This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

Liar Dice - SnGs & PLO

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Apologies - graph now added. Coh! So forgetfull...
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      haha tim I like you as a sweat partner, i dont think you can get rid of me that easily.

      sick SWONGS at the 33s :(

      are you still going to persevere with the 33s for now? or are you moving down to join me at the 22s?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Perseverence is the key. That's all there is in Poker.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      I look at that strange land that lies beneath the $Zero line on the Holdem Manager graph as a kind of underworld, populated by the ghosts of all those bad beats. A -EV darkness where hairless colour-bled creatures, their mouths crammed with razor-sharp teeth, roam in search of otherwise winning poker players who have lost their way below the sunlit surface.

      It's cold down here and I feel all alone. And I'd quite like to come out now, if it's all the same to you.

      Running over 20 BI below EV at the $33+3 Turbo SnGs has a powerful negative psycological effect. It's not that I didn't expect to have to go through such times on the journey on which I set out. And I know I'll have to go through it again and again in the future, for as long as I travel this poker road. But still it hurts. All my great calls sneered at by the poker gods as my opponent's dominated Ace pairs its other hole card on the river one... more...time...

      Ho hum. I take some comfort in the all important red line. I'm over $750 down on where I should be at this limit, but at least it appears the limit is beatable in theory. My EV ROI is still only 3.6% after 240 trnys but that's close enough to $10/hr for me not to be too blue about things.

      I'm trying to increase the volume a little - aiming for 4 sets a day - and building in an hour for study as well. So, when the cards start falling my way again, I should be in the right place. Touch wood.

      $2274.44
    • Schris7
      Schris7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2007 Posts: 730
      tim64 have u ever tried to play the 6h turbo sngs ever and if yes do u mind sharing your thoughts about the players vs 9handed ? :)

      about the ev line at sngs from hem have u found how they calculate it cause i believe for sngs it doesnt work well as the cash ev line does
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Hi Schris7,

      Nope - never played any 6 handed SnGs. From what I hear they're much more difficult (same as SH cash games, I imagine).

      I don't know how the red line works but I found this quote on 2+2 by someone called Lurr (to give him the credit due):

      "There seems to be a huge amount of negativity towards the HEM SNG EV line, and i have no idea why. Im much happier to see an EV line of 12% and an actual winnings of 8% than the other way around, because it is calculating how much equity you gain from SNG all in situations using ICM which as any good player knows is the maths we use to beat SNGs.

      This actually has more use in SNGs than it does in cash games as cash games expose the EV line flaw much more often in that it only calculates your EV when you go all in, not your EV from previous betting rounds where u may be a huge favorite. This does happen in SNGs as well however a vast majority of SNG all ins occur preflop in the late game, and since so many SNG all ins are 50/50, 60/40 and 70/30 its very easy to have huge swings up or down and this makes it difficult to gauge an accurate ROI unless you have stats for 10k games+. The HEM EV line will give you a far better estimation of ROI a lot sooner so this surely had to be a good thing.

      A final word on the above example is that you dont just inherit a big stack. When the SNG starts you all have the same equity so if players have been eliminated and stack sizes have changed then players have gained and lost EV to get to the point of the game you refer to. So i dont for one minute know why people have such blatant disregard for something that gives you a much more accurate way of looking at your SNG success as apposed to you actual winnings graph which will expose the HUGE SNG variance and give u a far more distorted reading of short term success or failure."

      hope it helps
      Tim
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Yikes :rolleyes:



      By the way, does anyone know how to tell HEM to give details on the graph of $/Trny?

      Thanks...
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      tim im worried if you are playing the 33s with 70BIs. in my opinion a few sets of 22s with positive results would do wonders for your confidence.

      HEM doesnt have a display of $/T but its easily achieved by dividing total winnings by number of tourneys in the same period.

      also just times your ROI by the BI including rake.

      neither of these take into account rakeback.

      hope to talk strategy in the next few days on skype :)
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Hi <3,

      Thanks for your concern, champ :P Actually my confidence is pretty high atm. I'm really only concerned with whether I'm playing profitably in principle. If so, I know the profit will come. I just have to be patient. The execution of the plan is the key - not how long it takes to fulfill.

