# Implied Odds Question

• Bronze
Joined: 27.01.2010
Let's imagine the following scenario:

My opponent bets the flop and I call with a flush draw. The odds to get a flush are 4:1. I have to call \$0.10 into \$0.23. That means I'm short \$0.17. I make the call.

So now my opponent bets on the turn after I miss my flush. He bets \$0.20 into a \$0.33 pot. Now I've made back the \$0.17 I lost right? Or have I?

If I want to continue now I have to call a \$0.20 bet into a \$0.53 pot. So if I want another try at my flush I need an \$0.80 pot, so if I call now I'll be short \$0.27.

Now my question is this: Did I make back the \$0.17 that I lost on the flop, when my opponent bet on the turn? or do I now have to make back \$0.17 + \$0.27 on the River? Or just \$0.27 on the River?

Thanks!
• 3 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 18.10.2011
I had the exact same question and I figured it all out while I was at work. Here it is!

Okay a flush draw is actually 1 in 3, I don't go by that type of ratio (4:1). I usually just say the chances of making a flush draw by the river is 2 to 1.

Anyways before your opponent bets the pot is \$0.13 correct? And after his bet it is now \$0.23 and you must call \$0.10 into a pot of \$0.23.

The chances of you hitting those 9 (clean) outs on the turn is 18%. So mathematically speaking your opponent must bet \$0.03 on the flop for it to be a breakeven call. \$0.16 *0.18 = \$0.0288

IDEAL POT:18% (1 in 5.55) = 5.55 X \$0.0288
= \$0.15984 (pot)

Since you called a \$0.10 bet instead of \$0.03, you must make up -\$0.07 (you paid \$0.07 more). Now the pot is \$0.33 and he bets \$0.20 into it.
Again if you called this bet you'd need to make up another -\$0.15 on the river.
IDEAL POT: 20% (1 in 5) = 5 x \$0.048
= \$0.24 (pot)

\$0.07 + 0.15 = \$0.22

In total you gotta squeeze another \$0.22 - \$0.23 out of your opponent for it to be breakeven overall.

What I am trying to say is this, ideally in your situation you would've wanted your opponent to bet \$0.03 instead of \$0.10 on the flop to see the turn card. And you would've wanted your opponent to bet \$0.05 into a now pot of \$0.19 to see the river.

But because you paid \$0.07 more to see the turn card and \$0.15 more to see the river card, you must now make up \$0.22 - \$0.23 to be breakeven.

EDIT: This is the conclusion that I came to. If I am wrong in any way, please feel free to correct me because I am always willing to learn.

FYI: I did 20% on river because that's the percent I got from imputing a flush draw on cardplayer's poker odds calculator.
• Bronze
Joined: 27.01.2010
Thanks for that detailed response! I'm glad to see you were using your work hours wisely.

I hear it said so often that money in the pot already is dead money. That's the reason for my confusion. Your interpretation seems to be the most logical.

Thanks again!
• Bronze
Joined: 03.12.2010
Hey Guys,

Hopefully maythany has explained it well enough for you to understand

Also, have you checked out our Implied Odds article? That should clear up any confusion for you!