This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[PROJECT] From Rags to Riches 2.0 (PLO10 version)

    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,283


      A month ago I finished my Rags to Riches project that featured a free coaching.
      Original Thread
      Follow up and Conclusion Thread

      That went well, so now it's time to take a step further. I am going to play 20K hands on PLO10 Zoom, and try to apply the same approach as in PLO2 Challenge. It won't be exactly the same, as in PLO10 there are some opponents that we need to adjust against.

      My goal is to have 10b/100 EV winrate, as I think that would be a pretty big victory in tight pool with high rake. Feel free to post predictions, as there is a prize for the one who makes the best estimation:

      Winner gets 5% of my actual winnings

      The Catch: Prize will be paid out ONLY if my EV winrate is 10bb/100 or more.

      But it's free to apply. With 10bb/100 winnings that would be $10 to the winner. If I run super hot, that would be... $$$.

      Prediction time ends just before Super Bowl, which is Sunday 4th of February 24:00 CET. So get your predictions in. I will post the first update after that.

      Prediction: You have to guess/estimate my winrates after 20K hands. Say my winrate and my EV winrate in bb/100, like 23bb/100 and 45bb/100. Or just post 13/23 (where the first number is actual winrate and second one is EV winrate).

      Rules of the Game:
      I will play 20K hands on PLO10 Zoom, posting updates every 1000 hands or after the sessions. Participants are allowed to make one prediction of my winrate and EV winrate. The one who gets closest is the winner. With a tie, the one who had the closest EV winrate is the winner.
      To make sure that can't be tied, participant is not allowed to pick a prediction that someone else has already posted. In the case of that happening, the first poster's prediction is valid.
  • 26 replies
    • Bruno3000
      Bruno3000
      Silver
      Joined: 09.01.2015 Posts: 72
      My guess ist 17/20
    • makinee
      makinee
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.11.2014 Posts: 12
      12/16
    • FerlichL
      FerlichL
      Silver
      Joined: 15.11.2009 Posts: 177
      Winning 18bb/100
      EV 16bb/100
    • SeagalSteven
      SeagalSteven
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 926
      Gl gl, and nice job with the 1.0 version, good stuff.

      Winrate 13bb, EV 25. Sorry for jinx :D
    • AgapieGheorghe
      AgapieGheorghe
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2011 Posts: 1,524
      Good luck !

      Winning 23bb/100
      EV 18bb/100
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,283
      You still got few hours to join and make a prediction. Free money, and only 5 participants? :)
    • rompas
      rompas
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.02.2014 Posts: 3,522
      14/21
    • repescov
      repescov
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 164
      22/15
    • benaars
      benaars
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 783
      18/24
    • BluffinBilbo
      BluffinBilbo
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.07.2009 Posts: 871
      Hoping the "system" will process this late reg: 11/14
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,283
      As I haven't posted the first update, you are good. :)
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,283
      Here is the situation at the moment:


      Not as smooth as the previous project. Since the hot start, I have had an avalanche of setups. Today was the worst, nutflush vs 2nd nutflush all the time, trips vs trips in 3bet pots, rivered backdoors and 2 outers from left and right. Also faced straight flush twice when I had nutflush. And then in the end I got another heater.

      Greenline is awesome. Orange is mediocre. But I expect it to rise again, as those setups shouldn't continue for eternity. My Call River Efficiency was as low as 0,22 at one point today. In the end it's 1,16. It dived as I made those calldowns with those 2nd nuts versus nuts all the time.

      As the aggression is a bit higher than at PLO2, the variance goes up. This shoud get interesting, here are all the participants so far:


      Here are the current winrates:


      Closest prediction at the moment is from repescov!
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,283
      7,5K done.



      Same in numbers:




      Now when the Avalanche of Setups is over, the orange line (is that what Trump's wall is going to be called too?) starts to go in to right direction too. Looks like the overall prize will be decent sized, if the graphs keep it going.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,283
      Well, it didn't. 13 buyins down, Avalanche continues.



      Quite horrible session. It was hard to get the stacks in, and when I did it was like flopping the nuts, and betting flop and turn for value. On the river opponent has made runner runner hand, when calling the flop with trash. Basic theme of the session was "get the money in against 4-8 outer, lose by the river". Then some setups in 3bet pots (trips vs trips, or aggro calling preflop 3bet with TT83r, and stacking me off on T63ss while I had AA89ss) and insane amount of check-call, check-raise lines from opponents. I only assume that for most of the times it was slowplayed set or similar, but then few guys had that line with bare overpair.

