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[NL20-NL50] NL100 Rush - SH - JJ

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($80.70)
      Hero ($77.85)
      UTG ($56)
      UTG+1 ($50)
      CO ($65.70)
      BTN ($64.10)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: J:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, fold, Hero raises to $5.50, BTN calls $4

      FLOP ($11.25) J:spade: Q:club: 2:club:

      Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

      TURN ($23.25) J:spade: Q:club: 2:club: K:club:

      Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

      RIVER ($51.25) J:spade: Q:club: 2:club: K:club: A:heart:


      best line on river given the board and action?
      villain decent reg: 19/16/3 wts 26 1.1k hs/ fold v 3b 68%/stl 35%

  • 5 replies
    • MatejM47
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well i doubt im folding here. Assuming he 3-bets QQ+ most of the time you can be quite sure he doesn't have a bigger set, and there isn't really that many flush combos in his range since he can't have AJ-AKs here. Assuming he doesn't call with low SC there's only ATs left from flushes, maybe 9Ts if his ever calling that but i doubt it since your not really deep.

      Also there shouldn't be that many T's in his range that can get to the river. I think he folds TT either on flop or turn AT is probably folding the flop unless he has flushdraw as well and its hard to tell if his calling KT vs 3-bets. I think there's a big chance of him having KQ or or AQ with Ac that can get to the river or maybe 22 but i doubt he'd play them that way.

      The problem it really hard for him to call here if you do shove since he can't beat anything but a bluff. Your whole value range has him beat. I think i would just check call and hope he doesn't show up with 5c6c or some crap like that lol.
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Nice analysis, MatejM47.

      I also agree - after the hand I though it was difficult for him to have Tx as TT folds by the turn almost always.

      He had K :heart: Q :heart: here and I indeed checked and he checked behind. I am not sure he calls a bet here. His two pair is counterfeited/beaten by so many better hands that he has to put me on air to call...
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      not really sure that TT especially with Tc would fold on the flop, but yeah you´re very often ahead on the riverbut can´t really call river bet, since no-one is going to valuebet there two pair hands, so if you check it should be c/f
      But I think you can bet river yourself 20$, since very likely he would call you down with two pair hands and don´t have to worry c/f your set
    • AlCaTrAzzALZ
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 726
      Can I ask why your flop and turn bets are so small?
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Can I ask why your flop and turn bets are so small?

      Yeah - I try to extract from worse and then I got nervous on the turn...