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CHOPPING... Lock it up Lock it up ?

    • cjchalmers
      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      Hey guys... Here's a scenario i was in earlier followed by a question.

      tournament: rush $4.40 135 man

      Blinds 5k/10k

      hero 185k~
      villain 85k~

      First place is $153.9... Second $97.2... ICM chop $136.7

      My opponent is very competent and has been making excellent plays consistently since the final 20.

      Lets say that i take this down 70 percent of the time in this scenario which may be too generous...

      so my EV of playing on is 0.7(153.9-136.7)-0.3(136.7-97.2)=12.04-11.85=+$0.19

      Now the question:

      Since this is showing only a marginal profit with an uncertain win rate of 70 percent...

      Locking this up for $136.7 is the correct thing to do ?

      n.b. i locked it up... then came here to analyze :f_cool:
  • 5 replies
    • TheRebuz
      Joined: 12.10.2008 Posts: 2,078
      did u get 136$?

      u made a good deal with those blinds imo
    • cjchalmers
      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      Yes i took the $136 :)

      Agreed... these blinds are a total crapshoot
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      The ICM agrees with the chip-chop heads-up.

      If you have 69% of the chips, do you really feel you can win 70% of the time with large blinds against someone making "excellent decisions?" If so, chopping gives up some money to lower your variance. This can be ok for bankroll management reasons.

      One rule you can apply quite generally is

      bankroll = comfort x variance / win rate


      comfort = bankroll x win rate / variance

      Your target comfort level depends on your risk tolerance and your ability and willingness to move down when you hit a down swing. A comfort level of 2 is aggressive, while a comfort level of 4 is conservative.

      You can determine the comfort level of a particular gamble. For example, suppose you play a $4.40 tournament in which you expect to win $1 and have a standard deviation of $20. Variance is the square of this, 400 (square dollars). If your bankroll is $1000, then your comfort level is

      comfort = 1000 x 1 / 400 = 2.5.

      If your target comfort level is above 2.5, you might still be able to play, but you would be happier selling some of your action. If your target comfort level is over twice the comfort level of a gamble, then you should treat the gamble as an expense.

      Let's apply this to chopping. The variance of playing out a heads-up situation is about what you can win ($153.90-136.70 = $17.20) times what you can lose ($136.70-$97.20 = $39.50), for a variance of about 679.4. If you would average a gain of $0.19 by playing it out, and you want a comfort level of 3, then the bankroll you need to prefer playing it out is

      bankroll = 3/2 x 679.4 / 0.19 = $5363.68.

      With more than this, you should play it out. With less, chop.
    • cjchalmers
      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      Thank you very much for a detailed reply pzhon...

      Originally posted by pzhon

      If you have 69% of the chips, do you really feel you can win 70% of the time with large blinds against someone making "excellent decisions?.
      ... I was making a rough estimate here, and did say this may be a bit too high...
      ... (lets be honest) because everybody thinks they are a little bit better than they really are...
      ... in the future i will use 0.95(chance of winning.)
      ... or even 0.9(chance of winning) if chance of winning>67.5%

      At the time i took the chop without any real analyzing as, "it didn't really feel worth the gamble." A rough instinct decision based loosely on blinds+opp.

      A comfort level of around 3 seems ideal for me, as i certainly don't use aggro BRM...

      Before taking the chop i believe my roll was at ~$530 so i am happy to have taken it.

      At the moment i can't really apply your equation as i only have a very small sample of these tourneys and am also on a sweet heater with unsustainable win rate.

      If you are interested here's the stats:
      Played : 38
      Investment : $167.20
      Prizes : $501.00
      Profit : $333.80
      ROI 199.6%....................... HOT HOT HOT :f_cool:

      Thank you again pzhon ... this has been most insightful and i will use this whenever possible.
    • chenny8888
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      if you think he's good at nash ranges then chop it up. if you think he's bad AND you're good at them, then play on.