      I have no problem with suckouts and bad beats. The only thing that worries me is not knowing whether I will be able to make a decent return (once the suckouts and bad beats have evened themselves out). The all important red line says I have a +ve ROI and for me, that's enough.

      I'm psycologically comfortable with my BR and that's the only thing that matters - that and a willingness to move down if things go really horribly.

      Speak soon,

      Tim
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      December was the first month in the last four when I didn't make any real profit. Indeed it would have been a substantial loss were it not for a late rally and some rakeback.

      Which leads me to a truth about poker which I always knew but needed practical experience of. Even if we have a solid winrate at whatever game we play, that winrate will manifest itself in periods of breakevenness, lower-than-average winnings, or even loss. As such, it's not the way to make a living if you absolutely have to have $X each and every month or you run out of food or get your electricity cut off.

      It might be a reasonable way to make a living if you were already financially independent or if poker is Job B and you already have Job A which pays the bills. Of course, if you get off to a very good start and put aside enough for a few months then you have a chance; but that's by no means easy and takes a lot of discipline. And I think this is one of the reasons why it is so hard to make a living from poker. Consider this conundrum:

      a). If you start off in poker with the expectation of, and do, use some of your winnings towards bills/other expenditure, rather than towards bankroll development, it is very difficult to build a bankroll which is sufficient to let you play at limits where, given sufficient skill, you can make a good living; and

      b). If you have a main job and just play poker in your spare time, it's very hard to play enough - in terms of sheers hours - to build a bankroll sufficient to let you play at limits where, given sufficient skill, you can make a good living.

      And it's for a combination of these reasons that getting to the bankroll where I can play limits which might be sufficient to live off is still a quite a way away. Although I have some savings which stop me from having to worry about money too much, there are still bills to play and so my part-time job is a frustrating necessity. But it means, with family commitments, that there is only a certain amount of playing time each month. So, the slow grind continues...

      At least there is the consolation that the longer it takes to get the necessary BR, the more experience I get and the more feasible the ultimate goal should become.

      I have a theory about 'variance' that I have come up with (actually, I didn't come up with it at all; I'm just thinking of adopting it). Here it is: "There's no such thing as variance. There is only probability." I'm not going to explain that - I'm just putting it out there. :D

      I've just started Phil Gordon's Little Green Book and he says something which I think we all know to be true but actually find it hard to keep at the forefront of our minds when we are losing hands we are, probabilistically speaking, expected to win. And especially when the loss of those hands is causing us to lose our hard-won profit. It's this:

      "All I can do is get my money in the pot with the best hand. No matter how hard I try, I can't control the cards after the money is in the pot... It does me no good whatsoever to fret about losing a pot if I got my money into the pot with the best hand."

      If we extend this concept to SnGs, the variant of poker I'm playing at the moment, we get this: "All I can do is make positive expectation pushes and positive expectation calls. If I push into dominating Aces, or monster pairs seemingly every hand for a month and if every time the small blind pushes into me when I have KJs and have an easy call according to ICM, he's pushing QQ+, it does me no good to fret about it. All I can do is keep on pushing, keep on calling. Keep on getting my money in good.

      Some goals for this month:
      1. Play at least 500 $33+3 Turbo SnGs;
      2. Maintain or do better than 6% ROI over this limit;
      3. Watch the remaining 8 $33 SnG videos available for my rank and below (i.e. 2 per week) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]complete;
      4. Post at least 5 hands per week with post flop play. While I'm reasonably happy with my push/fold game (or at least I think I have the tools to improve that element), I think I'm often too passive and cautious post flop, particularly in HU freeplays, and need to see what additional plays are available; and
      5. Improve my steal range and postflop play in steal situations.

