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how long is it possible to continue running under ev?

    • nafar84
      nafar84
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2008 Posts: 546
      @Jackalof: When you get it in as a favourite and win, you are still actually running above EV. Say for example you win with Aces when you're 80% favourite... you have won 100% of a pot in which you only have 80% equity, so you are above EV.

      So imo it's wrong to say that you only run above EV if you suck out on people. Any time you win a pot in which you have less than 100% equity, you are running above EV.
    • Jackalof
      Jackalof
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 1,462
      Thanx for input, Fongie and nafar84, it really made some things clear to me :)

      I guess I can't base my whining on all-in EV line from now on :f_cry:
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      You could still have had horrible bad beats and your ev line not showing it. For example when its AA vs KK, you slowplay it and a King comes on the river. you have a 95% to win on the turn if im correct. But because you put your money in when you were behind the EV and Winnings line will go down equally.


      If EV line And winnings are alot different then that means you get all your money in alot before the river right?
    • Chippolata
      Chippolata
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2009 Posts: 51
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      If EV line And winnings are alot different then that means you get all your money in alot before the river right?
      As i understand it, E.V. is based on your chance of winning when you go all-in.

      Hence, at river it is either win, lose or split pot therefore your EV line should match your winning line if you were only going all in at the river.

      But if indeed most of your all-in happen preflop, your winning line should most likely be dancing up and down your EV line...

      Whether EV doesn't work like it, either this is what should happen.
    • kingdippy2008
      kingdippy2008
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 2,107
      Originally posted by Fongie
      Originally posted by Jackalof
      Correct me if I'm wrong.
      Wrong :f_p:

      Two simple reasons..
      - It doesnt care for coolers
      - It doesnt care when youre on the river with money still to play for

      My advice is that if you're playing with a big stack, don't look at the ev line ever. It's just never going to be accurate, because variance is bigger than most people imagine - different board textures, different opponents, flop turn and river play, hand ranges (running into top or bottom of a persons hand range) and so on... Simply, not many hands are alike if they go beyond the flop. And to get an accurate sample of, for example, different river situations, you're going to have to... well, I don't know how :f_p:

      If you're shortstacking however I can see that you could look at it in a large sample, because most of your play is preflop and on the flop.
      +1!!!
    • Chippolata
      Chippolata
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2009 Posts: 51
      Originally posted by Fongie
      My advice is that if you're playing with a big stack, don't look at the ev line ever. It's just never going to be accurate, because variance is bigger than most people imagine - different board textures, different opponents, flop turn and river play, hand ranges (running into top or bottom of a persons hand range) and so on... Simply, not many hands are alike if they go beyond the flop. And to get an accurate sample of, for example, different river situations, you're going to have to... well, I don't know how :f_p:
      I am sorry but i don't understand something.

      AI EV line, as long as you are not going all in at some point before the river is actually nothing more than the winning line, am i right ?

      The only moment it may strive from the winning line is then when you are all in before the river.

      The direction of the evline is extacly the same as the winning line only scaled by the equity, am i correct ?

      I.E. with an all in where you can win say $15 or lose $10 and your chances are 30% win 68% loss 2% split (real chances while knowing all the cards):

      - If you win the AI EV line would go up by 30% of the $15 you won.
      - If you lose it would then go down by 68% of the $10 you lost.

      If it actually works like that, the winning line should dance in a maximum range of about 5 time the square root of the number of all in hands time the size of the average pot in those hands. someone please check my maths but i think this is correct.

      Originally posted by Fongie
      If you're shortstacking however I can see that you could look at it in a large sample, because most of your play is preflop and on the flop.
      What would be a descent sample size to look at ?

      Could someone here nicely post a graphic with AI EV line on a large sample playing SSS (like 250k+ hands) ?
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,145
      omg have you even thought about what you mean by 'running under EV'?? you think because, e.g. you ran badly for 500 hands, you will magically run well over the rest of your career until you have won back what you lost in those 500 hanmds?
    • FilipeAR
      FilipeAR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.11.2009 Posts: 43
      what software you guys use to calculate ALL in ev?

      Is it possible to do in pokerstrategy elephant?
    • JuiceQuadre
      JuiceQuadre
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.10.2008 Posts: 2,688
      Originally posted by FilipeAR
      what software you guys use to calculate ALL in ev?

      Is it possible to do in pokerstrategy elephant?
      No its not =) .. Pokertracker or Holdem manager do the job =)
    • FilipeAR
      FilipeAR
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.11.2009 Posts: 43
      Thank you JuiceQuadre for the reply :)
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