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[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH two pari on river A9s

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($39.03)
      BB ($20.30)
      UTG ($7.78)
      UTG+1 ($27.22)
      CO ($27.61)
      Hero ($24.98)

      Dealt to Hero 9:diamond: A:diamond:

      UTG calls $0.20, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.80, SB calls $0.70, fold, UTG calls $0.60

      FLOP ($2.60) J:diamond: T:club: 6:diamond:

      SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.90, SB calls $1.90, UTG folds

      TURN ($6.40) J:diamond: T:club: 6:diamond: A:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $3.40, SB calls $3.40

      RIVER ($13.20) J:diamond: T:club: 6:diamond: A:spade: 9:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $5.50, SB calls $5.50


      fold to cbet OOP 45 (11)

      minrasie in BTN w KJs, cbet < 1/2 KTxss vs fish, cbh 2 when flush posible, call pot bet on blank river
      cbh in 3bet pot 9xx mono w nut flush, raise donkbet blank turn 3x, check behind 9 vs fish on paired board - MISS VALUE

      On the river he might still have Jx, Ax if he called with flushdraw on flop, so I trie to get value.
  • 2 replies
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640

      About as standard as it gets. I like the isoraise size. I wouldn't make it much bigger because we will also get restealed from time to time whilst the blinds will see we isolate with a wide range on the BTN. UTG is also pretty shortstacked so perfect size. His preflop calling range (SB) will be pretty thin if I look at his stats. I'd give him mostly PP's, 55-JJ and maybe QQ looking at his low Resteal%. He'll also call some good broadway hands like QJs, KQs, KJs, AQs... Don't think he'll have much crap.

      Standard CB-spot ofcourse with our equity + position. We can make them fold better hands and make them call worse (draws). I think that we should bet $2 with our whole range 3way on such a flop allthough if you think you don't need balance I'd just bet $1.75 to give us a bit cheaper semi-bluff odds. Because you already have a great sample on SB I'm more balancing my sizes tho so your sizing our $2 looks great. Ones he calls I think he can have something like QJs, KJs, AJs, QKs (obv also some offsuit combo's but looking at how tight he is in the blinds I'd eliminate most of them).

      Vs his pretty strong range here I would check back the turn. It's possible he folds KJ or QJ and that are maybe the only hands you beat. Also QK makes broadway now. I also expect that he check/raises draws like QdTd or QdKd right on the flop. So I think a turnbet is a bit too thin.

      His W$SD is really high and his WTSD is pretty low so the guy will be really nitty OTR. We also see that from your notes on him. So what are we hoping that he calls with? KJ? TJ? I think KJ folds the turn or the river... I think TJ check/Raises flop almost always. On the other hand he is check/raising most better hands like sets our straights on the flop our turn so it's again pretty close. I just don't think it's worth a thin valuebet as played so I'd just check behind and see him having a hand he would not call a riverbet with or a hand like AJ or QK...

    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795
      Pre + Flop: Standard

      Turn: He has a really high fold to cbet. So I think AQ and AK are unlikely. We still lose to KQ, AJ, AT though. I don't think we should bet the Turn for value, but it's not that clear-cut. I think it's close, since we have nut flush draw. But getting checkraised here is just ugly.

      River: I can't think of too many AX hands in his range cos he wouldn't call Flop with AK/AQ due to his really high Fold to Flop cbet. We also have the nut flush draw.

      We are going for value against JX in this case, so a smaller sizing is more reasonable. You could go even smaller but I think your size is fine.

      In conclusion, I think you should recognize that you are going for really thin value here even though you have 2pair. I think AK and A9 are virtually the same hand here. Bet smaller cos his range shouldn't be too strong. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him play so passively with AJ and AT.