      That's all for now. Thanks for reading. Below the stats is my $33+3 graph so far...

      BR: $2793.60
      % increase in BR: 2.2%
      ROI @ $33+3s: 0.1% after 323 tourneys
      EV ROI @ $33+3s: 5.3%

    • 8979687
      8979687
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      Originally posted by Tim64

      "All I can do is get my money in the pot with the best hand. No matter how hard I try, I can't control the cards after the money is in the pot... It does me no good whatsoever to fret about losing a pot if I got my money into the pot with the best hand."

      If we extend this concept to SnGs, the variant of poker I'm playing at the moment, we get this: "All I can do is make positive expectation pushes and positive expectation calls. If I push into dominating Aces, or monster pairs seemingly every hand for a month and if every time the small blind pushes into me when I have KJs and have an easy call according to ICM, he's pushing QQ+, it does me no good to fret about it. All I can do is keep on pushing, keep on calling. Keep on getting my money in good.

      Some very solid stuff here.

      I am truly going through this phase right now where it feels like every time I shove from button or sb its into
      AT, or A9. and if I have AT+ its into 99+ and when I am calling its against monsters. This has been going on for
      several hundred games. Then when I make it heads up, its the same outcome over and over. If I shove an ace
      he calls with a better ace, and usually in the most annoying way, I shove A8 he calls with A9 et al.

      BUT this isn't a complaint or rant in your blog just backing up that information because what keeps me from
      going bat shit crazy is the review in the wizard, and seeing those shoves are right. Even the obvious ones.

      It is soo dam tempting to stop shoving, and wait for only unbeatable hands but obviously you would be
      blinded out and lose even more games doing this, and of course you will no longer be getting your money
      in good by making +ev pushes etc, you would be making -ev folds.

      The other thing I would like to add, sorry for the long post in your blog im a criminal in that manner...

      But are you sure it is a good idea to set yourself an ROI goal?

      It condradicts what you wrote about not worrying about the results because you are getting your money in good.

      I totally agree on volume goals if you are sure you have the time to achieve them. Otherwise its big time stress
      trying to make sure you squeeze in those games on a day you got busy with other things. Iron man is evil
      for this very reason. It is poison to be playing even 10 or so SNGS in a session you have no real want to be
      playing but you have to for a goal.

      But if you have piles of time, and you set a volume goal that is well within easy reach for yourself,
      then you can know for sure what your expected income from rakeback will be regardless of how
      you run in your games.

      Nice to see you came back from the drop though, hope it keeps up for you.

      P.S. I am starting the point grinding tommorow I think so I will post in your other blog how it went.
    • Gonzo394
      Gonzo394
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 2,181
      Hi Tim,

      though you turned your back to my favourite poker variant, i'm still reading your posts here.

      Some interesting and very profound thoughts in your last update, some of them took me about one and a half years to discover them myself.

      But one thing i cannot tolerate standing uncommented:

      Originally posted by Tim64
      "There's no such thing as variance. There is only probability."
      variance is a mathematical construct. much like probability. in fact: 'variance', as a mathematical construct, is a very immidiate consequence of probability.
      that's because with probability comes expectation and with expectation comes expected deviation from expectation, which is variance by definition.
      So 'variance' is not less 'real' than probability.

      Excuse me for playing Mr. Know-It-All, but i had to tell you this, even if "judex non calculat"; since i didn't want you to further nourish some common misbeliefs about 'variance' which are out there ;) .
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      @8979687:
      Well the confusion is my own fault@. To clarify, when I set the target of 6% ROI over this limit, I was only talking about EV ROI (i.e. the 'red line' we have all been discussing so much recently); so even if I am getting lots of bad beats, it shouldn't prevent this being achievable.

      Of course, if I am running into AA all the time my red line will drop too.

      So I guess what I am really saying is that, over the course of playing the $33s, I would like to attain an average ROI of 6%. I won't mind too much if the next 500 tourneys are not at 6%, but I want to aim for this over my 'lifetime' at this limit. And I don't think this is too unrealistic. At least, if I am falling a long way short of this it will spur me on to improving my game.

