ICM calculator

    • z4tz
      z4tz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 2,043
      Im sitting atm trying to make an icm calculator for the fun and understanding of it.

      Currently stuck at trying to calculating 3rd place finishing probabilities.


      prob of finish 3rd= prob of j player coming 1st * prob of k player coming 2nd * my stack / (total num of chips - j player chips - k player chips)

      player j and k is just running over the other players and summing over all possible 1st and 2nd places, making sure one player doesn't end up in several places at once.
      Possible cases with 4 players assuming me as player 4.

      j,k
      1,2
      1,3
      2,1
      2,3
      3,1
      3,2


      This does not give me correct values, have i missed something?
  • 2 replies
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Rather than the probability that player k comes in second, you want the conditional probability that player k comes in second given that player j comes in first.

      By the way, if you want to compute probabilities of finishing in much lower places, the nested loop approach is too slow. The one MTT ICM calculator I know uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which is accurate enough for some purposes, but there are alternatives which are faster.
    • z4tz
      z4tz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 2,043
      ofc! damn the brain works slow sometimes :) thanks

      Yeah i read something about that, but im not that serious atm, this is more for the fun of it.

      Thanks for the quick answer btw!