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Liar Dice - SnGs & PLO

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Is it sad of me to be excited that Table Ninja has just been released for Party?
    • THESHade
      THESHade
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      Rly? Sucks I am not home
    • THESHade
      THESHade
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      Duuuude?, U r Diamond? WTF?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Originally posted by THESHade
      Duuuude?, U r Diamond? WTF?
      Thanks to PS.com post Zero Hour points bonus, yes.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Wow, sick graph man :( Oh well, you seem to have a solid mindset so you just got to keep grinding it out and the results will come. But you knew that already of course, which sort of makes my post useless :)
    • BOBOsvk
      BOBOsvk
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 2,505
      jb would say: "heater between games 550 and 600."
    • PetChoveka
      PetChoveka
      Black
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 5,751
      Congrats for the Diamond. Hope u run better next month
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      After a bit of a rally towards the second part of the month, July ended with a brutal final day to push me back down to a pathetic $700 profit, excluding deferred rake back.



      STT Tournaments: 956
      Average buyin: $20.27
      ROI -0.7%
      EV Roi 4.3%
      Cash: -$122.40
      SnGs: -$98
      EV Profit @ STTs: $837.52
      Estimated points-based rake back: $525
      Additional rake back from promotions: $420 (total $945)
      PS.com first aid: $250

      Total Profit: $1200.95
      Total EV profit (estimated): $2167.47
      Hours played: 143.53
      $/Hr: 8.37
      EV $/Hr: $15.10/hr

      Ended 43.4BI below EV. The competition for free coaching/sweating will obviously continue for a while!

      Managed just shy of 1000 games last month, together with around 20 hours of cash games at Titan (coincidently running about 3BI below EV). Volume could have been better but the return of endless mouse clicking brought with it fresh aches and pains and, furthermore, game selecting is much harder against an average field of 15,000 opponents compared with 40-50,000 on Tilt.

      Of course running so badly sucks like nobody's business and it's particularly annoying given the fact that June's profits and most of my bankroll was already wiped out. The whole point of working on red line profit was that running well in previous months should have a smoothing effect on later months' runbad. But if the red line profit has gone walkabouts (i.e. under the lock and key of Alderney's gaming police) it's not much good for anything.

      Nevertheless, we have to look at the red line numbers and they are not too bad. Ignoring (for convenience) the effects of Zero Hour, July is now my fifth consecutive month of profit. Averaged over those five months the total profit is a little over $2000/pcm. While that's not earth shattering, it is enough to live on (albeit frugally) and much better than I was expecting after the first six months of being a pro.

      Some reinvestment is therefore called for: this morning I downloaded TableNinja for Party on trial (the bet sizing doesn't seem to work, for starters) and ordered a new 28 inch monitor to replace the two 17 inch dinosaurs whose pictures engendered such ridicule on this site!

      There's no doubt that the combined effect of Black Friday and Zero Hour have seriously impacted on the profitability of poker as a way of life. Grinding up from the lower limits will take longer and longer for new players and the Darwinian effect of natural selection takes place at lower and lower stakes. It's hard to imagine this changing (improving) without full legalisation in the US market which, in my opinion, is years rather than months away.

      So, there are lean times ahead. Actually one could see the poker economy as a kind of microcosm of the world economy. "Austerity measures" are the new buzzwords to describe the changes in lifestyle of citizens and nations alike. But however austere, the vast majority of us are very much more affluent in real terms than people were in prewar years. It's a fact that is too easily forgotten by those who have been forced to tighten their belts.

      I think that's enough rambling for now. Here's to the grind, for now more than ever it lives up to its name.
    • Schris7
      Schris7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2007 Posts: 730
      cgs for diamond ! its nice to have a bad run in sngs and still be up 1k+ :D
    • MathhNes
      MathhNes
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2009 Posts: 953
      Hey Tim, Good to see you still doing fine (EV wise - aswell as a somewhat decent month including rakeback) after black friday especially due to the fact that it must be very hard for u mentally to play poker with all the pressure from FTP. GL this month, really like to follow ur progress, as always =)
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      is the contest over tim? pls tell me ive won. :f_biggrin:
      i would really like to partake of your wisdom.
    • Demonic226
      Demonic226
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2010 Posts: 1,461
      Still a decent month, too bad for the variance but you know how that game works ;) Solid thoughts about the future as well, one I share and fear a little.

      The 125 hours you played is that in or excluding study/review time?
    • THESHade
      THESHade
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      So wadup w u and world domination?
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,561
      Originally posted by purplefizz
      is the contest over tim? pls tell me ive won. :f_biggrin:
      i would really like to partake of your wisdom.
      If you win with giggling to much give me some credit at least ;)

      :f_biggrin:
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Originally posted by purplefizz
      is the contest over tim? pls tell me ive won. :f_biggrin:
      i would really like to partake of your wisdom.
      tl; dnr?

      Ended 43.4BI below EV. The competition for free coaching/sweating will obviously continue for a while!


      ;)
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      Originally posted by THESHade
      So wadup w u and world domination?
      $350 for 2 countries. $31 for assorted cities. Bunch of crappy freerols and around $40 worth of PPs.
    • THESHade
      THESHade
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      and how much did u rake?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      and how much did u rake?


      $1750 approximately - so around an additional 25% R/b
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,029
      So last month I played a whole bunch of 6 max super turbos to keep my volume reasonable. Well, even though the sample size was kind of small (around 500 games), I'm pretty disappointed with running at -4%ROI EV. Only at the $11 games did I manage a positive EV win rate.

      Frankly, I don't think I need the variance that comes with such low edges (even assuming I could make it positive in the long run).

      Unfortunately volume at 6max games sucks on Party. That doesn't leave me with many options. Basically, move to Stars or open up my game selection. Gut instinct says that if I can't make a living at the number two poker site out there and I can't make a living. Period.

      Which leaves me with accepting that I will have to play FR SnGs as well. :( I shouldn't see this is any kind of defeat, since the changes in the poker economy are hardly my fault. But I must say I'm a little disappointed since I spent so much time working on my 6max game. As expected, the full ring games I've played so far have been even more infested than I remember them being, but what can you do?

      So far this month I am down a few bucks, and not feeling super confident about the future but at the moment it looks like I will be retaining my official status as "pro" for another six months or so. More on that after the 10th when I will have made it one year in this crazy business.
    • THESHade
      THESHade
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      Originally posted by Tim64
      and how much did u rake?


      $1750 approximately - so around an additional 25% R/b
      jelous ....:D luckboxen