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[NL2-NL10] utg 22, cbet on monotone board?

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $6.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 0,0, Hands: 103
      BB: $3.35 - VPIP: 39, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 2,6, WTS:31, Hands: 79
      Hero (UTG): $5.79 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2,1, Hands: 33228
      CO: $5.00 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 1,0, Hands: 59
      BTN: $5.17 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 6, AF: 0,0, Hands: 50

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with 2 :heart: 2 :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.15, 3 folds, BB calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.32) T :heart: A :heart: 9 :heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero?
      Most of the times he doesnt even have a :heart: , so Cbet and collect pot?
  • 10 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Imimba1,

      I am just curious, why do you think that he most of the time doesn't have a ? :D And what about an Ace? :)

      Best Regards.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Imimba1,

      I am just curious, why do you think that he most of the time doesn't have a ? :D And what about an Ace? :)

      Best Regards.
      It's pure math. If I get a random hand, it's 42% that I have a :heart: . But with one in my hands, and 3 on the board, it's 32%. (I'm very good at math, believe me pls :s_love: )

      Well, 68% of the times he doesnt even has one :heart: .

      I'd just bet and collect the dead money. I dont wanna see so many cards.

      What do you think?
    • generals007
      generals007
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.09.2007 Posts: 578
      He might call with a lot of hands, the wet board only makes his fold more unlikely. I'd never cbet here as I think I have no fold equity.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Imimba1,

      I am just curious, why do you think that he most of the time doesn't have a ? :D And what about an Ace? :)

      Best Regards.
      It's pure math. If I get a random hand, it's 42% that I have a :heart: . But with one in my hands, and 3 on the board, it's 32%. (I'm very good at math, believe me pls :s_love: )

      Well, 68% of the times he doesnt even has one :heart: .

      I'd just bet and collect the dead money. I dont wanna see so many cards.

      What do you think?
      Well, and what do you do with the number? :D You know the number but for what you using it? :)
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by veriz
      Well, and what do you do with the number? :D You know the number but for what you using it? :)
      68% of the times he doesnt even have a :heart: . But yeah, apat from that, the board is very connected. Possible SDs, and broadways love this board aswell.
      Would you jsut chb?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      Originally posted by veriz
      Well, and what do you do with the number? :D You know the number but for what you using it? :)
      68% of the times he doesnt even have a :heart: . But yeah, apat from that, the board is very connected. Possible SDs, and broadways love this board aswell.
      Would you jsut chb?
      Correct. ;) And what can you do with the 68%, okay you know it, so what? :D
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      .
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      68% goes out the window against a 39/5 :D .
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      I think you need to think a little further about why you want to c-bet.

      On balance, in my view its probably a decent decision (its close), but I would say for me the rationale would be different:

      1. Hands that miss the board will fold to you, and given your hand they probably have half decent equity against you (ie. at least two over-cards to your hand and potentially gut shots).

      2. The range of hands that call you are probably only around 60% odd equity against your hand, so your still not in bad shape. To clarify, the range will include:

      Open Ended Stright Draws
      Flush draws
      Combo Draws
      Pairs
      Two Pair / Sets

      The only problem is that if your opponent is aggressive they may raise you will a fair chunk of this range - Removing your equity.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      .