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Liar Dice - SnGs & PLO

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,683
      Do you play on Fulltilt NL100? I might have seen you there SSS'ing as well..

      hmm
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Yep. I've definitely seen another PS contributor around too, but not sure about you.

      Actually, I just realised, I might have seen you - but then I don't know your Nick :)

      Do you find NL 100 SSS more profitable than NL200 SSS (even though I guess you must have the BR for it)? Not enough action at 200, maybe?

      Cheers,
      T6
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Well, it's official; my lucky run at NL100 was just that - luck.

      After wiping another $175 of my BR this morning, sadly the time has come to move back down to NL50. I've sort of been expecting it, so amazingly I don't feel too distraught. To cut a long story short, in the last week I've won $400 and then lost $300 of it back.

      In theory, I could keep playing at NL 100 until I drop below $300 but I've no intention of doing so. Although I've had some ugly suckouts over the last 48 hours a lot of my losses are down to poor discipline. That's obviously something I need to work on, and it's simply too expensive to do that for $20 a time :rolleyes:

      Since all my losses have once again been playing SSS, I'm not sure whether to take a break and concentrate on SnGs or just get straight back on the horse...

      Since I'm in the business of looking for consolations prizes, while losing $175, I did clear $20 of bonus!!! :D So, time to look for a new bonus elsewhere...

      Statistics (as of Feb 09)

      Current overall BR: $523.5
      Overall SnG ROI: (6.83%)
      ROI last 100 games: (26.248%)
      Profit from SnGs: $88.10
      Tournaments played: 391
      Ring Games winrate (SSS NL100): -8.4BB/100 (2832 hands)
      Ring Games winrate (SSS NL50): 12.38BB/100
      Ring Games winrate (SSS NL25): 1.96BB/100
      Ring Games winrate (SSS NL10): 1.82/100
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,683
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Do you find NL 100 SSS more profitable than NL200 SSS (even though I guess you must have the BR for it)? Not enough action at 200, maybe?
      NL200 is more filled with TAGs/LAGs so you have to adapt. NL100 for sure is filled with more fish because there are more players ;)
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      I find I feel most like blogging when I've either had a really bad session or a really good one. Probably I should blog after each session for consistency but I'm too lazy for that. I started my new part time job on Monday - 4 hour evening shifts - which leaves me plenty of time for poker and trying to finalise my novel. Just played a very satisfying session which pushed my overall BR north of $500 again. The session couldn't have gotten off to a better start:

      First hand:

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $10.00
      MP1:
      $57.56

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:heart: , K:club:
      3 folds, MP1 raises to $1.50, 5 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, MP1 raises to $32.00, Hero calls $6.00 (All-In).

      Flop: ($42.25) 7:club: , 2:spade: , 6:spade:
      Turn: ($42.25) A:club:
      River: ($42.25) 6:heart: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $42.25

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows two pairs, kings and sixes (Kh Kc)
      MP1 shows two pairs, sixes and fours (4c 4h)

      Hero wins with two pairs, kings and sixes (Kh Kc)


      Then, on the same table (so now I have a double stack), I get dealt Aces:

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      UTG1:
      $47.56
      CO:
      $104.92
      Hero:
      $18.99

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:diamond: , A:heart:
      UTG folds, UTG1 calls $0.50, 4 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3.00, 2 folds, UTG1 calls $2.50, CO folds.

      Flop: ($7.25) 6:spade: , 6:club: , Q:heart: (2 players)
      UTG1 checks, Hero bets $4.00, UTG1 calls $4.00.

      Turn: ($15.25) 4:spade: (2 players)
      UTG1 checks, Hero raises $11.99 (All-In), UTG1 folds.

      Final Pot: $27.24

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows two pairs, aces and sixes (Ad Ah)

      Hero wins with two pairs, aces and sixes (Ad Ah)

      I wonder what he had?

      Then, literally two minutes later, still on the same table I get dealt QQ now with a 50BB in front of me (hardly ideal for a shortstacker, but you can't not play Queens, can you?):

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      UTG1:
      $88.67
      Hero:
      $26.48

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q:spade: , Q:diamond:
      UTG folds, UTG1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 4 folds, UTG1 calls $2.00.

      Flop: ($5.75) 9:club: , 5:heart: , 4:club: (2 players)
      UTG1 bets $3.00, Hero raises to $11.00, UTG1 raises to $19.00, Hero calls $12.98 (All-In), UTG1 calls $4.98.

