[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH AKs pre flop AI

    • gonepoker
      gonepoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 438
      Hi. UTG is a fish 82/13 , MP is a nitty tag 13/10. MP's raise range is 12% so I 3bet for value and because don't want fish to get in the pot for cheap + got position. Problem is that uknown player BB shoves. He looked like calling station from few previous hands but that does not mean that he is... Don't have idea about his 4bet shove range but if he shoves QQ+, AKs, AKo my equity is 41,9% and pot odds are 41% so it's call? Or if I think that he's calling station kind of player maybe I should assume that he has tighter range and I should fold? Thanks a lot for a help!

      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed)

      SB ($36.82)
      BB ($24.91)
      UTG ($26.36)
      MP ($20.39)
      Hero (CO) ($20)
      Button ($20)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K, A
      UTG calls $0.20, MP bets $0.90, Hero raises $3, 2 folds, BB raises $24.71 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls $17 (All-In)

      Flop: ($41.20) Q, 10, 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      Turn: ($41.20) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      River: ($41.20) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      Total pot: $41.20
  • 9 replies
    • nleeson111
      nleeson111
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2007 Posts: 25,296
      Vs. MP-Nit with PFT 10 i fold to his 4betshove. Shure, his Shoves looks like JJ+ and AK, but u didn´t have the Odds. For the Call u need 42%.
    • gonepoker
      gonepoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 438
      Originally posted by nleeson111
      Vs. MP-Nit with PFT 10 i fold to his 4betshove. Shure, his Shoves looks like JJ+ and AK, but u didn´t have the Odds. For the Call u need 42%.
      It is not MP-nit who shoved, that was BB. And if he shoves with your provided range that's a call for sure.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´m not really folding there AKs after I´ve put in 3$ of my 20$ stack. he can easily shove there a lot of times AK and you´re making there quite big mistake if you fold your hand
    • nleeson111
      nleeson111
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2007 Posts: 25,296
      Its not massiv +EV. The MP is nitty, Hero 3bets him and then cames a Cold4bet against that action. The Range from BB is imo QQ+ and maybe 1 or 2 combinations AK. Against this range doesnt has Hero the right odds, maybe its break even and onky push the variance.
      It´s NOT a mistake to fold!
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by nleeson111
      Its not massiv +EV. The MP is nitty, Hero 3bets him and then cames a Cold4bet against that action. The Range from BB is imo QQ+ and maybe 1 or 2 combinations AK. Against this range doesnt has Hero the right odds, maybe its break even and onky push the variance.
      It´s NOT a mistake to fold!
      yeah, we get around 42% against AK, QQ+

      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AcKc 41.90% 8,133,909 13,868,208
      QQ-AA, AK 58.10% 13,956,267 13,868,208

      So it is not really huge +EV to go against that range, but also a lot of times players would 4-bet there with AA/KK, against that we have 50% equity

      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AcKc 49.42% 5,811,684 13,761,333
      QQ, AK 50.58% 6,111,543 13,761,333

      So folding there AKs is quite big mistake. Also sometimes you see player shoving there random two cards, since he is tilted, which means AK is way ahead at that point his shoving range


      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AcKc 59.55% 42,546,689 14,840,100
      QQ, AK, 78, A5, 66 40.45% 26,516,107 14,840,100

      To my general advice is, if you have more than 30bb in your roll, you really don´t mind taking flips with AK, at least you know you´re not running to AA/KK. You take most of the money anyway with your postflop game and to able 3-bet people, 4-bet bluff you have to able to get all-in pf with AK to make it profitable
    • nleeson111
      nleeson111
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2007 Posts: 25,296
      Sry, but ur ranges are not realistic. BB is complete unknown and u can´t take hands like A5 or 78.
      The hole pot after Call will be 41,20. If u consider the rake, its maybe 39,50. So Hero gets odds for 43% equity. There is no realistic range for a +ev call.
      We discussed this hand in german community. The result was unanimously: Fold!
      Nice Weekend.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by nleeson111
      Sry, but ur ranges are not realistic. BB is complete unknown and u can´t take hands like A5 or 78.
      The hole pot after Call will be 41,20. If u consider the rake, its maybe 39,50. So Hero gets odds for 43% equity. There is no realistic range for a +ev call.
      We discussed this hand in german community. The result was unanimously: Fold!
      Nice Weekend.
      well I disagree, but nevertheless I agree your result. If you want to fold it is not a mistake, just as I said before:
      - some players would not shove there KK/AA, but rather 4-bet small, min 4-bet or flat call, which means our equity against QQ, AK is around 50%
      - since he is unknown you can´t make assumption his shoving range is KK+, so I added some hands that he may shove if he is maniac or tilted

      Btw consider that we have to fold there AK, we also have to fold QQ

      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      QQ 40.21% 114,253,440 11,080,068
      QQ-AA, AK 59.79% 172,607,388 11,080,068

      Which means bb bluffshove profitable almost every 2 consider how wide is our 3-bet and MP opening range, since we can only call KK+?
    • nleeson111
      nleeson111
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2007 Posts: 25,296
      Yes, i fold QQ too!
      The problem i see, it´s only NL20 and i never have seen there an unknown player 4bet-shoves with garbage. I think it´s reasonable to take a tight range QQ+ and some AK-combos.
      But different views are OK.
      Thanks for interesting discussion.
      GL!
      I ´ll not nerve u again :f_love:
      Actually i work on my bad english.
      Nice weekend!
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      yeah, different point of views are always good, since they make you defend and think harder on your positions.
      Gl and ty for good discussion :)