[NL20-NL50] KTo blind battle bluff

    • z1pz0r
      z1pz0r
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      UTG ($25)
      MP ($32.12)
      CO ($25.35)
      Button ($43.15)
      SB ($25.10)
      Hero (BB) ($25.65)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 10
      4 folds, SB bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.50) 3, 6, 3 (2 players)
      SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

      Turn: ($3.50) 4 (2 players)
      SB bets $2.50, Hero raises $7.50, SB calls $5

      River: ($18.50) 7 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $8.80, SB calls $8.80

      Total pot: $36.10

      Villan is 16/12 with 32% steal from SB. Cbet 73% flop, 83% turn, WTS 26

      I thought I'm able to represent random 3x, 57, 44 ...
      Thoughts?
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      What do you think his range is on the turn?

      Most of the hands he calls the turn with (minus the flush draws) have not changed on the river. Given your small bet on the river I believe he'll look you up there almost always with his 1p+ type hands. Also keep in mind that if you actually had those 57, 44, 3x hands you are most likely shoving the river so if I am to bluff there I'll do the same (unless I can't expect villain to fold the made hands for a shove I'll bet small to get him to fold the draws).

      Also, keep in mind that your bluff only has to work ~33% of the time.
    • z1pz0r
      z1pz0r
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      Thanks, but where did u get 33%?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello z1pz0r,

      There is no way he is going to lay down the hand on river against such a bet, while he Called turn, he most likely will Call the river bet also. So likely just Check behind or river.

      33% comes from such calculation:

      Pot = $18,5
      To Call = $8,80

      8,8/(18,5+8,8) = 32,23%

      This means BreakEven Call = 32,23%. Has to work that much.

      Best regards.
    • z1pz0r
      z1pz0r
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      Okay thanks!