Expected flop equity

• Bronze
Joined: 15.06.2009
Am I the only one having problems assessing the true value preflop of marginal hands out of position?

I'm thinking about those 5:1, 7:1, etc spots in the blinds with trashy hands. Recalling a number of old related threads and hand evaluations on the subject, it seems to me like the rundown equity is given too much wight in such discussions. It may go like "You have X% (very small, but mathematically enough) rundown equity in a N-player deal and a 50% discount- go for it". Others point out that having equity isn't the same thing as realizing that equity.

The number I'd like to know in these close situations is the expected flop rundown equity. That is, what kind of rundown equity can I expect once the flop has arrived, and how is it distributed (SD, GS, FD, two pair, etc) given my hand and my estimates of my opponents ranges.

Question:Is there a tool for this?

/Johan =
• 15 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 28.04.2010
"no because no one knows what you are talking about. "

-------

i dont know of any tool that can do that sorry but i felt sorry that no one had answered yet
• Bronze
Joined: 29.05.2009
Originally posted by YohanN7
Am I the only one having problems assessing the true value preflop of marginal hands out of position?

I'm thinking about those 5:1, 7:1, etc spots in the blinds with trashy hands. Recalling a number of old related threads and hand evaluations on the subject, it seems to me like the rundown equity is given too much wight in such discussions. It may go like "You have X% (very small, but mathematically enough) rundown equity in a N-player deal and a 50% discount- go for it". Others point out that having equity isn't the same thing as realizing that equity.

The number I'd like to know in these close situations is the expected flop rundown equity. That is, what kind of rundown equity can I expect once the flop has arrived, and how is it distributed (SD, GS, FD, two pair, etc) given my hand and my estimates of my opponents ranges.

Question:Is there a tool for this?

/Johan =
Relax. Just play
• Silver
Joined: 02.01.2009
Basically there is no such tool because the answer to that question depends heavily on eg. the nature of the players in the hand, their percieved image of you, game flow, your edge....
• Bronze
Joined: 15.06.2009
No Jan217, given my opponents ranges and my hand, it is easy, but extremely tedious to calculate what I am after. This is why I want a tool.

By the way, the expected flop rundown equity ought to be precisely the preflop rundown equity. The important thing is how that equity is distributed.

I'm probably more interested in playing, say, suited small gappers than Q5 because most value in Q5 lies in hitting pairs and two pair. I am not likely to get full value out of position with such a hand. With a drawing hand, I'm quite likely to get full value, even out of position.

The above paragraph is of course qualitatively obvious. I'd like to see the numbers, i.e. what percentage of flops will give me draws of various kinds, what percentage of flops will give me bottom pair with an overcard kicker?

Does it make my question clearer Avataren?

taavi: Relax. Just play .
Right! But at the moment I enjoy discussing poker more than playing. I have lost my BR playing drunk (again). FL \$0.02/\$0.04 isn't too fun.

/Johan =
• Bronze
Joined: 15.06.2009
I found it

Here: Flopzilla

I have used it for about 40 seconds. It seems extremely promising. Seven days free trial, 35 bucks
• Bronze
Joined: 16.06.2011
I dont think that it will give a good answer.

1. Your opponents flop calling range depends on the board texture, i.e. your value range depends also on that and if you just simply calculate with your opponents preflop range instead of his flop ranges then you will make a mistake.

2. Your bluffing range depends on your value range and this brings back you to point #1

Without these its very hard to estimate the real value of a hand on the flop
• Bronze
Joined: 15.06.2009
@kav

The tool delivers precisely the expected distribution of what I can expect on a flop for a single hand. This is part of what I wanted. But Flopzilla has much more.

You can match a single hand versus a range on random flops, particular flops, turns and rivers. The range can be filtered in each step (flop, turn river) in every detail. It's a lot more than I was hoping for. That tool, but generalized to two or more ranges (i.e. two or more opponents) would be brilliant. But I am more than happy with it as it stands and have coughed up the \$35. Just as useful as Equilab and Combonator.

