[NL20-NL50] NL 25 rush AA

    • goldchess
      goldchess
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.02.2010 Posts: 641
      Villain is 21/19/0.7 reg 110 hands
      On turn is it good to play wa/wb? River call is ok?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($22.95)
      BB ($10)
      UTG ($10.60)
      UTG+1 ($25)
      UTG+2 ($42.87)
      MP1 ($32.89)
      MP2 ($11.04)
      Hero ($25)
      BTN ($29)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: A:club:

      fold, fold, UTG+2 raises to $0.75, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.25, fold, fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $1.50

      FLOP ($4.85) T:diamond: T:club: K:diamond:

      UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+2 calls $3

      TURN ($10.85) T:diamond: T:club: K:diamond: K:club:

      UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($10.85) T:diamond: T:club: K:diamond: K:club: 2:club:

      UTG+2 bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50
  • 6 replies
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      I'd say he's got AdQd, AKs,AKo, JJ+ to get to the turn there. Maybe 1 more combo of AQ but probably not.

      QQ,JJ almost definitely don't donk there, AQ could AK definitely does.

      against AdQd, 1 more AQs, AKs,AKo, KK you've got 17% equity so I think a fold is in order.

      I'm not sure on his 3bet calling range but I doub't he's betting the river much wider there.
    • goldchess
      goldchess
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.02.2010 Posts: 641
      Yep think you are right about river, I didn't really think just pressed call like a :f_confused:
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      One option where you don´t have to make crying river call is if you bet yourself 5$ on the turn. he isn´t going to semibluff there with draws and won´t really c/r with Tx and he might easily just also call with kx allowing you to barrel with worse hands on the river. Either way you can control the bet size, sometimes get called by worse hands but most important don´t have to call his river bet
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      I really don't like the turn bet there.

      A. there are no draws now that the board 2pairs
      B. Almost nothing worse is calling. Nothing better is folding. Why else do you bet?

      It stops you getting bluffed but I don't think its +EV here

      Is 0.7 his ag factor or 3bet? if its agg then he's never bluffing the river anyway

      Just realised you hold the A :diamond: so flushdraws are very unlikely here. c/f turn c/f river IMO
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by bradomurder
      I really don't like the turn bet there.

      A. there are no draws now that the board 2pairs
      B. Almost nothing worse is calling. Nothing better is folding. Why else do you bet?

      It stops you getting bluffed but I don't think its +EV here

      Is 0.7 his ag factor or 3bet? if its agg then he's never bluffing the river anyway

      Just realised you hold the A :diamond: so flushdraws are very unlikely here. c/f turn c/f river IMO
      I thought a little about that hand and I think I still like betting
      - if we check we never almost never have there Kx, so he can turn whatever hand he called flop (his flop c/c range is definitely wider than Kx and Tx) into bluff and bet river himself knowing we don´t have Kx.
      - if he c/c flop with QJ or flushdraw, he still has equity against our hand, so taking pot down against these hands also isn´t bad
      - finally we control the size of the pot betting half pot size, likely almost never get bluffed and can take free showdown.
      With any other hand than aces I think c/f turn and c/f river is fine, but there I think we´re just ahead a little too often to give pot away
    • OZSA
      OZSA
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2009 Posts: 804
      I believe you have the same results if you bet only 3$ on the turn, if he's got nothing he fold, if he got a full he calls, even if he's calling a flushdraw, I cant imagine him betting it on the river, so.. bet/fold 3$ seems just as good imo. but like this river is easy fold, u cant beat his full..