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[NL2-NL10] NL 10 AQo

    • 0744379
      0744379
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.06.2011 Posts: 435
      • 22.11.2012, 20:38
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by 0744379: 23.11.2012 13:41.
      Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $12.18 (121.8 bb)
      SB: $2.30 (23 bb)
      BTN: $10 (100 bb)
      MP: $16.22 (162.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q A
      2 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero raises to $1, BTN raises to $2.50, Hero folds

      Results:
      $2.05 pot
      BTN mucked and won $2.05 ($1.05 net)


      Villain was a reg. 7.5 3bet stat and 100% fold to 3bet for 121 hands.
      I had 3bet in this spot in the previous round to which the villain folded. I sensed his 4bet was a bluff.

      I had won an all in a few hands previously on another table and this came into my head that I didnt want to throw that money away on a silly move. Playing scared money?

      I guess there isn't much to review in this hand but it is an interesting spot from a dynamics point of view. I think I might have missed a +EV spot since I pick up the dead money often enough if I shove.
  • 5 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      What sample do you have for folding against 3bet? If it is for a 5+ hands then we could ask ourselves why are we 3betting.
      When he 4bets we have an easy fold here. No need to level ourselves into shoving AQo here.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • SvenBe
      SvenBe
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 19.04.2006 Posts: 13,520
      Hi 0744379,

      I am unfortunately sure that I cannot give you "the solution" here, other, more experienced judges will pop in,too.

      121 hands is no samplesize - how many times did he got 3bet in those? 10? Maximum!

      What I do is in Steal/Resteal-situations, to go down with my "go broke" requirements by 1 hand. So instead of QQ+/AK it would be JJ+/AQ+. But that is just to superficial for this hand.

      We now have the difficulty that we need to look at 2 different possibilities:

      Option 1)
      * he adjusts - he would be 4betting more against resteals, he would also on top be more 4betting vs you due to reads. Then the solution is could be a profitable shove. Either he calls too much (option 1A we would be ahead and make +EV since we crush the range) or he calls too tight (option 1B he calls not often enough and we generate EV by him folding a lot)

      Option 2)
      * he plays just his range. Maybe he plays a bit looser in BUvsBB - did your stats suggest that he plays differently in steal/resteals, other than lets say MP vs CO ? Against a pure value-4bet-range we would be crushed!

      Lets have a look at the ranges:
      1a)
      he 4bets: Ax,22-66,TT+,KQ =>we have 60%
      he calls a shove with all pairs and AT+ =>he would call 124 out of 268 hands -> no profit by shoving alone, but we have 47% vs this range - which including the deadmoney and the folds makes us +EV

      1b)same 4bet range, but he only calls allins with valuehands JJ+,AQ+
      We only have 33% against his 56 hands -> but in 80% of the hands we will win the whole pot. (Please don't let me do the exact calculation for how big the EV is :-))

      2) he plays his standard way, so 4betting and going broke with roughly the same range. There is a lot of players who do not really have a bluff4bet range and just occasionally bluff4bet. But: you do not know it.
      If this was the case: you would be up vs AQs,AK,JJ+ while maybe AJ or A2 folds. Hard to guess the correct range - but a tight 4b/broke guy will have you mega crushed.

      So what is it all about? Knowing our oponent - we could start playing the guessing game, but it would as kymupa said be to leveling. Why would we start leveling-wars on No Limit 10?
      IF you have the experience he is just 4betting super mega light vs you then 4b/broke could be a valid option - but you need more information!
    • 0744379
      0744379
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.06.2011 Posts: 435
      Very interesting about you adjusting your go broke range. I do this but didn't have an exact range. It is obviously quite situation dependent but it is good to have an exact range to go by.

      I don't think I have enough hands to form a firm view on whether he plays differently in 3bet pots in the blinds compared to MP vs CO.

      I think option 1b would be the one I was thinking when I was playing although I didnt have the figures of course. :P

      Thanks for the advice guys.
      Great analysis.
    • SvenBe
      SvenBe
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 19.04.2006 Posts: 13,520
      Yeah, that is the way to go - maybe for the next hand you post you can let us know your ranges and justifications - we'll have a look then if they are realistic enough.
      However in such situations it will be hard to be 100% correct with assumptions - with experience you'll come close!
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by 0744379
      Very interesting about you adjusting your go broke range. I do this but didn't have an exact range. It is obviously quite situation dependent but it is good to have an exact range to go by.

      I don't think I have enough hands to form a firm view on whether he plays differently in 3bet pots in the blinds compared to MP vs CO.

      I think option 1b would be the one I was thinking when I was playing although I didnt have the figures of course. :P

      Thanks for the advice guys.
      Great analysis.
      In most cases it would be 1b however some aggressive villains are very prone to tilt and over adjustments.

      So the question would come down to how profitable our shove can be because most of the money would come from him folding to our shove. When he calls we are behind a lot.

      So this results in a scenario where we play a higher variance game short term which may result in you getting tilted easier. So if you are prone to tilting (if he sucks out or shows better for example) then I would avoid these spots and simply fold to his 4-bet.