[NL20-NL50] right decision?

    • clawindsouza
      Joined: 08.12.2009 Posts: 7,085
      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      CO = ($24.65)
      BU (Hero) = ($24.73)
      SB = ($25.10)
      BB = ($21.37)
      UTG2 = ($10.77)
      MP1 = ($29.27)
      MP2 = ($30.24)
      MP3 = ($31.50)

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 9 :diamond: , 8 :diamond: .
      3 folds, MP3 raises to $1.00, CO folds, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($2.35) 7 :heart: , 6 :spade: , 9 :club:( 2 players)
      MP3 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.00, MP3 raises to $30.50, Hero calls $19.73(All-In).

      Turn: ($56.58) J :club: (2 players)

      River: ($56.58) 8 :heart: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $56.58.

      i did win this hand but i wanted to know if its +EV to push here...

      btw he had aces :D
  • 2 replies
    • Mstlc
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 4,676
      It's close but you need like 39.61% equity to make a 0EV call. Against a 99+, 77-66 range you've got 39.58% equity. And then you still have to bring rake into account so calling is definitely -EV.

      Personally I prefer just calling this flop, you've flopped a good hand and you're getting good odds to draw for your straight/trips or two pair is probably good to. If you raise here he's probably gonna shove overpairs and sets on you and fold out all his air type hands like AK, AQ etc.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Against aces you have 46& equity, so yes raising flop and calling shove is fine

      board: 7h6s9c
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      9d8d 45.86% 2,652 144
      AA 54.14% 3,144 144

      Only reason not to raise flop is if you think you don´t have any fold equity which on that standard bet size I won´t really think is the case or if you think his range bet/shoving there is mostly sets/straights

      But since he mostly has there air I´d also raise flop and if get called then check back turn and try to improve on the river. if he 3-bets or shove I have to call, since he can do that with overpairs or maybe even 88