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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 - middle set vs sick pot odds

    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($50)
      BB ($62.45)
      UTG ($53.20)
      UTG+1 ($57)
      CO ($27.80)
      BTN ($52.45)

      Dealt to Hero T:diamond: T:heart:

      UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.25, fold

      FLOP ($3.50) 3:club: K:diamond: T:club:

      Hero checks, UTG bets $2, Hero raises to $6.50, UTG calls $4.50

      TURN ($16.50) 3:club: K:diamond: T:club: 7:spade:

      Hero bets $12, UTG calls $12

      RIVER ($40.50) 3:club: K:diamond: T:club: 7:spade: 4:club:

      Hero bets $10, UTG raises to $33.20 (AI), Hero folds

      UTG wins $57.60

      Villain - 20/10/1.7AF

      I think he'd valueshove all his TPTK+ hands on the turn, so he basically always has a flush there, but when I stoved this hand ...

      It's pretty sick = if I give him Kx :club: / Ax :club: AND all suited QJ, so he'll have only 3 combos of QJs bluffs that missed, all else hit the nuts ...

      And just those 3 combos give me 37% equity and I get 20% pot odds on that river and it's not unfathomable for him to be shoving those 3 combos of missed QJ since I made it more than clear that I do not have the flush.

      So I was pretty amazed at the equity vs pot odds I get on that river that I shouldn't never ever play the river like that?!

      OOOR am I just overthinking again for these stakes and he just always has the flush there and I should fold regardless of sick pot odds?

  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you can´t really b/f river since pot is already too big and imo his range can be worse hands, like lower sets and sometimes QJ, two pair
      Since he would likely call me down with KQ/AK/AA, I´d b/c 20$ on the river