      Turn: ($53.71) 8:spade:
      River: ($53.71) 9:spade: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $53.71

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows two pairs, queens and nines (Qs Qd)
      UTG1 shows a pair of nines (Ad 2d)

      Hero wins with two pairs, queens and nines (Qs Qd)

      I was really anxious - just waiting for villain to turn over trips (the only real way to explain his play) - but then I saw the chips heading my way. I had to know what he had so clicked the hand history only to find he'd absolutely nothing. WTF? donking into me with nothing, not even a draw? Then 4betting my 3bet? Didn't think there were :f_eek: like these on NL50... Maybe he couldn't believe I could get so lucky with hands 3 times in a row but still :rolleyes:

      So anyway, I ended the session with a nice profit of $35 despite a few bad beats like this one:

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP3:
      $5.83
      Hero:
      $12.45

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:club: , A:spade:
      5 folds, MP3 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, MP3 raises to $5.83 (All-In), Hero calls $3.33.

      Flop: ($12.41) A:diamond: , T:heart: , J:diamond:
      Turn: ($12.41) 9:club:
      River: ($12.41) 5:diamond: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $12.41

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows three of a kind, aces (Ac As)
      MP3 shows a flush, ace high (Kd 7d)

      MP3 wins with a flush, ace high (Kd 7d)

      Again, WTF???! Limping then calling a SSS re-raise with K7s?
      ...

      By way of an update, I recently withdrew my $575 from Full Tilt and, via moneybookers, have sent $275 of it back to myself. This means I'm now up to date and don't owe myself anything anymore (I borrowed a bit from myself to fund a first deposit bonus and also allocated a bit of my winnings to treats). So now the money I have on Party and the little I have left on Full Tilt is, as it were, 'pure profit'. And it feels pretty good to have made over $500 playing poker with no risk to the family finances, I must say.

      I got a reload bonus of $75 on Party when I t/ferred the money there, so now I'm working that off (I only have 30 days and it's a nasty all or nothing jobbie), by playing SSS NL 50. Once that's cleared, I'll buy a $100 bonus with my points and hope that gets me up to at least $600+. Once I'm there I can get a maximum FDB at another site - any suggestions where for NL50 SSS?

      I haven't played many SnGs of late as I'm nervous about slipping into the red again :) Maybe once the necessity of clearing this bonus so quickly has passed, I'll have another crack... On the other hand I've started experimenting with BSS on NL10 and am finding hasenbraten's videos really helpful - enabling me to gradually expand my poker horizons...

      Truncated stats to date:

      Current overall BR: $537.39 (PP $512.09; FT $25.30)

      SnGs

      Overall SnG ROI: (5.65%)
      ROI last 100 games: (25.06%)
      ROI last 50 games: (34.65%)
      Profit from SnGs: $76.40
      Tournaments played: 404

      Ring Games

      Ring Games winrate (SSS NL50): 5.48BB/100 (only 948 hands in current DB)
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Hey Tim,

      Thanks for reading my blog firstly. :D Thought I'd come check yours out, and mate, you got a good blog :) .

      FTP btw: One of the greatest places to play SnG's (I used to play there) but one of the worst for cash. Cash games I found extremely hard at micro limits to NL50 on FTP. SnG's I found lots of fish.. Although I never made it out of the $20 SnG's. :)

      Do you mind me asking, how many tables do you play when you are using the SSS? I have a little theory I'd be happy to share ;)
      NL100 is just not a nice place full stop IMO lol...
      If SSS really isn't working for you though, and SnG's are, then the soloution is simple :) ... Flogging a dead horse ring any bells? ;)

      Good luck, I'll pop by from time to time and see how you are getting on... So I wanna see more updates.... Like everyday you've played :P

      Good luck at the tables mate,


      Danny

      EDIT** I use way to many smilies :] ... Also, any chance of a brief summary of your book? I could be looking for a signed copy ;) . I write and read a lot also :)

      Thrillers and crime mainly, but biographical books (from the right people I also enjoy).
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Well the downside of going fishing on Friday is that sometimes they not only bite...but end up swallowing your whole tackle as well :D

      Yesterday, an unpleasant 10BI d/swing hit me in the jaw. Today, hoping to get some of it back another 5BI was donated to the Friday fish on Party, something that has seen my BR tumbling from $500 to $350.