You can also "practice" with it by pressing the "random" button to generate flops and try to estimate your equity versus the opponents range and also the distribution (on this and that flop he has X% FD, Y% TP, Z% air, etc).
• Bronze
Joined: 16.06.2011
You dont get the gist of it. In order to get the right answer you need to work with dynamic ranges, but flopzilla uses a static range (I dont have it but i tried it once). The range of your opponet(s) depends on the board texture, cause on a K73 board his turn range most probably wont contain A2, while on a 34T it will, and I doubt flopzilla can tell you how many times your opponent folds a particular hand in gerneral, and what his 'average' turn range will be.
To get the right answer you need to check the sum of the EV of your hand on every possible board vs every range your opponent folds/calls/raises also with regard to future streets and action ( if you calculate EV like EV= Hot/Cod Equity*potsize-1bet it will mislead you the same way)
• Bronze
Joined: 15.06.2009
@kav

In the OP I asked for a simple tool. How does a hand hit a typical board. I found such a tool. The tool can do much more than that. Are you arguing that I didn't find such a tool?

Rundown equities, by the way are rundown equities. There are no folds, but yes, you can do that too in Flopzilla.

Your approach, by the way, is sort of ambitious. You are trying to solve the game of poker. GL
• Bronze
Joined: 16.06.2011
Well I thought you asked for equity, this is the title of the topic, and its also mentioned it in the first post ('The number I'd like to know...'), and it means the chance of winning at SD and as such equity can only be interpreted in relation to a range ('given my hand and my estimates of my opponents ranges'). I reflected on the latter, and said that flopzilla wont give you any information about that.

Plus you also mentioned 'assessing the true value of a hand preflop', and for this pot equity is just one of the factors to consider.

Just simply examining how many times a hand hits the board is a quite different subject from these.
• Bronze
Joined: 15.06.2009
You are twisting things around. This is what the OP asks for:

Originally posted by YohanN7
The number I'd like to know in these close situations is the expected flop rundown equity. That is, what kind of rundown equity can I expect once the flop has arrived, and how is it distributed (SD, GS, FD, two pair, etc) given my hand and my estimates of my opponents ranges.
There is no mention of chances of winning at SD when playing real poker. None at all.

It's very simple. The program gives this number I want (as does Equilab) and it tells me how it is distributed over random flops, (as does not Equilab). Examining this distribution is part of assessing the true preflop value of a hand. This is verbatim what I wanted.

It also tells me how a hand fares against a range (non-static) on specific flops, turns and rivers separately. But this is bonus functionality.

But you obviously don't agree that this is what I wanted or asked for. Perhaps Avataren is right in his post here.
• Bronze
Joined: 18.01.2008
With ProPokerTools -simulator you can at least check what is your equity against villains range on number of flops like this:

There is also Odds Orachle and PokerRanger, have you check them out?

EDIT: I don't have that much experience neither one of those softwares so i really can't tell if they are what youre looking for.
• Bronze
Joined: 15.06.2009
Thanks for the hint. It looks like ProPokerTools and Flopzilla have the same underlying raw data, but I have no particular need for the graphical presentation. I want it broken down into particular holdings like top pair, etc.

Now when you remind me, I actually have PokerRanger downloaded, but I have forgotten to try it out. Now the free trial is surely expired

Anyways, Flopzilla is perfect for my needs. I've purchased it. It's used a lot in the NL videos by the coaches too. That's where I caught sight of it.
• Bronze
Joined: 16.06.2011
Originally posted by YohanN7

There is no mention of chances of winning at SD when playing real poker. None at all.
How would you define the term 'equity' then ?

It also tells me how a hand fares against a range (non-static) on specific flops, turns and rivers separately. But this is bonus functionality.

vs what kind of range ? Vs his preflop range ? Or does it calculate the opponents turn and river range on each board ?
• Bronze
Joined: 15.06.2009
Originally posted by kavboj84
Originally posted by YohanN7

There is no mention of chances of winning at SD when playing real poker. None at all.
How would you define the term 'equity' then ?
Rundown equity, just like Equilab and all other tool defines it.

Originally posted by kavboj84
It also tells me how a hand fares against a range (non-static) on specific flops, turns and rivers separately. But this is bonus functionality.

vs what kind of range ? Vs his preflop range ? Or does it calculate the opponents turn and river range on each board ?
I suggest you get it and find out for yourself. It's not a poker playing robot, it is a simple and useful tool. It uses the ranges I tell it to use.