*Originally posted by Jackalof*

If you play solid poker - it will always be below AI EV. Start chasing gutshots, backdoor flushdraws - one day you'll get lucky and be above AI EV

I would like to know on what you are founding this assertion.

If EV is indeed only your results multiplied by your actual winning probability this should not be in any case.

The only reason i would think E.V. can give a wrong idea of how much you should be winning is if somehow the statistic calculated doesn't reflect your real winning probability.

e.g. Say KK has a preflop probability of ~80% chance of winning vs one opponent but if your actual opponent will only bet with AA you are pretty much at a ~0% winning chance with KK at least when the pot get bigger than the blinds...

So the problem with E.V. could be that it dosen't take into account the statistic of what your hands will be facing and just take a raw theorical statistic.

Implying that the higher is your hand the higher the pot goes and the tigher the opposition get, which would explain the general thread about people running under E.V. most of the time.

If you Add on top of it the Variance and eventually a LAG style that could take most of his winning out of non showdown hands you could end up with an E.V. which doesn't make much sens indeed.