      At least this time I know it really is a downswing rather than my own poor play. And in a way, that makes it easier to deal with as I'm no longer immediately doubting myself. Still a bit of a pain though. Annoying when you start to see bonuses you're working towards merely in terms of loss mitigation rather than additional profit :rolleyes:

      Well then, a few bad beats for you, just to prove my point:


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $9.25
      UTG1:
      $18.40

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 7:spade: , 7:diamond:
      UTG1 calls $0.50, 7 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, UTG1 raises to $18.40 (All-In), Hero calls $6.75 (All-In).

      Flop: ($27.90) 6:spade: , 9:heart: , 3:heart:
      Turn: ($27.90) 2:spade:
      River: ($27.90) 6:club: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $27.90

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows two pairs, sevens and sixes (7s 7d)
      UTG1 shows a full-house, threes full of sixes (3c 3d)

      UTG1 wins with a full-house, threes full of sixes (3c 3d)

      Ho hum...


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $9.25
      MP2:
      $42.75

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with K:club: , A:heart:
      UTG1 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.00, 5 folds.

      Flop: ($4.75) 4:diamond: , 6:diamond: , 2:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.75, MP2 raises to $7.50, Hero calls $3.50 (All-In).

      Turn: ($19.50) 2:spade:
      River: ($19.50) 8:diamond: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $19.50

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows a pair of deuces (Kc Ah)
      MP2 shows two pairs, eights and deuces (8h Ac)

      MP2 wins with two pairs, eights and deuces (8h Ac)

      Nice. Villain calls a 4BB raise with Ace rag. Hits nothing on the flop, so naturally bluff-raises my c-bet. I put him all in as I'm committed now (no doubt I should have pushed the flop but it makes little difference as he's clearly not playing according to any normal logical principles and probably calls whatever), and of course... he hits the river.


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      UTG1:
      $15.44
      Hero:
      $9.25

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:club: , A:heart:
      UTG1 calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, UTG1 calls $2.00.

      Flop: ($5.75) K:club: , 4:club: , 7:diamond: (2 players)
      UTG1 bets $5.47, Hero raises to $6.75 (All-In), UTG1 calls $1.28.

      Turn: ($19.25) J:spade:
      River: ($19.25) A:spade: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $19.25

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows three of a kind, aces (Ac Ah)
      UTG1 shows a straight, ace high (Qh Td)

      UTG1 wins with a straight, ace high (Qh Td)

      Well, just the obligatory runner runner straight hit with a fishy call on the flop to bust my trip Aces. I know I'm supposed to be glad that there are idiot fish who'll play like this, but if I'm being honest, I'm only glad when they call and don't manage to suck out on me :D

      However, things go both ways and I'm not one of those who thinks suckouts only happen to others:

      This has to be the MOST UNBELIEVABLE SUCKOUT i've ever received. The chances of this have to be 1 in "a very small number":


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $49.16
      Hero:
      $10.00
      BU:
      $41.71

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 9:spade: , 9:heart:
      5 folds, BU calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $3.00, BU calls $2.50, SB calls $2.50.

      Flop: ($9.00) Q:heart: , A:club: , Q:spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, BU checks.

      Turn: ($9.00) 9:club: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero raises $7.00 (All-In), BU calls $7.00, SB folds.

      River: ($23.00) 9:diamond: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $23.00

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows four of a kind, nines (9s 9h)
      BU shows a full-house, queens full of aces (Ad Qc)

      Hero wins with four of a kind, nines (9s 9h)

      Shame this only happened once, compared to all the money flowing the other way... :evil:

      Well, thats all for now. Hope things get better soon. My $600 mini milestone suddenly seems a long way off once again :(

      P.S.
      Danny,

      I just posted on yr blog, but in answer to your qu'n, I play around 10-12 tables for NL 50 SSS. Basically, it's hard to play much more on Party - they just don't have enough at most times of the week. FTP is much better in that respect. What's your theory?
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Aw man them beats are as bad as mine... All my premium hands are cracked wide open... Theory would be nice if I was winning some hands, but it was mainly to do with more tables, and quicker variance turn around (which is useless now)... As it seems for every one hand I win I lose 2... Down another 4.5BI over 600 hands... Tried not to let it affect me, and losing that big chuck yesterday didn't, but losing such a big amount across such a small hand sample again is sucking it out of me...... No bonus to clear this loss lol...

