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When do I know if I'm running really bad?

    • clawindsouza
      clawindsouza
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.12.2009 Posts: 7,085
      How is the standard deviation from all in EV calculated?




      I restarted playing NL50 about a week or so back and I've been running quite bad but I wasn't sure if this was normal. I think I'm about 15 BI below EV more or less. Is being these many BI below EV an extreme run of bad cards or is it quite standard?
  • 13 replies
    • Itsnevereasy
      Itsnevereasy
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      Its moderately bad. Not standard in the sense that its still unlikely. But not bad enough to be impressive. Don't know if that helps :coolface:

      Oh wait, its pokerstars. Then its STANDARD! :f_cool:
    • Fiskantes
      Fiskantes
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.05.2011 Posts: 7,782
      Still stnd...
    • clawindsouza
      clawindsouza
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.12.2009 Posts: 7,085
      Originally posted by Itsnevereasy
      But not bad enough to be impressive.
      Haha. :D

      But that still doesn't really answer my question. What would be really bad. Like how do I calculate the standard deviation over x number of hands?
    • CoreySteel
      CoreySteel
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 3,366
      You can't really calculate it on your own. I mean you could, but you shouldn't :P
      Just use HM and its SD stat.

      Maybe filter your all-in hands. This way you will get x numbers of instances you were in "EV-allin" situation, you'll get your expected winrate (EV), take 100bb/100 SD and put it in variance calc.

      If we just take 3,75bb/100 winrate (your all-in EV), 32k hands, 100bb/100 SD... Well then your results are nothing special. In fact, they are pretty standard. But of course that's not what you wanted to know :)
    • Rihard4a
      Rihard4a
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.09.2010 Posts: 2,064
      pretty standard if we take this into account

    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,728
      Once again, a discussion opens up about all-in EV ?(

      If you are the sort of player that goes all-in pre only with big pairs, and only go AI post w/ the nuts or near-nutz, you will always run above EV, simply because when you win you win 100% of the pot, but your EV is only around 70-80.

      Remember too, that if you get folds, that does not show on the EV line at all, so if you like to shove FDs as a semi-bluff, it will not affect your EV if you get folds, you go way above EV when you win, and below if you lose.


      I really don't think the EV line gives us any information that is useful for improving our games -- so I don't show it or look at it at all any more.

      Cheers,
      --VS
    • oblioo
      oblioo
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 02.10.2012 Posts: 338
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      If you are the sort of player that goes all-in pre only with big pairs, and only go AI post w/ the nuts or near-nutz, you will always run above EV, simply because when you win you win 100% of the pot, but your EV is only around 70-80.
      wait what? but when you lose you lose 100% of the pot...
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,728
      Originally posted by oblioo
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      If you are the sort of player that goes all-in pre only with big pairs, and only go AI post w/ the nuts or near-nutz, you will always run above EV, simply because when you win you win 100% of the pot, but your EV is only around 70-80.
      wait what? but when you lose you lose 100% of the pot...
      You never lose w/ big pairs though... :coolface:

      Thanks for the edit -- I forgot to add that part.
      --VS
    • oblioo
      oblioo
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 02.10.2012 Posts: 338
      oh ha sorry i thought you were serious :f_eek:
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,728
      Partly -- I did forget to add the downside part, but I am serious about disregarding the EV line.

      It MIGHT have some use if we filtered only for hands that were all-in on or before the river.

      I don't see, though what information it has that could help me improve.

      Is there something I'm missing?

      Cheers,
      --VS
    • oblioo
      oblioo
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 02.10.2012 Posts: 338
      I agree that it's fine and probably healthy to disregard your EV line. It is a slightly more accurate way to estimate your true winrate, but obviously variance comes in many more forms than just all-in EV.
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      [x] when you know your running bad

    • ggiants81
      ggiants81
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.02.2012 Posts: 126
      Ragney,, that was an ugly graph.. I can feel your pain.