[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - AA - 240bb eff. oop

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($154)
      BB ($16.80)
      UTG ($52.75)
      Hero ($118)
      CO ($50.10)
      BTN ($120)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: A:heart:

      UTG raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $4.50, fold, BTN calls $4.50, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($11) 5:club: 7:club: J:club:

      Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7

      TURN ($25) 5:club: 7:club: J:club: 8:spade:

      Hero bets $13.50, BTN calls $13.50

      RIVER ($52) 5:club: 7:club: J:club: 8:spade: J:diamond:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $41, Hero calls $41

      villain 19/15/4 wts 17/ hs 132
      Ok to call off river? Main hand I was worried about was JJ but very unlikely now a second J appeared. So not too many hands that beat me (55/77). I think villain could have QQ here too (maybe even KK). I doubt he calls AJo/KJo/QJo in 3b pot and AJs/KJs/QJs may even fold on turn.

      AcKc/AcQc is also possible but only couple of combos and villain may sometimes raise turn
  • 14 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you have to fold river
      He is not turning his TT/99 into bluff and I think he would raise flop with draws rather than float twice and bet big on the river
      Also very likely he doesn´t bet that river with QQ/KK at least that biog amount so to call him down he has to bet there his floats or turn his TT/99 into bluff to bet that amount on the river
      You ofcourse have option to bet 22$ on the river and fold to shove, it just sucks that you don´t have there any value hand that can stand river shove
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      Hmmm. What's his value range here that he doesnt raise at least by the turn?
      And are you sure he raises draws on flop give we are so deep and he can never be happy about going broke on flop?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Hmmm. What's his value range here that he doesnt raise at least by the turn?
      And are you sure he raises draws on flop give we are so deep and he can never be happy about going broke on flop?
      Very likely Jx and high flushes. Agree that he should raise turn or flop with sets, but consider you´re going to b/f turn very likely all your overpairs and continue only better hands then he might also take other line and wait till river.
      Not really sure he raises draws especially with hands that has showdown value but also at that point don´t see him betting that big on the river, since you´re not folding there QQ+ (99+)
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      Sorry to be difficult, but I want to understand which hands villain thinks I have that he can get paid off by, if this is a value bet.

      If you advise we fold QQ/KK/AA in this spot, doesnt villain have to think we may not pay off such a big bet? So, if we look at it from villains point of view, what worse hands will call such a big bet?

      High flushes have to be somewhat scared about the paired bd - dont they raise on the turn? Jx is the most likely hand, but how many Jx hands does he have by the turn? This is a 3b pot, and villain is a reg, so I dont really see hands like e.g. JTo in his preflop range. I would say he has at most {AsJs, KsJs, KhJh, QsJs, QhJh, JsTs, JhTh} and with 3 :club: on board he cant be happy about just top pair, no draw in a 3b pot. (I.e. he cant have Jx suited with any clubs)
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well imo he never has a flush there since he would be raising that at some point in the hand. So he could possibly have a J his not willing to fold to 2 barrels, or he has a set and doesn't want to raise and risk getting shoved on 240bb deep. Either case your beat here almost always imo unless his pure bluffing. I doubt he ever makes such a big river bet with QQ here. Or any hand that has showdown value.
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      well unless he busted his A :club: flush draws. only hands he could possibly have here that is betting so big on the river is Jx and A :club: x busted. so does his Jx combos make up more than 70% of his betting range to make calling down unprofitable?
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well i also think its possible for him to have a set here. I doubt he feels comfortable going broke with 55, 77 on this flop since it gets really ugly if you get shoved on so deep. I mean from villians point of view if you would CR the flop with 55 and get shoved on can you ever see yourself as good?

      You just get into an ugly spot where your forced to fold a set since hero can easily have a flush or JJ here and has low sets crushed. Only hand his beating that hero would shove over his flop CR is AA with a flush draw that still has decent equity against him.

      So one the river there's also possible for him to have 55 and 77 and a few J's. The question is how many hands is he bluffing with here that manage to the river and imo its mostly Ahigh flush draws that he might bluff with, but its hard to tell with out any reads that his bluffing his busted flush in big pots.
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      This hand looks very weird, coz I think every set or good draw would raise flop but overpairs and flushes and pure floats would call. He could call down overpairs for all streets, but if he had nut flush, I think calling here is a mistake, coz he could get it in on flop, if u had over + club, but if other club comes, he cannot get any value. So, if u think he could have a flush there, u should fold that river, if dont, call. But only hand I can c betting here is KK, all pure floats should be folded on turn, only if he decides hand like TT or QQ turn into bluff
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      oh i forgot it's deep. yes then what matejm47 say is very much true. i think a fold is good, a block bet on the river should also be good as i doubt he'll raise Jx for thin value
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      yeah, the most interesting spot on that hand is river bet. I´d expect it go check/check quite a lot of times or if he want to valuebet QQ/KK then likely betting smt like 22-33$. 41$ seems huge bet to get value from worse hands, so at that case he is either bluffing or imo valuebetting there Jx+
      Agree he should raise flop sets, but he may also just call, since really what hands are you going all-in 240bb deep. He may just call with lower flushes again the same reason or maybe even A high flush. In the end really bad spot and I think maybe b/f river yourself 25$ would be better than c/c big bet. So did he have the busted flush draw or were you crushed by Jx+?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      So did he have the busted flush draw or were you crushed by Jx+?


      Busted fd with AcKd. Bet size looked too bluffy to fold imo.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Tim64
      So did he have the busted flush draw or were you crushed by Jx+?


      Busted fd with AcKd. Bet size looked too bluffy to fold imo.
      yeah I guess call is fine then. I think it mostly depends on the player, since some would definitely raise flop with his draw to force out better hands, since you can´t really have the nuts and would very likely b/c once and fold to big turn bet. Some would take call, call, bet line although not really sure what better hands they expect to fold on the river
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,403
      although not really sure what better hands they expect to fold on the river


      AA?

      ;)

      Thanks for your comments anyway - it is obviously a pretty tough spot and even though I made correct call in this hand, it's hard to know whether call is profitable on average...
    • MathhNes
      MathhNes
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2009 Posts: 953
      Nice analysis Tim, i like what you said about bet sizing and that it was likely to be a bluff therefore