{"id":32572,"date":"2024-01-17T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/es\/aumentar-la-habilidad-reduce-los-downswings\/"},"modified":"2026-02-27T11:08:20","modified_gmt":"2026-02-27T11:08:20","slug":"aumentar-la-habilidad-reduce-los-downswings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/es\/news\/content\/Aumentar-la-habilidad-reduce-los-downswings_129923\/","title":{"rendered":"Aumentar la habilidad reduce los downswings"},"content":{"rendered":"<?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><p>La semana pasada Phil Galfond public&oacute; un video que puede haber sido uno de sus mejores y eso ya es bastante decir.<\/p><p>Es una inmersi&oacute;n profunda en la relaci&oacute;n entre la varianza y el winrate. Resumiendo, afirma que la mejor forma de reducir la mala suerte es mejorando en el p&oacute;ker.<\/p><div class=\"youtube\"><\/div><p>Citando a Galfond, \"la frecuencia y la magnitud de tus downswings en las mesa de p&oacute;ker est&aacute;n directamente relacionadas al tama&ntilde;o de tu 'edge'\".<\/p><p>Phil explica que <strong>los resultados del p&oacute;ker vienen determinados por dos factores: tu 'edge' y la varianza.<\/strong> Puedes reducir las oscilaciones mejorando (o jugando en partidas m&aacute;s blandas) o jugando en formatos de menor varianza.<\/p><p>Tambi&eacute;n argumenta que <strong>jugar m&aacute;s tight - menos manos, no farolear, no hacer bluff catcher - es una forma terrible de reducir los downswings<\/strong> porque reduce tu winrate. Puedo dar fe de ello. La peor racha negativa que he tenido fue hace m&aacute;s de una d&eacute;cada en mesas de cash y, en retrospectiva, dur&oacute; tanto porque corr&iacute; menos riesgos. Jugu&eacute; botes m&aacute;s peque&ntilde;os con manos grandes y reduje mi 'upside' significativamente.<\/p><p>Puedes visualizar el consejo de Phil con el siguiente experimento, <a href=\"https:\/\/forumserver.twoplustwo.com\/showpost.php?p=53260089&amp;postcount=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mediante el foro de 2+2<\/a>. Se trata de una simulaci&oacute;n de 20.000 lanzamientos de moneda, as&iacute; que no hay ninguna ventaja de habilidad:<\/p><figure class=\"modulFull\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/cdn-origin\/2024\/01\/15\/Screenshot_2024-01-15_132326.png\" alt=\"Poker\" width=\"772\" height=\"602\"><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure><p>&Eacute;sta es la misma simulaci&oacute;n pero asumiendo un 1% de 'edge', por lo que ganas un 51% de las veces:<\/p><figure class=\"modulFull\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/cdn-origin\/2024\/01\/15\/Screenshot_2024-01-15_132405.png\" alt=\"Poker\" width=\"772\" height=\"602\"><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure><p>Y este es el mismo experimento, pero con un 5% de edge:<\/p><figure class=\"modulFull\"><figcaption><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/cdn-origin\/2024\/01\/15\/Screenshot_2024-01-15_132500.png\" alt=\"Poker\" width=\"772\" height=\"602\" style=\"color: #333333;font-size: 15px\"><\/figcaption><\/figure><p>Un peque&ntilde;o aumento de 'edge' y la varianza se suaviza dr&aacute;sticamente. Una visualizaci&oacute;n perfecta del poder de mejorar, aunque sea muy peque&ntilde;a, en el p&oacute;ker a largo plazo.<\/p><p><em><font style=\"vertical-align: inherit\"><font style=\"vertical-align: inherit\">&iquest;Est&aacute;s de acuerdo con el consejo de Phil del video? <\/font><font style=\"vertical-align: inherit\">D&eacute;janoslo saber en los comentarios:<\/font><\/font><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Phil Galfond dice que la mejor forma de reducir la mala suerte es mejorar en el p\u00f3ker y tenemos algunas simulaciones que lo demuestran.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32573,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-content"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - 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