      @Gonzo394, first thanks for following - I still drop in on the SSS forum from time to time. Second, I understand why you take exception to the claim: "there is no such thing as variance". My mathematics isn't good enough to back up the claim, and I wouldn't seek to. In fact, the more I think about it, the more I suspect I simply confused 'variance' with 'downswing' as the phenomenon about whose existence we can argue.

      I think what I really meant was just that, in line with Phil Gordon's words, there is no benefit to be gained by worrying about the outcome of a hand, so long as we made the right decision. And to some extent the same is true of variance. It may provide some comfort to think, at any given time, that we are a victim of variance. But in reality there is only the decision we made and the probability of that decision being profitable. And even if we make that correct decision ten times in a row and lose every time it's still only probability at work. We need to think about probability when we make poker decisions; I'm less sure that we need to think about variance.

      edit: I'll happily conceed variance is relevant to bankroll considerations.
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      Hey tim,

      Nice blog! I think it's the first time I see it, havent visited this part of the forum for quity a while :)

      I think you have all the tools to make it as a SNG player (or poker player in general), don't worry about the green line only the red line matters :D

      When reading your monthly goals I remembered a great thread I read today on the 2+2 archives about postflop play in mid-game, enjoy:
      http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=10316532&page=0&fpart=all

      grt and good skill!
      viewer
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      fantastic quote tim. just keep getting the chips in good and you will succeed at SnGs.

      im looking forward to more reviews/sweats in the future and i hope i can make my way up there with the big boys like you :) .

      gl hf sir
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      hey viewer88,

      Thanks for the encouragement - every little helps (as Tesco say)!
      have sent you a friend request if you have a moment.

      will take a look at that thread and see what i can pick up...

      @<3 I think you could be playing my limits too - you just take a much more sensible position on BRM than me :) Another sweat would be good - let's see if you can give me some pointers while I do a set.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      I'm in that place again. You know, the one where everything you touch turns to shit.

      A couple of graphs will probably do most of the talking for me:
      Today
      (EV ROI 5.6%, $49.93; Actual ROI -45.4%, -$402.90)

      [img][IMG]https://img517.imageshack.us/img517/9606/today33.th.png[/IMG][/img]

      $33+3 Tournaments so far
      (EV ROI 3.6%, $639.75; Actual ROI -3.6%, -$632.70 - gotta love the symmetry...)

      [img][IMG]https://img512.imageshack.us/img512/553/33s500trnys.th.png[/IMG][/img]

      No littany of bad beats for you; you've heared it all before. And I have to put this in the context of having run very well on the $22s, but this is, nevertheless, rather sucky.

      Psychologically, I'm ok. Not great, but ok. I have at least made one adjustment which makes this - somehow - bearable. I'm no longer checking my BR, and graphing it meticulously on Excell, every day. Once a week will suffice, I think. The daily reminder of just how badly one is running is actually worse than the suckouts themselves. I have enough $ to keep playing and I guess that's all that really matters.

      I have to think of times like these as some kind of test, as otherwise why would any sane person continue? As if I could give up now, even if I wanted to. So much time invested in this fool's errand of making money out of thin air. Too much time invested to quit; but still not quite enough for these swings to be as painless to me as the surgeon's incision is to the anaesthetised.

      On a more upbeat note, I'm still learning. Santa brought me Phil Gordon's Little Green and Blue Books and Chen's Mathematics of Poker (which is explaining, with the use of equations that make my head hurt, just how mathematically inevitable is the variance that is riding my ass at the moment). Is that the 'variance' I was saying didn't exist a couple of posts ago? Yep, that's the one. Well, I'm sticking with my trust in the thin red line. Take me home, little red line, take me home - back to the good times.
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      Tim do you not use a hud?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Yep - HEM. What did I say that made you think I didn't ?(
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      The excel reference thats all