Feasible to beat $0.05/$0.10 doing just this?

    • SimbaTheLion
      SimbaTheLion
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 16
      Hey :) I'm a NLHE/PLO player primarily, but I have some interest in limit poker, so I read the basic level articles here on PS for the fixed limit full ring stuff, and watched a couple of videos.

      I have a few questions, if anyone would be so kind as to answer:

      1) Is it really possible to beat $0.05/$0.10 just playing according to the SHC and the post-flop guide? I've played a bit and am losing following the SHC/post-flop guide word for word, am on -28BB/100, but small sample size. Would I need to read and learn all of the bronze articles also to beat $0.05/$0.10?

      2) What kind of winrate is achievable at the micro levels?

      3) What sample size do I need to be fairly conclusive (say, 90% confidence interval) of my winrate?

      Thank you very much, all help is appreciated :) .
  • 11 replies
    • One12ver
      One12ver
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2008 Posts: 249
      1. Yes.

      2. At such low limits you can very easily do 5BB+ in the short term.

      3. I would say at least 5k but best not to stay to long at low limits and move up when BR allows. At 10/20c you will start to run into some stronger players and at 25/50c is when you really can start to develop a good FL game. Starting at 25/50 I would then be more concerned with win rates,sample size ect.

      Good advice for a NL player moving to FL is too be a little less aggresive when in multi way pots because in FL players will normally have good odds to call down almost any pair or to chase draws which will become costly and fustrating trying to protect your pair or when bluffing.
    • Dawnfall26
      Dawnfall26
      Black
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 3,116
      Hi!

      1.Yes, PS teaches you to become a good TAG player which is very profitable for micro/low stakes.Sure not everything can be though just from vids/articles,you also have to play and anylise your own game(reviews/forums...)

      2.A very good player could probably achieve 5BB/100 + but noone really stays here that long:) But if you beat a limit with 1,5BB+(after a decent sample) thats already pretty good and you are probably ready for the next one

      3. 5k hands is nothing in holdem. For microlimits I would recommend at least 20k hands(sometimes it may still not be enough) and once you get on higher stakes even 100k may not be enough
    • SimbaTheLion
      SimbaTheLion
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 16
      Thanks very much for both of your replies :) , played my first 549 hands today and am running now at 6.63BB/100, obviously very small sample, but extremely pleased it's > 0 :D .

      Am unfortunately having to play on a site that I do not have linked to my PS account - the tables on Titan where my PS account is are pretty dead for limit hold'em, and I had already created accounts on Full Tilt and PokerStars before I came across PS. Kind of annoying, not sure what to do since I'd rather play linked to PS so that I can get silver and up; I think those articles/videos would be really useful for me.

      Is there any way to get my PokerStars account linked to PS do you know despite me already having made it a year or two ago?

      Thanks :) .
    • Dawnfall26
      Dawnfall26
      Black
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 3,116
      If you are not already tracked so some other affiliate I think its possible to get retracked on FT(dont know about PS)
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      There is no set number of hands after which your results suddenly become meaningful. They slowly come into focus, and you never have a perfect picture of your edge.

      In shorthanded games, a typical standard deviation might be 17 BB/100 hands. That means playing 100 hands is about as risky as taking a coin flip for 17 big bets. If you play n * 100 hands, the standard deviation of your total is about 17 * sqrt(n) BB/100, and the standard deviation of your win rate/100 is about 17 / sqrt(n) BB/100.

      If you have played at least a few hundred hands, a normal approximation is reasonable. This means a rough 95% confidence interval is your observed result +- 2 standard deviations.

      For example, after 5000 hands, n=50 so sqrt(n) ~ 7. Your 95% confidence interval for your win rate is about your observed win rate +- 2 * 17 / 7 BB/100, or your observed result +- 5 BB/100.

      In many games, you should be happy with a win rate of 2-3 BB/100. I'm not sure of the current state of micro limit games, but that's probably a good ballpark figure. If your true win rate is 3 BB/100, and your luck cancels so you actually do win 3 BB/100, then after 5000 hands you won't even be confident that you are a winning player. One approach is to play a lot more hands before you expect to get much information from your results alone. Another is to pay attention to more than just your results. However, it is hard to estimate your edge/disadvantage from how your opponents are playing when you are new to poker.
    • SimbaTheLion
      SimbaTheLion
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 16
      Thanks Dawn, I'll look into that :) .

      Pzhon: Oooh, what a wonderful explanation, I'm very mathematical in my nature so it's nice to see such a numerical approach to variance. What would be the numbers for the SDs given in BB/100 I could use for NLHE and PLO?
    • SimbaTheLion
      SimbaTheLion
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 16
      Ugh, is this likely explainable by variance or am I likely doing stuff wrong? Feeling kind of demotivated right now, seems my work has all been undone... Am following the SHC and post-flop guide religiously, but I'm getting owned :( ... I would expect variance like this to be much lower at micro stakes since my BB/100 would be higher than at higher stakes, but hmm... :\

      If it helps, my VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSD are 11.9/7.5/2.4/25.3.

    • cjheigl
      cjheigl
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 09.04.2006 Posts: 24,498
      Peak appears to be at 13,8 BB/100 at hand 1600 which comes down to 0,3 BB/100 at hand 3000. Yes, this is variance.

      From your stats i guess you play fit or fold. WTSD 25 is exceptionally low, even if it is FR Micro. Your other stats are ok. Preflop you are on the tight end, but this is due to the charts. Of course the sample size is not big. Your stats may vary after a couple 1000 more hands. I suggest you use the hand judge forums. Playing Overcards and Draws may be your weakness.
    • SimbaTheLion
      SimbaTheLion
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 16
      Alright, thanks for the advice, I'll look into improving my play in those areas :) .
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by SimbaTheLion
      What would be the numbers for the SDs given in BB/100 I could use for NLHE and PLO?
      Standard deviations in NLHE and PLO depend more on your playing style and also on your effective stack depth. In some 6-max NLHE games, 90 big blinds/100 might be a typical standard deviation, but some players would have a standard deviation of 65 big blinds/100 while others would have a standard deviation of 150 big blinds/100. Full ring games lead to lower standard deviations.

      I don't know the corresponding figures for PLO.
    • wasy8
      wasy8
      Black
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      Originally posted by Dawnfall26
      If you are not already tracked so some other affiliate I think its possible to get retracked on FT(dont know about PS)
      it is not possible to get retracked on either FT or PS. just wanted to clear that up