      Sorry to hear ya running just bad dude. Guess the fish have to get food from somewhere, seems you and I are keeping the NL50 fish fat and plump... :s_mad:

      I'm tempted to drop right down to NL10 at the moment, but I need to gain another 900 odd VPP's to get my platinum and 80K VPP's and then SN... Not that it will do much good if I have no BR lol....

      Hope your swinging upwards as I am typing this mate,


      Best of luck,

      Danny


      EDIT ** Oh yeah, just a quicky, I ran your AA vs Q,T through the equilator....

      On the flop.... Your equity.... 96.2% :evil:

      I had almost the same hand, cept villian was holding A,Q vs my KK I hit my set on the flop lol. I'll have to find that one out actually lol...
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Last night I finally cleared a $75 bonus I'd been working on for a while, and felt ...... profoundly depressed.

      That's because, in the session in which I'd cleared it, I'd lost about $35 on the tables. This, on top of losing sessions for each of the last six days. I've lost the equivalent of 35BI over that period and my BR has been cut in half. Reviewing my hands, two things are clear:

      1. I am in the midst of a serious downswing with a large number of bad beats; BUT

      2. I am making the situation much, much worse by making far too many -EV decisions, many of which are downright stupid.

      The bonus has shunted me back over the $300 mark and so the temptation is to move straight back up to NL 50 SSS (moving down to NL25 in the first place was the one sensible thing I have done in the last week). But I'm NOT going to do that.

      I've got to prove to myself that I can play in such a way that I don't just bleed my money away like a child with a hole in his pocket, with thoughtless steals, chasing lost pots, getting involved in freeplay hands with less than 2 pair and re-raising without any reasonable certainty that I'm ahead pre-flop (just a select few of my 'seven deadly poker sins').

      So, I'm instituting the '1,000 Hand Challenge'.

      The rules are very simple: "I WILL NOT ALLOW MYSELF TO MOVE UP TO NL50 UNTIL I CAN PLAY 1,000 HANDS AT NL25 WITHOUT ANY 'UNFORCED ERRORS' ". (You'll have to please ignore the caps - the only person I'm shouting at is myself :f_p: )

      Depressing Stats summary:

      Current overall BR: $351.11 (PP $325.81; FT $25.30)

      SnGs

      Overall SnG ROI: (5.65%)
      ROI last 100 games: (25.06%)
      ROI last 50 games: (34.65%)
      Profit from SnGs: $76.40
      Tournaments played: 404

      Ring Games winrate (SSS NL50): I'm not telling you, I'm so embarassed
      Ring Games winrate (SSS NL25): Ditto :f_cry:
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Hey man,

      I know how ya feel, I am still aching from my SSS blast in my bankroll... But you seem to have a positive plan of action, if you want a sweat session anytime, just give me a shout, I'd be happy to sweat ya.

      I may not play SSS anymore but I went quite far with it, and commenting on other peoples play will be a lot easier than commenting on my own.

      Just a thought. Lemme know. I promise not to reveal results to the PS community :D

      Danny
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Progress on the 1,000 hand challenge has been so promising, I've extended it - the pop concert equivalent of adding more dates, I suppose.

      The idea, if you recall, was to ban myself from moving up to NL50 - even though I have the BR for it - until I've satisfied myself I can play pretty much mistake-free SSS on NL25.

      I've slowly increased my BR to the point where I now have 35 BI for the limit above but haven't yet managed 1000 hands with zero mistakes - although I'm not far off. Reviewing my last 1000, I find 2 clear errors and one close call. Originally, I'd been setting back the 'hand clock' to zero on every mistake but I think this is a bit too harsh.

      Instead, my plan now is simply to impose a 100 hand 'penalty' every time I make an unforced error. So, for my 3 mistakes, I need to play another 300 hands at nl25 before I can move up. Of course, if while I'm playing those 300 hands, I make an unforced error, I have to add on another 100 hands - and so on... In theory, I could be here for a while... :f_grin:

      It's a pretty simple idea but one with potential, I think. Because instead of setting myself money-won targets (like $100 profit by the end of the month) which I can't actually control because of the unpredictability of the cards, I set myself a skill based target which I can do something about. And hopefully, when I do move up to nl50 second time around, I'll be a better player, more in control of my dangerous and costly urges...

      over and out,
      Tim64
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      So, a rare same day update, because frankly it's nice to jot down some good news after quite a nasty downward dip.

