# When do I know if I'm running really bad?

• Bronze
Joined: 08.12.2009
How is the standard deviation from all in EV calculated?

I restarted playing NL50 about a week or so back and I've been running quite bad but I wasn't sure if this was normal. I think I'm about 15 BI below EV more or less. Is being these many BI below EV an extreme run of bad cards or is it quite standard?
• 13 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 08.08.2010
Its moderately bad. Not standard in the sense that its still unlikely. But not bad enough to be impressive. Don't know if that helps

Oh wait, its pokerstars. Then its STANDARD!
• Bronze
Joined: 25.05.2011
Still stnd...
• Bronze
Joined: 08.12.2009
Originally posted by Itsnevereasy
But not bad enough to be impressive.
Haha.

But that still doesn't really answer my question. What would be really bad. Like how do I calculate the standard deviation over x number of hands?
• Bronze
Joined: 25.10.2006
You can't really calculate it on your own. I mean you could, but you shouldn't
Just use HM and its SD stat.

Maybe filter your all-in hands. This way you will get x numbers of instances you were in "EV-allin" situation, you'll get your expected winrate (EV), take 100bb/100 SD and put it in variance calc.

If we just take 3,75bb/100 winrate (your all-in EV), 32k hands, 100bb/100 SD... Well then your results are nothing special. In fact, they are pretty standard. But of course that's not what you wanted to know
• Bronze
Joined: 08.09.2010
pretty standard if we take this into account

• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
Once again, a discussion opens up about all-in EV

If you are the sort of player that goes all-in pre only with big pairs, and only go AI post w/ the nuts or near-nutz, you will always run above EV, simply because when you win you win 100% of the pot, but your EV is only around 70-80.

Remember too, that if you get folds, that does not show on the EV line at all, so if you like to shove FDs as a semi-bluff, it will not affect your EV if you get folds, you go way above EV when you win, and below if you lose.

I really don't think the EV line gives us any information that is useful for improving our games -- so I don't show it or look at it at all any more.

Cheers,
--VS
• Coach
Coach
Joined: 02.10.2012
Originally posted by VorpalF2F
If you are the sort of player that goes all-in pre only with big pairs, and only go AI post w/ the nuts or near-nutz, you will always run above EV, simply because when you win you win 100% of the pot, but your EV is only around 70-80.
wait what? but when you lose you lose 100% of the pot...
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
Originally posted by oblioo
Originally posted by VorpalF2F
If you are the sort of player that goes all-in pre only with big pairs, and only go AI post w/ the nuts or near-nutz, you will always run above EV, simply because when you win you win 100% of the pot, but your EV is only around 70-80.
wait what? but when you lose you lose 100% of the pot...
You never lose w/ big pairs though...

Thanks for the edit -- I forgot to add that part.
--VS
• Coach
Coach
Joined: 02.10.2012
oh ha sorry i thought you were serious
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
Partly -- I did forget to add the downside part, but I am serious about disregarding the EV line.

It MIGHT have some use if we filtered only for hands that were all-in on or before the river.

I don't see, though what information it has that could help me improve.

Is there something I'm missing?

Cheers,
--VS
• Coach
Coach
Joined: 02.10.2012
I agree that it's fine and probably healthy to disregard your EV line. It is a slightly more accurate way to estimate your true winrate, but obviously variance comes in many more forms than just all-in EV.
• Bronze
Joined: 02.08.2010