This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2-NL10] CAP Weak fold river

    • Stedyeddy
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,502
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($35.75)
      BB ($18.91)
      Hero ($29.43)
      CO ($9.43)
      BTN ($10)

      Dealt to Hero 8:heart: 8:club:

      Hero raises to $1.11, CO calls $1.11, fold, SB calls $0.86, BB calls $0.61

      FLOP ($4.44) 5:club: 7:diamond: K:diamond:

      SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

      TURN ($4.44) 5:club: 7:diamond: K:diamond: 2:club:

      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2, CO folds, SB calls $2, BB folds

      RIVER ($8.44) 5:club: 7:diamond: K:diamond: 2:club: 8:diamond:

      SB bets $6.89, Hero folds

      SB wins $8.06


      IN 100 hands
      AF 4.3

      I think a lot of call or fold in river.
      I have to win 1/3 times to make a EV+ call, but what kind of range could check flop, check/c turn and donk the river?

      The pot is multi way, so the % of bluffes is less than a normal pot, and hands like K8, 57 or 85 its a small %, and im not sure if he donk AI river.
      Maby its a weak fold, but I think that most of times he have a FD or a random OESD.
  • 2 replies
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Any information about the other players? Betting the turn is close here, since someone could easily have a weak K here that isn't folding, plus most of the rivers would be bad for us.

      As played, I think folding the river is standard. I think that when he takes this line this is usually a flush here, and I doubt that he has enough K8/87 combos to justify a call here.

    • Stedyeddy
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,502

      Ty for the evaluation.