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[NL2-NL10] Nl50 99, Bu

    • jenoc
      jenoc
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 510
      BB is a SSS 9/8 stats, have only 113 hands

      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      SB ($18.70)
      BB ($10)
      UTG ($10.50)
      UTG+1 ($44.10)
      MP1 ($98.35)
      MP2 ($50.55)
      CO ($30)
      Hero (Button) ($10.25)

      Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
      4 folds, CO (poster) checks, Hero bets $2.25, 1 fold, BB raises $4, 2 folds

      Total pot: $5.25

      I wasn't sure what to do, so just folded. would you threat this like a normal steal situation?

      Jenoc
  • 8 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      I would prefer to fold here against another SSS player.

      Best regards,
      Rensu
    • maniac
      maniac
      Silver
      Joined: 29.03.2006 Posts: 7,559
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello,

      I would prefer to fold here against another SSS player.

      Best regards,
      Rensu
      #2 preflop 5BB
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,107
      9/8 looks solid, so I muck here as well. You are behind his 3-bet range here.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by burek2000
      9/8 looks solid, so I muck here as well. You are behind his 3-bet range here.
      ??

      Standard 3bet resteal is AJ+,88+
      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 43.863% 43.09% 00.77% 376320840 6722076.00 { 99 }
      Hand 1: 56.137% 55.37% 00.77% 483510048 6722076.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }

      1/2.593 = 38.5% BEQ

      I push this one.

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Gerv
      Originally posted by burek2000
      9/8 looks solid, so I muck here as well. You are behind his 3-bet range here.
      ??

      Standard 3bet resteal is AJ+,88+
      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 43.863% 43.09% 00.77% 376320840 6722076.00 { 99 }
      Hand 1: 56.137% 55.37% 00.77% 483510048 6722076.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }

      1/2.593 = 38.5% BEQ

      I push this one.

      Best regards,
      Gerv
      How do you push this one?

      EV(Push) = 0,439*6,25 - 0,561*8 = -$1.744

      You need to win like 56,1% equity for break-even.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I think you cant use P*F + (1-FE)(ES+DM)*EQ - (1-EQ)*ES after a 3bet since you only can use this at the start of the round, still I will reach Xarry2 for this if you can use this.

      But I have to push $7.75 to win $13*0.95 assuming 0% FE imo

      - Gerv
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,107
      Originally posted by Gerv
      Originally posted by burek2000
      9/8 looks solid, so I muck here as well. You are behind his 3-bet range here.
      ??

      Best regards,
      Gerv
      I totally agree this hand would be insta push against AJ+/88+, but I'm not sure that's the correct BB's 3-bet range. He could be PS.com SSSer, but if he is, wth is he doing by minraising, he should've pushed preflop. So, looked at this guy more like a tight player than regular SSS player I presumed he was on tighter range than AJ+/88+. Also, sometimes I as well am more careful when there's poster involved in a hand and is BU not openraising.
    • xarry2
      xarry2
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 834
      Hi guys,

      gerv wrote me about this hand and the discussion wether to push or not. first we should take a look at the pot odds we get for an all-in. for simplyfication I assume that BB pushed all-in. I don't assume he'll fold when we add 6$ to his 4$ raise.
      I made a exel pot odds-equity calculator with this formula. If you want it take a look at my review thread:

      NL SSS Advanced by xarry2

      you'll find my chart collection there.

      So I just fill the gaps:

      Pot: 0.50$ from CO, 2.25 from Hero, SB 0.25 and BB 10$ = 13$
      to call: after our raise we have 10$ (we have to count the effective stack!) - 2.25$ left = 7.75$

      The pot odds are 1.68:1 and if you fill pot/to call into the calculator you'll get 37.35% break even equity. (without rake btw, it would increase our BE-equity a bit)
      Now we have to evaluate if we have enough equity against the restealers range. What could it be like?

      really tight:
      vs. JJ+, AK: we have 33.2% equity and we should fold

      tight:
      TT+, AQ+: we have 37.3%, still a close fold.

      vs any looser range we have a call.
      This sitaution is probably one where I would give BU the least credit if I were in the BB. CO posts and checks, thats - with ABC-blinds - a 100% steal for me. I also like the raise size. 3BB+1 are also possible. Thus I would never assume something like those two tight ranges. The point is we don't know much and we see 9/8. this is such a strong indicator for a SSSP. As long as I don't have more information about him and his restealing plays I don't like to fold here. Besides the possibility that he's not a SSSP the minraise could be a missclick, a cheap resteal with the intention to play 3bet/fold or his standard restealing play.
      Thus: by default its a clear call for me considering the steal situation and the information I have so far.