      That's one of the harders things at PLO10z. People do strange things, and you just don't know who does it nor when. A reg with decent stats played bare AA by just calling preflop, check-calling on QJ8ss flop (without the flushdraw) and then check-raising on blank turn. He didn't have blocker, and I have no idea if it was a bluff (bad one) or a value shove (bad one). Then when you think that "ok, they overplay that kind of hands" you face slowplayed top sets on those spots. The logic of the playing field is illogical, and it's easy to get lost in there.

      Getting value is also one problem. There are players that give a lot of value. But majority of the field are just passive nits. As I color code nits with red, I have almost run out of red in my client. Against those it's nearly impossible to play a big pot without a setup. In the long run setups don't really make money and smaller pots don't overcome the rake.

      At least I am still making small profit. And paid over $150 in rake while doing that.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,283
      Well, that evened out smoothly...


      Just a normal 24 buyin downswing.

      My everyday grinding session in this project: nut boat vs. quads twice, nut flush vs straight flush, and then five stacks lost to gamblers who cold called my 3bet with rainbow pocket pair and flopped a set.

      And besides that, nothing held as you can see from the graph.

      7,5K hands left in the project, looks like we might end up almost anywhere.
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 2,115
      Lol running out of red for marking nits :D
      And I can't even the last time I had such an over ev heater, nor a 20+ bi downswing you get it all in 12k hands

      Devil's game this is !
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,283
      Swingaments!


      I got something back, and then I lost it. But the story line is set: no one outplays me, the only way to win a big pot from me is either -EV call or a setup.

      As long as the way to lose money is when regs keep cold calling 3bets with J986ss 200bb deep, then call a 4bet and hitting QT7ss flop, I should be ok.

      Strange thing is that somewhat passive guys make sometimes strange river bluffs. Probably the reason is that they don't have any idea about range thinking, so they don't even think what they are representing nor what is my range. They just bet cos they want to bluff.

      BTN: 297.7 BB (VPIP: 28.72, PFR: 7.45, 3Bet Preflop: 2.38, Hands: 95)
      SB: 209.9 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 15.15, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 34)
      Hero (BB): 660.8 BB
      UTG: 156.1 BB (VPIP: 32.74, PFR: 14.16, 3Bet Preflop: 7.27, Hands: 116)
      MP: 112.6 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
      CO: 236.2 BB (VPIP: 7.22, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 1.27, Hands: 183)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:club: A:heart: 9:club: K:heart:

      UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, UTG calls 7.5 BB

      Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) T:heart: 9:spade: 4:diamond:
      Hero bets 16.1 BB, UTG calls 16.1 BB

      Turn: (54.7 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond:
      Hero bets 39.3 BB, UTG calls 39.3 BB

      Here I bet just to realize the folding equity we have. Opponent is kind of a player who would raise 2pairs+ on the flop. 3 doesn't hit often his UTG hand, so most of the times he has Txxx/9xxx/draw here.

      River: (133.3 BB, 2 players) 2:club:
      Hero checks, UTG bets 89.7 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 89.7 BB

      On the river he decides to shove. When there is a flush draw open on the turn, he would have shoved any 2pairs+ on the turn for sure. So the only hands that beat me are some kind of T2xx (unlikely) and 56/A5 (unlikely). And if he had T2,92 I think he would check back them some of the times. He is repping such a narrow range, and on the other hand he has a lot of missed draws. If he would have thought about my range, I shouldn't have that many hands that I would check-fold. Probably all my checking hands will have showdown value (as I would bet my air), so that's a bad spot for him to bluff.

      UTG shows T:club: 5:diamond: Q:club: K:diamond: (One Pair, Tens)
      (Pre 30%, Flop 43%, Turn 45%)
      Hero shows K:club: A:heart: 9:club: K:heart: (One Pair, Kings)
      (Pre 70%, Flop 57%, Turn 55%)
      Hero wins 299.4 BB
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 39,630
      That’s a crazy hand for sure. It looks like you are in a downswing. Hopefully you will get up again.
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 2,115
      That hand lol
    • 1
    • 2