[NL2-NL10] 98s nl10sh

    • franeczek
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 2,439
      Boss $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1001145
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BTN): $13.57
      SB: $10.12
      BB: $5.85
      UTG: $8.67
      CO: $16.71

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 8 :club: 9 :club:
      1 fold, CO raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.85) A :spade: 8 :heart: 9 :diamond: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.63, Hero calls $0.63

      Turn: ($2.11) 2 :spade: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1.20, CO calls $1.20

      River: ($4.51) T :club: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, CO raises to $13.51, Hero folds

      villian is 23/21/48 (VPIP/PFR/AFR%) after 152 hands. We didn't have history before so no reads. Should I call the river there?? His range for doing this is extremly narrow AA 88 99 AT maybe I didn't know if he is capable to do it with AK.
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Wow this is really crappy without better reads.

      Frankly I'm having a hard time putting him on AK. Even if he somehow decided to check/call the turn because of the deep stacks, it's very unlikely he suddenly changed his mind and decided to value-jam 110bb on the river. I don't buy it.

      And regulars just don't spazz nearly as often as we'd like to think they do, at least not at nl10. He could have some busted spade draws but really I rarely see people make that big a bluff this way, if he's aggressive enough to attempt such a bluff he'll often just bomb the turn with his draws instead.

      If I had to take a few guesses, I'd say

      - he decided to check/raise the turn for value with a set when he realized he wouldn't be able to get the stacks in by just betting all the way, then thought you bet very small and would probably fold to a raise, so he changed his plans.

      - he pot-controlled the turn with AT and rivered two pairs.

      If you've been at nl10 a while and you have a comfortable bankroll, just call it off sometimes if you want to make sure, but really I think you're rarely ahead if you didn't previously have indication that this villain was very bluffy.

      Hope it helps.