[NL20-NL50] SH50 rush 44 btn hits set

    • mrxLT
      mrxLT
      Silver
      Joined: 02.09.2008 Posts: 435
      Full Tilt - $0.50 NL RUSH (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $37.95
      UTG: $64.40
      MP: $51.85
      CO: $142.05
      Hero (BTN): $69.40
      SB: $107.45

      SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has 4:diamond: 4:club:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold, fold

      Flop: ($3.75, 2 players) 9:club: 4:spade: 3:diamond:
      CO bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75

      Turn: ($11.25, 2 players) 5:diamond:
      CO bets $5.00, Hero raises to $15.00, CO calls $10.00

      River: ($41.25, 2 players) K:diamond:
      CO bets $41.25, Hero raises to $49.15 and is all-in, CO calls $7.90

      Against unknown.
      When he pots this dry flop i put him on TP or overpair. I decided to just call because if he will pot the turn himsef he will build nice pot for me if not i have position to raise him and he might herofold overpair on this flop being oop and deep.
      On the turn i must raise for more value. Maybe little bigger to have better stack/pot ratio on the river.
      On the river i feel something is wrong with this hand and i might be beat but can i fold set in this spot? Im not worried about back door flush. Should i be? He might have set, but he shoud get it in on the turn.
      Thoughts?
  • 6 replies
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Hi,

      hmm, his line looks a bit like 6d5d, A2s, 76 (gutshot hitter).
      But I won't fold my set there, although you could save yourself 7,90$.

      What did he have?

      Best regards,
      Anin
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      20.00 on the turn.

      Fold river, he's not doing this with Aces, and you don't beat anything (he shows you KK I think >75% of the time, a flush the rest).
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      i'm folding here. unless he's spewing, he probably had u beat on the river. half potting on the turn looks very much like pricing himself cheap for the bd flush draw, while he could be slow playing his sets/straights(unlikely). i think against a decent opponent, i can find the fold here, since its much unlikely that one turns a made hand into a bluff at this level.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´m not really folding river, since his line looks quite weird, so he may take that line with bluffs or worse hands. I also wouldn´t shove river, since m not sure you´re ahead 50% also I might consider raising flop, since if players bet pot on that flop they are not really b/f that often and you would like to get all-in against their overpairs on that flop before board scarier to them
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      Kiatz, what could he possibly flat a raise on turn and shove on river that we beat? Can we actually put him on a bluff? He almost definitely has a made hand here, and his shove is very much turning his hand into a bluff(unlikely) but could either be overvaluing his hand(if he is fish), or valuing hands tt beat us. What kind of hands do u expect him to show if we called the river?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by supeyrio
      Kiatz, what could he possibly flat a raise on turn and shove on river that we beat? Can we actually put him on a bluff? He almost definitely has a made hand here, and his shove is very much turning his hand into a bluff(unlikely) but could either be overvaluing his hand(if he is fish), or valuing hands tt beat us. What kind of hands do u expect him to show if we called the river?
      problem just calling turn is that pot is too small and if he bets smt like 12$ on the river I think he won´t really call shove just with overpairs.
      I think he mostly doesn´t have there bluff, but at the same time don´t really expect him having also flush too often. He may take that line for example TT-QQ, very likely KK, not sure about AK/AA or smt like 56. Really hard to figure out if he turns smt into bluff and tries to bluff us out two pair+, that most of the times he shouldn´t or valuebetting there two pair+ thinking we would call down with worse hand
      Rush you can maybe see both plays and players make sometimes moves, that doesn´t have any sense, so for that reason I´m not really going to fold my bottom set and would call his river potsize bet.
      Also one hand that can make sense is K9. he is not sure if he has the best hand on the turn, but would bet pot river to get maximum value