[NL20-NL50] [NL50 6M]Turn/River Fullhouse as PFR v Rock

    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
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      • 05.11.2010, 15:08
      • This post has been edited 3 time(s), it was last edited by LemOn36: 05.11.2010 15:10.
      http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/869488

      Villain is a rock, 3% call PF, 0/4 raise cbet
      he is also passive and cbets just 50% and his overall aggro is 1
      3bet 6%
      120 hands

      Do you just pitch it on turn, or would you call river? I don't think there are flush draw hands in his range, and even if he has AKs I don't think passive rocks play it like this
  • 6 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      hard him to put higher set when board is that drawy to really b/f turn. And since all the draws missed then I thin you should c/c then river if you didn´t want to shove turn
      I´d personally bet/shove that every single time, since his turn raising range should be worse hands than higher sets
    • LemOn36
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      • 06.11.2010, 18:01
      • This post has been edited 9 time(s), it was last edited by LemOn36: 06.11.2010 18:07.
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      hard him to put higher set when board is that drawy to really b/f turn. And since all the draws missed then I thin you should c/c then river if you didn´t want to shove turn
      I´d personally bet/shove that every single time, since his turn raising range should be worse hands than higher sets
      What worse hands does a passive rock call flop minraise turn with?
      I believe he 3bets KK+ and we can discount but not eliminate QQ and I'd give him like 1.5 combos given positions, and and there will be very few if any SCs that he calls preflop that have a fd because of the Qh on board, note his 3% call preflop and 6% 3bet and that we raise UTG.
    • LemOn36
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      He can have some 5.5 combos of sets and quads, its hard to come up with enough hh SCs that a 3% call Rock calls pre vs utg range that match 5.5...

      Especially when the Qh is on board and we will have to discount more than half of FD hands on turn because I don't think a passive rock will play them like this more than half the time, esp if he doesn't have Ah.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      problem b/f set is that he you first only has there 120 hands and he isn´t really playing 5/5, but as you wrote:
      Villain is a rock, 15/11, 3% call open, passive
      0/4 raise cbet 6% 3bet
      So I think you can´t really fold out his calling range QT, he should mostly 3-bet with QQ and if he has there 66/QQ doesn´t he really raise flop often to protect his hand against draws. I admit his small raise on the turn seems strong but that won´t really isn´t enough that I´d b/f set for 100bb. Also if you out him on set, you can´t really b/c to hope free showdown at the river, so I would likely still shove turn, since I think he can raise there worse hands than sets. If you don´t agree, then fine. Poker has a lot of different situations where you want to fold big hands pf or postflop, but here I won´t really consider being one of them
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
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      • 07.11.2010, 20:18
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by LemOn36: 07.11.2010 20:19.
      Yeah I get it, but what are the specific worse hand combos that you mean?

      You shove because you put QT in his range?

      And why would he have to be 5/5, that would imply he NEVER calls preflop?

      If he calls all pocket pairs excl. KK AA and 50%combos of QQ thats 6%,for him to even have QTs it would have to be 8.8%+
    • LemOn36
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      Ok I ran it past some High stakes regs and it seems that I am paying too much attention to stats over small samples and treat them as reads :)

      Shove turn it is.