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[NL2-NL10] HU NL10, value bet on the river?

    • juve92RNMD
      Joined: 21.01.2009 Posts: 114
      vilain - hands: 139, VPIPBB:66, turn check raise:33(6hands), turn agression:15, foldto flopcbet: 61, 3bet:22

      Hello, i would like to ask if there is any room for value bet on the river, thx.

      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players -
      The Hand History Converter

      BB: $25.36
      Hero (BTN/SB): $14.64

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN/SB with K :spade: A :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.60) 9 :heart: 9 :club: 5 :spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.45, BB calls $0.45

      Turn: ($1.50) A :club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.12, BB raises to $3.64, Hero calls $2.52

      River: ($8.78) 2 :club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50

      BB shows Q :spade: 9 :spade:
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Juve,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: What range do you expect your opponent to raise here on the turn?

      I doubt he will raise many Ax hands unless you guys have some specific dynamic. The rest of his hands are 9x and possibly backdoor flushes and we can't valuebet against either.

      I doubt that he ever raises a TT or 5x hand on the turn and then call the river with it. After all even the flush got there.

      As a side note, when you leave a reply, please hit the advise judge to take another look button.
    • juve92RNMD
      Joined: 21.01.2009 Posts: 114
      I thought that he called flop with high cards and turn hit his ace so he raised me, thinking that i have nothing, becuase i would continue bluffing on turn with ace came...i put him on A..but he could easily had FD and it came on was easy check, thx for opinion
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795

      I think the River bet is a big mistake. He reps 9X on the Turn so hard that you have no value here. Would he raise AX on the Turn here? I highly doubt it.

      I would usually bet/fold here at lower stakes cos this line is usually 9X, but in a Headsup match this could be different, so that makes bet/calling Turn with AK more acceptable.

      About the flop line, I don't like betting here. A better hand is not folding (a pair), maybe you could argue that you are getting some thin value from worse Ace highs but in general you are an underdog. Would you bet Flop with the intention of calling a River bet? or would you fold to a river bet? Does villain float with some KQ KJ type of hands here as well?