Push Or Fold Stage Questions

    • Wohmfg
      Wohmfg
      Silver
      Joined: 12.11.2009 Posts: 500
      Hey guys, I've got a few questions about the push or fold stage of sit and goes at $1-3 stakes.

      1) What do I do if someone limps in before me? Right now I'll still push if I feel they can fold as they haven't committed too much of their stack by limping, say at least a quarter. And sometimes I'll avoid pushing because they have me covered by a massive amount.

      2) How heavily does VPIP affect my push range? In the ICM trainer which I've been practising with a lot recently, it seems that stack size is the primary factor in the push or fold stage.

      3) Is there any way to accurately estimate someone's calling range from their VPIP, or is it mainly through seeing their cards at showdown?

      4) How heavily does an opponent's call range affect my push range?

      Any input is appreciated and any feedback on if I'm approaching these problems in the right way would be great too!
  • 3 replies
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      1) It depends on the limper. Push much more often after someone who is running 50/15 than someone who is 20/0. The latter is more often trapping. The former may call with the top of his range, but that will be hands like QT and 55, and he will have to fold often.

      You should feel free to push more chips after one limper than you woudl open push. If you open push for 10 bb, you are risking 10 bb to try to take 1.5 bb in blinds. Pushing for 13 bb at 2.5bb in blinds+limp is similar.

      2) I'm not sure what you mean. VPIP of a limper? VPIP of the blinds?

      3) No, there is no direct method for estimating a calling range from VPIP. I recommend stereotyping players. Have an idea what range a reg will call in the big blind against a 10 bb push from the SB, from the button etc. Then use the VPIP/PFR stats and notes to try to identify which stereotype best fits a player.

      4) Your opponents' calling range can affect your pushing range greatly. When you have folding equity, your marginal pushes should be semibluffs. Against looser callers, you should drop the weaker semibluffing hands. Against tighter callers, add more semibluffing hands.

      When you are not risk-averse, there may be a lot of hands which are unexploitable pushes. This means they are correct pushes regardless of your opponent's calling range. You could even flip your hand face up and it would still be a correct push. Many ugly hands are unexploitable pushes for 10 bb when you get heads-up, e.g., K3o is an unexploitable push. Near the bubble, you can push wider against a good caller, but fewer hands are unexploitable pushes. If your image is loose and the big blind hates you, then you might have to push quite tightly.
    • Wohmfg
      Wohmfg
      Silver
      Joined: 12.11.2009 Posts: 500
      Question 2 was pretty much directly linked to 3 which you answered.

      Is being risk-averse only related to stack size or are there any other factors which affect it?

      Thanks for your answers, they're really helping me learn this game.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Your risk aversion primarily depends on the stack distribution. The blinds have a very tiny effect. If you require a risk premium of 5% against a player with blinds of 100/200, then your risk premium will be close to 50% with blinds of 50/100 or 200/400. You will be getting better odds, though. If the player is pushing 2000 chips from the small blind, then the equity you need to break even in chips is 47.5% at 50/100, 45% at 100/200, and 40% at 200/400. With a risk premium of 5%, you would want 52.5% equity, 50% equity, or 45% equity to call the push, respectively.

      Your risk aversion is not just affected by your stack size, but also the stack size of your opponent. You are more risk-averse against players who cover you by a lot than against players who cover you by a little, since it is worth more to cripple a player in addition to doubling up.

      The stacks of the players who have already folded affect your risk aversion. The presence of smaller stacks generally increases your risk aversion, particularly if you are risking bubbling out.