledek hlavn&#283; d&iacute;ky &scaron;t&#283;st&iacute;. Zeptejte se ov&scaron;em t&eacute;m&#283;&#345; ka&#382;d&eacute;ho pokerov&eacute;ho hr&aacute;&#269;e a ten v&aacute;m odpov&iacute;, &#382;e v&yacute;hry jsou d&iacute;ky dovednostem a prohry kv&#367;li sm&#367;le.<\/p><p>V&yacute;sledkem toho existuje spousta cest, jak ospravedlnit v&yacute;hern&iacute; i ztr&aacute;tov&eacute; dny. Pokud vyhrajeme, t&iacute;hneme k v&#283;cem, kter&eacute; jsme ud&#283;lali dob&#345;e a ignorujeme handu, ve kter&eacute; jsme trefili na riveru jeden ze dvou out&#367;. Pokud prohrajeme, vzpomeneme si na v&scaron;echny handy, ve kter&yacute;ch byly pora&#382;ena na&scaron;e esa a pohodln&#283; zapom&iacute;n&aacute;me handy, ve kter&yacute;ch si n&aacute;s \"povodil\" regul&aacute;r.<\/p><p>Trend podpory se velmi &scaron;patn&#283; uv&#283;domuje a n&#283;kdy je pot&#345;eba p&#345;&iacute;tel &#269;i tren&eacute;r, aby v&aacute;s obezn&aacute;mil s realitou.<\/p><p>To v&aacute;m m&#367;&#382;e takt&eacute;&#382; v&aacute;&#382;n&#283; br&aacute;nit v rozvoji jako hr&aacute;&#269;e, jeliko&#382; t&iacute;m nepracujete na sv&eacute; h&#345;e. Kdy&#382; vyhr&aacute;v&aacute;me, p&#345;edpokl&aacute;d&aacute;me, &#382;e na na&scaron;&iacute; h&#345;e nen&iacute; pot&#345;eba pracovat, a kdy&#382; prohr&aacute;v&aacute;me, od&#367;vod&#328;ujeme to stejn&#283;, jeliko&#382; <em>bychom <\/em>vyhr&aacute;li, kdyby nebylo sm&#367;ly. <\/p><p><em><span style=\"color: #888888\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/forum\/thread.php?threadid=156464\">Barry Carter<\/a><\/span><\/em> l <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/barry_carter\"><em>Barry Carter on Twitter<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Barry Carter vyb\u00edr\u00e1 p\u011bt nej\u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00edch statistick\u00fdch a psychologick\u00fdch trend\u016f ve sv\u011bt\u011b pokeru.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5600,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world-of-poker"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - 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