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[NL2-NL10] NL10 - QQ over AAxxx board x passive fish

    • Kaabr
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 91
      Hero (MP1): $10.30
      MP2: $17.54
      CO: $18.94
      BTN: $9.67
      SB: $10.00
      BB: $4.79
      UTG: $6.84
      UTG+1: $13.37
      UTG+2: $9.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP1 with Q :club: Q :diamond:
      UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 4 folds, BB calls $0.40, UTG calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.55) A :diamond: 3 :club: 8 :heart: (3 players)
      BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1, UTG folds

      Turn: ($3.55) 2 :heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($3.55) A :spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.05, BB raises to $3.29 all in, Hero calls $1.24

      BB 61/6 over 90 hands.

      Since he only checked/called all streets would thar river bet be +ev? Or should I check behind the river?
  • 2 replies
    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      I would check back river or bet smallish, less than 1/2 pot. I don't see many worse hands calling here, unless some 99-JJ, but I think he may bet river with them.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I like that you saw the potential valuebet in that spot against a passive player. Depending on just how passive he really is it's either a good valuebet or a slightly -ev bet, everything depends on just how often you think he can show up there with trips without having bet them earlier.

      I like to err on the side of valuebetting myself so I'd probably go ahead and do it, but I'd just shove with less than pot left. If he has Ax we're screwed anyway we won't bet/fold there for any amount, if he has a worse hand than us I doubt the $1.2 extra will make a difference, either he'll believe us or he'll think we're full of shit. It looks somewhat thin and in a sense it is, but as long as you think it's profitable you should just do it and not mind it too much when a passive players really does show Ax, it was always a possibility.

      Hope it helps.