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[NL2-NL10] NL2: T8s

    • kiromanAAKK
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,025
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($2.02)
      BB ($1.20)
      UTG ($0.57)
      UTG+1 ($2.48)
      UTG+2 ($2)
      CO ($2)
      BTN ($5.56)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: Q:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.08, BB calls $0.06

      FLOP ($0.16) 3:spade: 5:spade: 7:spade:

      [color=red]Hero bets $0.12, BB raises to $0.24, Hero?

      villian 28/20/2/0.0 H:41

      What if I shove the flop?

      EQ needed 38.6

      range for villain

      Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
      Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
      Board :: 3s 5s 7s
       Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi                     Range                        
         1       30.5     28.3     4.3      22+,A2s+,A2o+,KTs+,KTo+,QTs+,QTo+,JTs,JTo 
         2       69.5     67.4     4.3                         AsQh                   
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello kiromanAAKK,

      Why do you think villain has such a range which raises on flop? :) Most of the range which you put down is pretty much pointless. Do you think he would have KK/AA there? Or for example why should he raise with something like 22? Or A9 or whatsoever? He can't have the whole broadway range either.

      Equity needed here is ~42%. For example against some strong range like sets, some 7x pairs and made flushes we ain't getting that great equity:

      Board: 3:spade: 5:spade: 7:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    59.34%  58.92%   0.42% { 77, 55, 33, A7s, 87s, KsQs, JsTs, 9s8s, A7o, 87o }
      UTG+1  40.66%  40.25%   0.42% { AsQh }

      So I might be even towards just Calling and then reevaluating it on turn while he even gives us very good odds.

      But obviously, if we think he would even play overpairs this way then:

      Board: 3:spade: 5:spade: 7:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    54.83%  54.42%   0.40% { JJ-77, 55, 33, A7s, 87s, KsQs, JsTs, 9s8s, A7o, 87o }
      UTG+1  45.17%  44.77%   0.40% { AsQh }

      Our equity is good enough to go broke.

      Best Regards.