      Finally made it through my 1300 hands without an error - I did a mouse slip which accidentally resulted in me minraising some shocking hand like 7,3o but I'm not counting that :f_biggrin:

      So at last allowed myself back up to NL50 SSS and it was a relief to get off to a good start with some nice hands which amazingly held up even multiway. Also I'm really noticing the difference in my play from the time spent studying and comtemplating recent troubles. I guess the two main improvements are:

      1. No more insane, -EV multitabling. E.g. I just ignored the horrid-grindinducing-supposedly-'free'-but-actually-really-costly-in-terms-of-likely-overall-damage to BR $100 bonus that Party was offering me at the end of May, and instead bought a 100$ bonus with my existing points, which I can clear at my leisure instead of being forced to multitable more than I can handle to earn large numbers of points each day. Instead I am limiting myself to 4 tables (or 5 if a really juicy one appears) and really concentrating on my individual opponents;

      2. This means I'm focussing much more on villains' stats and the kinds of hands they play and how. Then, when I see a showdown, even when I'm not involved, I colour code them and tap out my evil notes - especially when they do something really fishy, and this makes me feel empowered - as though they've just handed me an even bigger stick to bash them with :s_grin:

      Later dudes...

      My Slightly More Favourable Stats Than Last Time:

      Current overall BR: $434.41 (PP $409.11; FT $25.30)
      SnGs: No update, as I haven't played any for ages
      Ring Games winrate (SSS NL50): a negative number, but at least it's heading in the right direction again.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Hey Tim,

      I'm glad to hear you are up again! I seem never to get used to these ups and downs.. maybe after 1 million hands or so =D

      Anyway, keep up the good work mate, you'll be in NL100 in no time!

      Dandy.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      I need to get this down now even though it's 2am and I'm tired after an evening's work and then getting home, reviewing responses to posted hands and then hitting the tables for 90 mins.

      I moved up to NL50 a couple of days ago and things went well the first day after the recent $200 downswing. It felt like I was playing well, the BR was slowly going up and it seemed like I was making progress once again. A day one profit of $30 was pretty satisfying and - as always happens, I started extrapolating along the lines of: "at this rate, I'll have won back all my losses after about a week and be ready to start thinking about NL100 again".

      Then, later the next day, a losing session - down $60 (6BI). I am immediately crushed. The following thoughts go through my head:

      "Maybe I'm just a losing player";
      "This game is just a big waste of my time";
      "The only reason I have any BR at all is because of bonuses I've cleared - without them I'd have a negative balance";
      "Building a BR of, say, $1000 will take YEARS, not months. What am I doing investing so much time on this?"
      "The few people who DO make money playing poker have some knack or mathematical ability that I just don't have and that I never will".
      And so on...

      But that was yesterday. Today, before I left for work, I clawed back $20. And earlier tonight, thanks to some fishy play by donks out there, I not only clawed back the rest of the lost $60 but even moved ahead again. My BR is the highest it's been for over two weeks and so now, of course, I feel entirely different about the game. The following thoughts go through my head:

      "I just needed to be patient - the bad luck always evens out eventually and you start winning again";
      "I have a BR of over $400 - all won from other people. I MUST be a winning player. I have to stop doubting myself";
      "The dips on your graph are irrelevant, so long as the overall trend is upwards. You have to imagine how the graph will look in a year's time: that $200 loss you were so miserable about will look like a small dip and the $60 loss you scowled over will be a tiny pinprick - almost invisible";
      "You've got to stop worrying about the profitability of individual sessions. All that matters is ensuring you make as few mistakes as possible. If you do that and follow the articles and the advice of people on this site, you WILL make money in the long run."
      "You don't NEED to be Einstein. You just have to work hard, be mentally tough and think through each decision rather than acting with your gut."
      And so on...

      So the real question is this:

      When I am in a downswing, why can't I think rationally about the reasons why it happened - i.e. the variability of the cards and the necessity of losing a certain number of situations where you are a mathematical favourite? Why do I internalise the situation and make it about me, rather than the cards - which I cannot alter?

      And, when I am in an upswing, and in a single session I have a winrate of, say, 20BB/100 hands, why do I find it so difficult to understand that this is not a realistic winrate. That it is only part of the very gentle upward movement that the line on the graph will appear to follow if one were to look at it over the course of a lifetime. You know there will be ups and downs along the way so just accept it and understand that it will be a long, slow progress - there are no short cuts.

      This is, to me, the fundamental truth about poker - we can't see the bigger picture. Every time our bankroll falls, we are gloomy and depressed. Every time we are winning we think we are invincible and all the riches our heart's desire lie just around the corner...

