[NL2-NL10] NL4 SH 33 set on drawy river

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      SB ($4.09)
      BB ($1)
      UTG ($3.73)
      CO ($7.09)
      Hero ($4)

      Dealt to Hero 3:heart: 3:spade:

      fold, CO raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.12, fold, BB calls $0.08

      FLOP ($0.38) 4:spade: 2:diamond: 5:heart:

      BB checks, CO bets $0.18, Hero calls $0.18, BB folds

      TURN ($0.74) 4:spade: 2:diamond: 5:heart: K:club:

      CO bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12

      RIVER ($0.98) 4:spade: 2:diamond: 5:heart: K:club: 3:diamond:

      CO checks, Hero bets $0.48, CO calls $0.48

      Villain is 36/11/3.7

      I still might get calls from Kx hands there so I bet river. How do you think?
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      with your equity I´d just raise flop and call shove
      There can be scare cards on the turn or if he has there random overcards he may still hit his hand
      about your river bet: problem is that every Ax hand would beat you and not really sure he´d call you down with any pair, so I think taking your free showdown is better
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      But strategy says different:
      Your strategy with a strong draw is similar to your strategy for an unraised pot. It's not worth being aggressive when your chances of winning are only between 25% and 45%. You do have a good opportunity, however, to win the pot in a later round and get even more money out of an opponent with a strong hand. If he has a hand like top pair or an overpair and your draw completes on the turn you can usually get him to invest at least one more time before he gives up his hand. You might even get his entire stack. These are all factors you have hopefully already read about in the article on implied pot odds.


      If I raise flop and he don't shove, I don't hit on the turn and he bets, then the pot is big and I have bad odds, less equity.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      But strategy says different:
      Your strategy with a strong draw is similar to your strategy for an unraised pot. It's not worth being aggressive when your chances of winning are only between 25% and 45%. You do have a good opportunity, however, to win the pot in a later round and get even more money out of an opponent with a strong hand. If he has a hand like top pair or an overpair and your draw completes on the turn you can usually get him to invest at least one more time before he gives up his hand. You might even get his entire stack. These are all factors you have hopefully already read about in the article on implied pot odds.


      If I raise flop and he don't shove, I don't hit on the turn and he bets, then the pot is big and I have bad odds, less equity.
      there are situations, where you never have fold equity and fro that spot it is best just call, but here it is standard raised pot and he is c-betting board that likely didn´t hit him. So really I don´t see any reason why just to call and give him free chance to hit his overcard and basically every card is bad from you expect A or 6.
      To show how 33 is doing against likely his whole c-bet range:
      board: 4s2d5h
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      33 65.94% 802,659 24,054
      22-AA, AT-AK, KT-KQ, QJ, JT 34.06% 408,807 24,054

      Then you see you have around 65% equity and you should raise for protection/value, not generally 25% and 45% as article says. If you get called then he isn´t really leading out turn but rather check to you and if you think he is not c/f there overpairs then checking back and trying to go to showdown is fine