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[NL2-NL10] Folding top two pairs

    • fotakis
      Joined: 11.11.2010 Posts: 88
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($15.70)
      BB ($10.53)
      UTG ($5.15)
      UTG+1 ($6.55)
      UTG+2 ($10)
      MP1 ($7.80)
      Hero ($10)
      BTN ($10)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: K:club:

      UTG raises to $0.40, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.60

      FLOP ($2.15) K:diamond: Q:club: A:club:

      UTG checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($2.15) K:diamond: Q:club: A:club: 7:diamond:

      UTG bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80

      RIVER ($5.75) K:diamond: Q:club: A:club: 7:diamond: 4:spade:

      UTG bets $2.35 (AI), Hero folds

      UTG wins $5.49

      Villain is 17/8. I think there are not any hands that I win on the river.
  • 4 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,279
      17/8 over how many hands?
      in any case that seems more fishy than solid.

      why do you check the flop?
      as it went, what were you expecting and what do you think that he can have on turn and river?
    • fotakis
      Joined: 11.11.2010 Posts: 88
      It's over 285 hands. I check back on the flop because no worse hands will call me. I think that his range is QQ+, AK. He checks on the flop to trap me. I call his turn bet hoping to go to showdown.
    • pucilpet
      Joined: 09.03.2009 Posts: 694
      Originally posted by fotakis
      I think that his range is QQ+, AK.
      I think that his range is probably somewhat wider. Actually I think most players would reraise with QQ+ and AK and call with smaller pocket pairs and some suited connectors.

      Wouldn't you rather bet yourself on the flop than call his turn bet?

      That way you'll gain information about his hand and maybe get him to fold some hands that have OK equity against you or let him make a mistake by calling with a worse hand / drawing hand (FD for example).
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,279
      but if his range is only QQ+, AK then you are completely toast by the turn, don't you think?
      you beat literally 0 hands there and only call for a split or a miracle river (ace pls)

      so, as played, on your assumptions, you have to fold the turn since you're obviously behind and going to face a river bet.
      but then, if you think that he only continues with QQ+, AK vs your 3bet, why do you 3bet preflop?

      now, for my own thoughts...

      i think that preflop is pretty interesting.
      he's pretty tight, with a 50bb stack and makes it 4x.

      calling is doable, but against such a stack i like the small 3bet (instead of making it ~$1.20 as "standard").
      we can still easily stack off postflop and he probably will call his entire range (which includes hands like AQ, AJ, KQ, pocket pairs) and 4bet with QQ+/AK.

      so, on the flop i don't think that he has QQ+/AK very often because he'd 4bet them preflop -> most often he'll have AQ, AJ, KQ, some pocket pair type of holdings and against that we clearly are ahead.
      that means -> bet flop and shove the turn for value.

      even as played i'm never folding the river, you are getting insane pot odds. if he EVER shows up with AQ you already have a profitable call.