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[NL20-NL50] nl50 SH - Rush - A3s - 2pair on turn - facing 2x overbet river

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($17.30)
      BB ($74.05)
      UTG ($29)
      UTG+1 ($50)
      CO ($116)
      Hero ($61.35)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: 3:club:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.75, fold, Hero calls $1.75, fold, fold

      FLOP ($4.25) T:heart: A:spade: 6:diamond:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($4.25) T:heart: A:spade: 6:diamond: 3:spade:

      UTG+1 bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

      RIVER ($15.25) T:heart: A:spade: 6:diamond: 3:spade: 7:heart:

      UTG+1 bets $27.50, Hero folds

      UTG+1 wins $14.50

      villain 24/19/3 wts 26, 298 hands/ cb 64%
      villain cb's 2/3 of the time and I would expect him to cb Axx flop very often unless he has air and gives up. When he doesnt cb I think either trapping or giving up.
      Villain overbets turn when we hit two pair, so call is ok - raise possible but we cant stand a 3b.
      River looks like a fold to me, vs this big overbet without reads. I'm guessing AA or TT that hoped to check/R flop. If he has AK, I dont think he bets so much since theres almost nothing that can call.

      any other thoughts?
  • 3 replies
    • AninIII
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944

      fold river is deffo possible according to villain's bet size.
      But I'm a showdown monkey and would call just to make a note on his play. ;-)
      AA, AT, TT, 66 and 89s are all possible but of course there are pure bluffs like missed backdoor-FDs and AK, AQ in his range (maybe).

      Best regards,
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Thing is I never have a super strong hand here, so villain shouldnt need to bet more than pot to get me off my hand.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would generally just b/f flop
      Don´t think he goes c/r too often, but he might easily c/c with KK-JJ or Tx
      And if he c/r then it is quite easy fold and you don´t loose that much value
      I would call his river overbet, it doesn´t make any sense to check flop and then start overbetting, since you can´t really have anything if you don´t bet flop, so he mostly want you to fold and he can really do that with anything that he decided to c/c or c/f flop