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[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - Folding AA in 4b pot sicksick.

    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hey veriz!!

      Villain 24/17/124hands.
      6% 3bet
      1.8 AF.
      63 w$sd

      I had a discussion in the skype-studygroup about the sizing. Someone said we should 4bet larger but I disagree cause we still give very bad odds, he can't call wide.
      His range? For me: QQ,KdKh,KdKs,KdKc,JdJh,JdJs,JdJc,AKs,AhKd,AsKd,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs
      Not all KK combo's
      All QQ combo's
      Not all JJ combo's
      All AKs combo's
      Not all AKo combo's.
      This should be realistic.

      Should I give hem credit for AQs or QKs? I think he flats preflop with those hands.


      A bad flop for me. I prefer to gain some money from bluffs (AK) so I check. If I bet he folds AK and I only get value from KK... But I lose to more combo's QQ/JJ.




      That does not like AK to me... I think many players are scared with AK and hope to splitt it here, they still have a little bit of FE. KK would also just check it.

      I really hope all of this makes sense!!!!!

      Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1844025
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $25.00
      SB: $28.92
      BB: $32.34
      Hero (UTG): $25.35
      MP: $37.74
      CO: $29.57

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A :heart: A :club:
      Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, CO raises to $3.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, CO calls $3.75

      Flop: ($15.10) Q :heart: 8 :spade: J :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($15.10) Q :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

      River: ($25.10) J :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $17.57 all in, Hero folds
  • 2 replies
    • nickvdb1990
      Joined: 18.01.2010 Posts: 1,753
      You can make a great point about checking the flop since we can throw balance out the window.

      But then, according to the range you provided, the turn is a very good card. Only one QQ and three JJ are possible now, as opposed to six (or well, four) KK, and eight AK (you wrote down less but i think we should also start discarding some QQ and JJ then, which makes it even steven again).

      I'll never fold this hand, especially after that river now, his valuerange is so thin you'll need a magnifying glass to see it. And on the river he may think that you have AK, cause that's what it sure looks like to him. Or at least something else weak.

      As a general rule I'd never (maybe once a year) fold AA in 4b pots cause the SPR is ridiculously small and there's always more combos of AK than sets.

      Anyway now do we want to bet the turn, probably not.
      Bet the river hmmm, you're probably better off checking and hoping to induce a bluff

      edit: as a general rule I think you should be assigning less value to stats for which your samplesize is still too small. For example, this guy played 120 hands, which means that he saw 40 flops, which means he had less than 10 showdowns....rough approximation but you get it. 10 times that situation barely says anything about his showdown behavior.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Farmarchist,

      Yes, we should 4bet it bigger, towards 2,5x instead of such a min-raise. But otherwise not much to comment, I doubt that we are doing to face a lot of bluffs there while anything similar to like AK from his view would just Check it behind.

      With his AF/W$SD he is rarely going to bluff there as well which we have to understand.

      Best Regards.