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130k Hands, 2.000$ Behind EV (NL 25/50)

    • Zervin311
      Zervin311
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 90
      At first I thought it might be variance, but I have later realized that every single freaking time I have my money in the middle with over 80%, I lose. Every time without fail, I get sucked out on the turn or river for massive amounts.

      Now, this is pretty significant as I only play NL25, NL50 and a couple NL100. 2.000$ behind EV over 130k hands is a pretty ridiculous amount. Does anyone have any matching results or am I really the unluckiest person alive?

      I've always thought lucky people have been a load of bullshit, but it seems that some people just win no matter where they put their money in. Opinions?

      I'd post my graphs, but can't get filefront working so..
  • 9 replies
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      320k hands, $3.5k under EV FTW! :evil:


    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      Its mixed € and $ - with the really bad results being in €

      So essentially also 2k$ under EV - only 30k hands though :o

    • thebigheizung85
      thebigheizung85
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2006 Posts: 195
      i am sorry i actually don't even get how the All-in EV is calculated but how can it be that everyone is running below All-in EV... are there any players here who run above that line? would be interesting to see that (at least once)
    • bernie0303
      bernie0303
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.09.2008 Posts: 3,513
      Original von SPlayer18
      german highroller.
      @mods: he postet his graph, so i think its ok to copy it. if not, just delete it.


      € @ heizung:
    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,349
      Originally posted by thebigheizung85
      i am sorry i actually don't even get how the All-in EV is calculated but how can it be that everyone is running below All-in EV... are there any players here who run above that line? would be interesting to see that (at least once)
      I suck, but I'm a luckbox :f_biggrin:

    • Zervin311
      Zervin311
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 90
      Let's say you got all in with AA vs 10 10

      Your chance of winning is 80%, and the pot includes 10$ from each player, + 0.25 and 0.50 in the blinds.

      Your EV will therefore be 80% of 20.75$ (Minus rake but screw that for now)

      The average result would be 16.6$, meaning you earn 6.6$.

      Should you lose this hand however, you will be earning -10$, leaving you 16.6$ behind EV.

      Should you win it you will be running 4.15$ above EV.
    • Zervin311
      Zervin311
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 90
      Some software like for example poker tracker however don't track EV for all streets, so lets say you raise it up with aces to 2$, and a guy with Q3 suited calls leaving 0.10 cents behind and flops a flush, poker tracker will interpret this as EV = close to zero, rather than taking the preflop odds of winning for the 2$ and then close to 0% on the remaining 10 cents. So take caution when reading these EV graphs.
    • poger8
      poger8
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      Yes, comparing to these graphs my lost 11 in-a-row sessions and -$210 seem like kid's play. But I may still improve :(

      Seriously, poker is a quite a lottery. If you're unlucky - that's it.
    • RockEye
      RockEye
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2008 Posts: 416
      I am a luckbox then too