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[NL20-NL50] NL50 QQ set turn mwp

    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,644
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $50 (100 bb)
      UTG: $16.89 (33.8 bb)
      MP: $51.50 (103 bb)
      Hero (CO): $73.93 (147.9 bb)
      BTN: $54.59 (109.2 bb)
      SB: $69.30 (138.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q Q
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN calls $1.25, SB calls $1, BB calls $0.75

      Flop: ($5) 7 K T (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

      Turn: ($5) Q (4 players)
      SB bets $2, BB folds, Hero raises to $9.75, BTN raises to $29.50, SB folds,

      SB 52 hands 27/16 (he had more fishy stat at the tome of the hand)

      BU 330 hands
      Passive post flop stats (WWSF 40%, Agg freq 31/19/13)
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Hello sir,

      Although that looks very strong, I don't think you can or should ever fold here with second set. KK would still 3bet preflop so if we give him just about the worst situation for us we still have quite some equity:

      Board: 7:diamond: K:spade: T:club:  Q:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    39.84%  39.84%   0.00% { QhQc }
      MP3    60.16%  60.16%   0.00% { TT, 77, AJs, J9s, AJo }

      Given the sizing though we can't just call though imo so we have to get it in.

      If we input a slightly more favourable scenario where our opponent overplays KQ a bit and ships combos draws we have a very clear stack off.

      Board: 7:diamond: K:spade: T:club:  Q:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    47.35%  47.35%   0.00% { QhQc }
      MP3    52.65%  52.65%   0.00% { TT, 77, AJs, KQs, J9s, AsTs, 9s8s, AJo, KQo }