      Maybe the next time I have a better than average run or a worse than average run, I'll remember to read what I wrote here and just realise that: results don't matter in the short term if you are making the right decisions in the long term.

      Anyway, no stats this time, because stats are results-orientated. And I'm completely over that. (Yeah, right.) ;)
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Nice text, Tim. I agree completely, we gotta learn to see the big picture. It's tough sometimes. It also helps to keep an eye on the progress of more experienced players who post lifetime graphs and the like, so we see that they went through similar situations. If you haven't read this one yet, I recommend it: Timothy's NL400 SH Party in the Stars (Lifetime graph ITT!)

      All the best.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Ok, played 3.5 hours today NL50 SSS. Total non-bonus profit: $2.50!! :rolleyes:

      However, total profit including bonus clearance is a very satisfactory $22.50, and I've decided it's silly not to count the bonus as money won in just the same way as money won on the table. After all, a stockbroker gets paid for doing his job - it's just that he makes extra if the shares go up (the poker equivalent of winning a hand)!

      Most importantly, I'm really finding I'm getting more stoical about the constant ups and downs and slow progress. My long post of yesterday may have actually sunk in a bit.

      Brief Stats:

      Current overall BR: $477.08 (PP $451.78; FT $25.30)
      Ring Games winrate for June (SSS NL50): ~4BB/100


      p.s. Thanks for the link, Dandycal. I can't imagine the self control it takes to deal with a BR downswings of -$2,500. But one day, I'd like to find out :f_biggrin:
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      I continue to be frustrated by my inability to cope with downswings. A scale of misery applies here. It goes something like this...

      Session loss followed by Tim64's likely reaction:

      1-3 Buyins

      "No problems; I got my money in good, lost a few flips etc. Nothing to worry about - should be back on track tomorrow."

      3-5 Buyins

      "Well this is actually pretty annoying. I'm getting really unlucky at the moment. Still, I think my decisions are ok, so I just need to stay positive and things will come right."

      5-10 Buyins

      "Oh sh*t, man, I can't believe this! How many times are my Aces gonna get cracked today, exactly? Might as well just push all-in with 7,2o and be done with it. No, now come on - stop being silly; let's run these hands through Equilator... Ok, so you were the favourite overall - you're just running bad. No need to panic just yet."

      20+ Buyins

      "F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k!!! What the h*ll is going on!?!? Equilator says I should be $100 up, so why am I $200 down instead, huh? Jeeeze, I must just be cursed. Yeah, that's it. I'm cursed. One more day of this and I'm giving up Poker for good."

      So 20 Buyins seems to be about my limit for maintaining any sort of equilibrium about things. Checking hands out with Equilator does help a bit, though. I am able to take some comfort in knowing that probability was on my side - even if the cards weren't. I just wish there were a program to do this automatically... It takes me ages with Excel. Today's results were illuminating:

      This morning, I ran at 24% of pots while expectation was 41% for a loss of $24.
      This evening, the reverse: I won 82% of pots instead of the 47% I should have won, for a profit of $67.

      Twice my AQ beat villain's AK, and you start to realise: "this is the flipside of what was happening to me yesterday - that 20BI loss is someone else's unexpected upswing and now it's my turn. I just wish this was a less swingy game. Maybe I should stop playing SSS, then? :f_eek:

      Stats:

      Current overall BR: $476.32 (Titan $442.65; FT $32.00; Party $1.67)
      Ring Games winrate for June (SSS NL50): -1.8BB/100 from ~12,000 hands
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Yeah, -20BI also get to me..

      Holdem Manager could help you a lot with the EV calculation, as it has that feature automatically. It does make a difference to see that at least your EV line is positive during a downswing.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Originally posted by Tim64
      I just wish this was a less swingy game. Maybe I should stop playing SSS, then? :f_eek:

      Ahh, if its a less swingy game you want, best do away with any variant of Poker. Yes??
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Let me assure you mate, BSS doesnt really come that much less swingy than SSS... cracks cost you 5 buyins at a time, after all ;)

      Very nice blog, glad you linked it in your sig now. Or if you already had it in your sig, glad I noticed it. Kudos for stepping away from the huge money, high stress career path. Alot of people talk the "happiness > money" talk but very, very few (and being honest, im in the talk group still) have the courage to take a walk.

      Up for a prop bet on the ashes? ;)