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[NL2-NL10] nl 10 sh AQs

    • noulispa
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 1,280
      BB: $3.86 (38.6 bb)
      MP: $8.08 (80.8 bb)
      CO: $48.33 (483.3 bb) stats : V : 75/P : 26/ fld to c bet 50/ hands 154
      Hero (BTN): $14.30 (143 bb)
      SB: $3.56 (35.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q:diamond: A:diamond:
      MP folds, CO raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.70, 2 folds, CO calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.55) 7:diamond: Q:club: 3:spade: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.80, Hero raises to $2.40, CO calls $1.60

      Turn: ($6.35) K:diamond: (2 players)
      CO bets $2.20, Hero calls $2.20

      River: ($10.75) K:club: (2 players)
      CO bets $5.10, Hero folds

      on the river i dont think that i beat something .. what do you think ?
  • 2 replies
    • Lasso
      Joined: 26.06.2006 Posts: 5,629
      tough hand. villain obviously is a big fish. his flop donk looks so weak so i like ur raise here. coming to the turn its on the one hand a terrible card, because besides the 7 its the only card u dont wanna see, on the other hand u got additional equity in case u has 33/77/q7. i dont see fishes donking their sets anyway, so wouldnt see many sets in his range as played. stats regarding his donk behaviour would be nice.

      call on the turn is nice anyway. on the river comes a total blank. why is it a blank? we go back to the flop. what hands are in his range that are kx? kq of course. k7? maybe, but i dont see him donking that (thats why his donkbet % is important here). i dont see him donking kq either, but kq makes more sense regarding all the streets than k7. due to the card removal effect its really unlikely for him to have kq though.

      i see him often enough having hands like mid pocket pairs that donks the flop for information. because hes a fish and the flop is so dry hes obviously not going to fold them. on the turn the same probably. he would do this with qt or qj for sure too imo, sometimes even a7. on the river it looks more like qx in his range. and besides qk u have every qx beat here. i would always call that great river. i only see u beat vs 77 and kq, and both hands i dont see often playing like that. i would be cautious if had minraised on any of the streets, because that wud probably tell u he has the nuts. like that i easily call the river and u will win most of the time imo.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello noulispa,

      After us showing so much strength by raising the flop I would actually be also scared a bit here, don't really get his line at all and why would he block-bet with Qx after we even raise. I would tend to think those guys would rather just Check/Call with it than donk like that. So might be even the case that you made a good fold on the river if he is also passive.

      But overall for the given odds I wouldn't say that you are making a huge mistake either, calling him down and taking a note shouldn't be that mistake either, there ain't like a lot of combos which have us beat.

      Best Regards.