Thank you very much for a detailed reply pzhon...

*Originally posted by pzhon*

If you have 69% of the chips, do you really feel you can win 70% of the time with large blinds against someone making "excellent decisions?.

... I was making a rough estimate here, and did say this may be a bit too high...

... (lets be honest) because everybody thinks they are a little bit better than they really are...

... in the future i will use 0.95(chance of winning.)

... or even 0.9(chance of winning) if chance of winning>67.5%

At the time i took the chop without any real analyzing as, "it didn't really feel worth the gamble." A rough instinct decision based loosely on blinds+opp.

A comfort level of around 3 seems ideal for me, as i certainly don't use aggro BRM...

Before taking the chop i believe my roll was at ~$530 so i am happy to have taken it.

At the moment i can't really apply your equation as i only have a very small sample of these tourneys and am also on a sweet heater with unsustainable win rate.

If you are interested here's the stats:

Played : 38
Investment : $167.20
Prizes : $501.00
Profit : $333.80
ROI 199.6%.......................

HOT HOT HOT
Thank you again pzhon ... this has been most insightful and i will use this whenever possible.